scholarly journals An Agent-Based Model of the Local Spread of SARS-CoV-2: Modeling Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Staffini ◽  
Akiko Kishi Svensson ◽  
Ung-Il Chung ◽  
Thomas Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND The spread of SARS-CoV-2, originating in Wuhan, China, was classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The governments of affected countries have implemented various measures to limit the spread of the virus. The starting point of this paper is the different government approaches, in terms of promulgating new legislative regulations to limit the virus diffusion and to contain negative effects on the populations. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to study how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is linked to government policies and to analyze how different policies have produced different results on public health. METHODS Considering the official data provided by 4 countries (Italy, Germany, Sweden, and Brazil) and from the measures implemented by each government, we built an agent-based model to study the effects that these measures will have over time on different variables such as the total number of COVID-19 cases, intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rates, and recovery and case-fatality rates. The model we implemented provides the possibility of modifying some starting variables, and it was thus possible to study the effects that some policies (eg, keeping the national borders closed or increasing the ICU beds) would have had on the spread of the infection. RESULTS The 4 considered countries have adopted different containment measures for COVID-19, and the forecasts provided by the model for the considered variables have given different results. Italy and Germany seem to be able to limit the spread of the infection and any eventual second wave, while Sweden and Brazil do not seem to have the situation under control. This situation is also reflected in the forecasts of pressure on the National Health Services, which see Sweden and Brazil with a high occupancy rate of ICU beds in the coming months, with a consequent high number of deaths. CONCLUSIONS In line with what we expected, the obtained results showed that the countries that have taken restrictive measures in terms of limiting the population mobility have managed more successfully than others to contain the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the model demonstrated that herd immunity cannot be reached even in countries that have relied on a strategy without strict containment measures.

scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 outbreaks and the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted across countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward De Brouwer ◽  
Daniele Raimondi ◽  
Yves Moreau
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractOn March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak, originally started in China, a global pandemic. Since then, the outbreak has indeed spread across all continents, threatening the public health of numerous countries. Although the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of COVID-19 is relatively low when optimal level of healthcare is granted to the patients, the high percentage of severe cases developing severe pneumonia and thus requiring respiratory support is worryingly high, and could lead to a rapid saturation of Intensive Care Units (ICUs). To overcome this risk, most countries enacted COVID-19 containment measures. In this study, we use a Bayesian SEIR epidemiological model to perform a parametric regression over the COVID-19 outbreaks data in China, Italy, Belgium, and Spain, and estimate the effect of the containment measures on the basic reproduction ratio R0.We find that the effect of these measures is detectable, but tends to be gradual, and that a progressive strengthening of these measures usually reduces the R0 below 1, granting a decay of the outbreak. We also discuss the biases and inconsistencies present in the publicly available data on COVID-19 cases, providing an estimate for the actual number of cases in Italy on March 12, 2020. Lastly, despite the data and model’s limitations, we argue that the idea of “flattening the curve” to reach herd immunity is likely to be unfeasible.

scholarly journals VAKSINASI MASAL COVID-19 DI UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH MATARAM KOTA MATARAM PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA BARAT

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 713
Author(s):  
Evi Diliana Rospia ◽  
Dwi Kartika Cahyaningtyas ◽  
Desi Rofita ◽  
Cahaya Indah Lestari ◽  
Ni Wayan Ari Adi Putri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Difficulty Breathing ◽  
Health Organization

