Risk Assessment for Parents Who Suspect Their Child Has Autism Spectrum Disorder: Machine Learning Approach (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Parents are likely to seek Web-based communities to verify their suspicions of autism spectrum disorder markers in their child. Automated tools support human decisions in many domains and could therefore potentially support concerned parents. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to test the feasibility of assessing autism spectrum disorder risk in parental concerns from Web-based sources, using automated text analysis tools and minimal standard questioning. METHODS Participants were 115 parents with concerns regarding their child’s social-communication development. Children were 16- to 30-months old, and 57.4% (66/115) had a family history of autism spectrum disorder. Parents reported their concerns online, and completed an autism spectrum disorder-specific screener, the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers-Revised, with Follow-up (M-CHAT-R/F), and a broad developmental screener, the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ). An algorithm predicted autism spectrum disorder risk using a combination of the parent's text and a single screening question, selected by the algorithm to enhance prediction accuracy. RESULTS Screening measures identified 58% (67/115) to 88% (101/115) of children at risk for autism spectrum disorder. Children with a family history of autism spectrum disorder were 3 times more likely to show autism spectrum disorder risk on screening measures. The prediction of a child’s risk on the ASQ or M-CHAT-R was significantly more accurate when predicted from text combined with an M-CHAT-R question selected (automatically) than from the text alone. The frequently automatically selected M-CHAT-R questions that predicted risk were: following a point, make-believe play, and concern about deafness. CONCLUSIONS The internet can be harnessed to prescreen for autism spectrum disorder using parental concerns by administering a few standardized screening questions to augment this process.