ABSTRAKNovel coronavirus 2019 atau virus corona sindrom pernafasan akut parah yang disebut COVID-19. Gejala klinis utama yang muncul yaitu demam, batuk dan kesulitan bernapas. World Health Organization (WHO) melaporkan 11.84.226 kasus konfirmasi dengan 545.481 kematian di seluruh dunia (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4,6%). Di Indonesia kasus meningkat dan menyebar dengan cepat, kasus pertama pada tanggal 2 Maret 2020, pada tanggal 9 Juli 2020 Kementerian Kesehatan melaporkan 70.736 kasus konfirmasi COVID-19 dengan 3.417 kasus meninggal (CFR 4,8%). Kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini bertujuan terbentuknya herd immunity (kekebalan kelompok) dan berkurangnya angka kematian akibat COVID-19 pada masyarakat. Kegiatan vaksinasi masal dilaksanakan di Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram Kota Mataram Nusa Tenggara Barat, dan jenis vaksin yang digunakan pada kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini adalah Sinovac. Jumlah responden yang mengikuti kegiatan ini sebanyak 1.000 orang. Hasil pengabdian didapatkan jumlah yang melakukan vaksinasi sebanyak 1000 orang yang terdiri dari masyarakat umum dan karyawan Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram. Kata kunci: vaksinasi; covid-19; komunitas; indonesia. ABSTRACTNovel coronavirus 2019 or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus called COVID-19. The main symptoms that appear are fever, cough and difficulty breathing. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 11,84,226 confirmed cases with 545,481 deaths worldwide (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4.6%) In Indonesia cases are increasing and spreading rapidly, the first case on March 2, 2020, on July 9 2020 The Ministry of Health reported 70,736 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 3,417 deaths (CFR 4.8%). This mass vaccination activity aims to form herd immunity and reduce the death rate due to COVID-19 in the community. The mass vaccination activity was carried out at the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram, and the type of vaccine used in this mass vaccination activity was Sinovac. The number of respondents who participated in this activity was 1,000 people. The results of the service found that the number of people who vaccinated was 1000 people consisting of the general public and employees of the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram. Keywords: vaccination; covid-19; community; indonesia. 

scholarly journals Characterizing the Qatar advanced-phase SARS-CoV-2 epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laith J. Abu-Raddad ◽  
Hiam Chemaitelly ◽  
Houssein H. Ayoub ◽  
Zaina Al Kanaani ◽  
Abdullatif Al Khal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Antibody Prevalence ◽  
Advanced Phase ◽  
Cumulative Rate ◽  
Blood Specimens ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThe overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8–28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6–7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5–19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7–17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3–24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2–48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5–92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.

scholarly journals Vaccination Coverage for Routine Vaccines and Herd Immunity Levels against Measles and Pertussis in the World in 2019

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 256
Author(s):  
Pedro Plans-Rubió
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Immunization Programs ◽  
National Immunization ◽  
The World ◽  
Measles Vaccination ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Health Organization

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Global Vaccine Action Plan with the objective to promote essential vaccinations in all countries and achieve at least 90% vaccination coverage for all routine vaccines by 2020. The study assessed the mean percentages of vaccination coverage in 2019 for 13 routine vaccines, vaccination coverage variation from 2015 to 2019, and herd immunity levels against measles and pertussis in 2019 in countries and regions of WHO. In 2019, the mean percentages of vaccination coverage were lower than 90% for 10 (78.9%) routine vaccines. The mean percentages of vaccination coverage also decreased from 2015 to 2019 for six (46.2%) routine vaccines. The prevalence of individuals with vaccine-induced measles immunity in the target measles vaccination population was 88.1%, and the prevalence of individuals with vaccine-induced pertussis immunity in the target pertussis vaccination population was 81.1%. Herd immunity against measles viruses with Ro = 18 was established in 63 (32.5%) countries but not established in any region. Herd immunity against pertussis agents was not established in any country and in any region of WHO. National immunization programs must be improved to achieve ≥90% vaccination coverage in all countries and regions. Likewise, it is necessary to achieve ≥95% vaccination coverage with two doses of measles vaccines and three doses of pertussis vaccines in all countries and regions.

Healthcare Management During a Pandemic: The Other Side of the Coin for the Treatment of Covid-19 Infection

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danila De Vito ◽  
Antonio Fusco ◽  
Caterina Benincasa ◽  
Luca Laghi ◽  
Francesco M. Ceruso
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Healthcare Management ◽  
World Health ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Worldwide Population ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
The Social ◽  
Health Organization

Background: World Health Organization (WHO) has increasingly improved the guidelines to tackle the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) among the worldwide population. In this context, each country has introduced specific social, healthcare, political and macroeconomic measures to face COVID pandemic locally. Objective: The general aim of this comparative overview is to highlight the most significant effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the main healthcare systems. Also, we critically analyzed the macroeconomic variables and the most promising solutions to improve both healthcare system and its related risk management, taking into specific consideration the most industrialized countries. Method: The main strategy has been built on a renewed concept of the hospital, rebuilding the old concepts of “triage” and “intensive care”. Recently, COVID-19 hospitals have allowed to cater the patients affected by COVID-19. Moreover, the reshaping of several healthcare policies and requirements has led to several positive effects, such as the recruitment of a huge number of human resources in the healthcare systems. Nevertheless, several negative effects have also impacted the communities mostly subjected to infections. Conclusion: Undoubtedly, the national healthcare systems have somehow addressed the people’s needs, trying not to neglect the social, healthcare, economic and political aspects. In our overview, we have reported how the different actions taken in the last months, have resulted in different outcomes.

scholarly journals The health effects of quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic

Work ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-527
Author(s):  
Maryam Feiz Arefi ◽  
Amin Babaei-Pouya ◽  
Mohsen Poursadeqiyan
Keyword(s):  
Health Effects ◽  
World Health ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Social Hygiene ◽  
Social Communications ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Made In

BACKGROUND: Quarantine is considered as an effective solution in the early stages of an epidemic. In the case of the coronavirus epidemic, quarantine was also recommended and implemented as a significant guideline to prevent the disease. However, despite the benefits of quarantine, there are also complications and problems. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to investigate the health effects of quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This study was conducted as a literature review through searching the databases Google Scholar, PubMed, and Science Direct for papers published before July 2020. The research was conducted based on the keywords “Coronavirus,” “COVID-19,” and “quarantine.” The references of the papers were also reviewed to find the ones not found in the databases. The guidelines published by reputable organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were used in this study. RESULTS: Although quarantine is applied as an important and primary solution in the outbreak of epidemics, in cases of pandemics, it may not be free of negative effects on individuals and public health. However, because of the need to reopen and restart social and economic activities, some changes should be made in lifestyles and work activities. Using cyberspace and telework can be helpful. As the findings showed, COVID-19 bubbles can be used to restore social communications. CONCLUSION: Using masks, avoiding unnecessary gatherings, complying with personal and social hygiene, and respecting social distancing can be valuable solutions that, if implemented properly, can decrease the rate of the disease significantly. It is also emphasized that quarantine is still necessary and important as the best solution for sick people and individuals who are suspected carriers of the disease.

scholarly journals Safety and Efficacy of Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 Infection

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1718-1722
Author(s):  
Alberto Boretti
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Late Infection ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Overwhelming Evidence ◽  
Health Organization

This work summarizes the available evidence of the use of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine (CQ/HCQ) in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most of the published works indicate CQ/HCQ is likely effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection, almost 100% in prophylaxis and mild-medium severity cases and 60% in late infection cases. The percentage of positive works is larger if those works conducted under a probable conflict of interest are excluded from the list. Despite this overwhelming evidence from independent studies, the use of CQ/HCQ is currently limited or prevented in many western countries, based on a very singular examination of the science. The case of a work published in late May 2020, despite being openly defective and then retracted, prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to ban the use of CQ/HCQ. This position has not yet rectified, thanks to the results of the not less questionable RECOVERY trial, where very sick patients were administered more than double the dose, over more than double the time, recommended for asymptomatic patients in current protocols of other countries, where CQ/HCQ are used for asymptomatic and mild but not severe pneumonia critically ill patients. While the case fatality rate does not depend only on therapies, it is finally shown based on the number of cases and fatalities per million and the case fatality rate as the western countries enforcing the ban on CQ/HCQ did not perform better, but much worse, than other countries, also because of therapies.

scholarly journals Are the Objectives Proposed by the WHO for Routine Measles Vaccination Coverage and Population Measles Immunity Sufficient to Achieve Measles Elimination from Europe?

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 218
Author(s):  
Pedro Plans-Rubió
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Measles Elimination ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Measles Vaccination ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Measles Vaccination Coverage

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) proposed two-dose measles vaccination coverage of at least 95% of the population and percentages of measles immunity in the population of 85%−95% in order to achieve measles elimination in Europe. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine the measles vaccination coverage required to establish herd immunity against measles viruses with basic reproduction numbers (Ro) ranging from 6 to 60, and (2) to assess whether the objectives proposed by the WHO are sufficient to establish herd immunity against measles viruses. Methods: The herd immunity effects of the recommended objectives were assessed by considering the prevalence of protected individuals required to establish herd immunity against measles viruses with Ro values ranging from 6 to 60. Results: The study found that percentages of two-dose measles vaccination coverage from 88% to 100% could establish herd immunity against measles viruses with Ro from 6 to 19, assuming 95% measles vaccination effectiveness. The study found that the objective of 95% for two-dose measles vaccination coverage proposed by the WHO would not be sufficient to establish herd immunity against measles viruses with Ro ≥ 10, assuming 95% measles vaccination effectiveness. By contrast, a 97% measles vaccination coverage objective was sufficient to establish herd immunity against measles viruses, with Ro values from 6 to 13. Measles immunity levels recommended in individuals aged 1−4 years (≥85%) and 5−9 years (≥90%) might not be sufficient to establish herd immunity against most measles viruses, while those recommended in individuals aged 10 or more years (≥95%) could be sufficient to establish herd immunity against measles viruses with Ro values from 6 to 20. Conclusion: To meet the goal of measles elimination in Europe, it is necessary to achieve percentages of two-dose measles vaccination coverage of at least 97%, and measles immunity levels in children aged 1−9 years of at least 95%.

scholarly journals COVID-19: update of the Italian situation

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 834-837
Author(s):  
Carla Prezioso ◽  
Valeria Pietropaolo
Keyword(s):  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
Italian Territory

AbstractOn the March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak as a pandemic. The first cases in Italy were reported on January 30, 2020, and quickly the number of cases escalated. On March 20, 2020, according to the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) and National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), the peak of COVID-19 cases reported in Italy reached the highest number, surpassing those in China. The Italian government endorsed progressively restrictive measures initially at the local level, and finally, at the national level with a lockdown of the entire Italian territory up to 3 May 2020. The complete Italian territory closing slowed down the contagion. This review retraces the main numbers of the pandemic in Italy. Although in decline, the new reported cases remain high in the northern regions. Since drugs or vaccines are still not available, the described framework highlights the importance of the containment measures to be able to quickly identify all the potential transmission hotspots and keep control subsequent epidemic waves of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Formation and Continuation of Thermal Energy Community Systems: An Explorative Agent-Based Model for the Netherlands

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javanshir Fouladvand ◽  
Niek Mouter ◽  
Amineh Ghorbani ◽  
Paulien Herder
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Energy ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Energy Community ◽  
Community Systems

Energy communities are key elements in the energy transition at the local level as they aim to generate and distribute energy based on renewable energy technologies locally. The literature on community energy systems is dominated by the study of electricity systems. Yet, thermal energy applications cover 75% of the total energy consumption in households and small businesses. Community-driven initiatives for local generation and distribution of thermal energy, however, remain largely unaddressed in the literature. Since thermal energy communities are relatively new in the energy transition discussions, it is important to have a better understanding of thermal energy community systems and how these systems function. The starting point of this understanding is to study factors that influence the formation and continuation of thermal energy communities. To work towards this aim, an abstract agent-based model has been developed that explores four seemingly trivial factors, namely: neighborhood size, minimum member requirement, satisfaction factor and drop-out factor. Our preliminary modelling results indicate correlations between thermal community formation and the ’formation capability’ (the percentage of households that joined) and with the satisfaction of households. No relation was found with the size of the community (in terms of number of households) or with the ‘drop-out factor’ (individual households that quit after the contract time).

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