A Study of the Declining Birth Rate in Japan - For Reasons of Decrease Total Fertility Rate -

2014 ◽  
Vol null (67) ◽  
pp. 543-564
Author(s):  
오수문
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

scholarly journals Smart Fert: Aplikasi Praktis, Valid, dan Mudah Untuk Mengukur Indikator Fertilitas di Era Otonomi Daerah

Populasi ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Lutfi Agus Salim ◽  
Lutfan Lazuardi ◽  
Kuntoro Kuntoro
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Visual Basic ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
General Fertility Rate

Indikator fertilitas, seperti Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), General Fertility Rate (GFR), dan Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR), untuk mengukur kinerja pengendalian penduduk setiap tahun di level kabupaten/kota sejak otonomi daerah sering tidak tersedia. Aplikasi sistem informasi fertilitas Smart Fert sebagai alat untuk mengukur indikator fertilitas yang praktis, valid, dan mudah diaplikasikan sangat layak untuk dikembangkan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan aplikasi Smart Fert serta menguji hasil perhitungan indikator fertilitas dari aplikasi Smart Fert dibandingkan dengan perhitungan dari hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010. Penelitian ini merancang aplikasi Smart Fert berbasis bahasa visual basic. Untuk mengukur ketepatan dan kevalidan hasil perhitungan fertilitas dari aplikasi Smart Fert, maka hasilnya dibandingkan dengan standar yang baik, yaitu hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hasil perhitungan fertilitas dengan aplikasi Smart Fert tidak menunjukkan perbedaan signifikan dengan hasil metode langsung Sensus Penduduk 2010. Dengan demikian, aplikasi Smart Fert dapat dipakai sebagai alat penghitung indikator fertilitas yang praktis, valid, dan mudah diimplementasikan untuk mengukur kinerja pengendalian penduduk di tingkat kabupaten/kota.

Trends and Differentials in Moslem fertility

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa H. Nagi
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Fertility Differentials

SummaryThis paper examines data on fertility levels in 33 Moslem countries between 1960 and 1980. Fertility measures include crude birth rate, total fertility rate and age-specific birth rate, and the percentage change in them between 1960 and 1980.The analysis focuses on: (1) the current status of Moslem fertility in comparison to non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) the emerging fertility differentials among Moslem countries; (3) how much of the recent fertility declines in some Moslem countries is associated with modernization variables and with family planning efforts.The results indicate that: (1) Moslem fertility remains universally high and is generally higher than in non-Moslem countries in the same region; (2) very few Moslem countries have succeeded in bringing down their level of fertility to justify a search for the predictors of Moslem fertility levels; (3) in spite of a sufficient range of variations in the economic and social correlates of fertility, the corresponding fertility variables in these countries do not suggest that the reproductive behaviour of Moslem women has reacted to such variations; (4) efforts directed towards stronger family planning programmes are clearly related to fertility decline.

scholarly journals Implementasi Model Perhitungan Perkiraan Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Berdasarkan Efektifitas Penggunaan Alat Kontrasepsi di Provinsi Jawa Barat

Matematika ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gani Gunawan ◽  
Eti Kurniati ◽  
Icih Sukarsih
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Method ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Census ◽  
West Java

Abstrak. Perhitungan jumlah penduduk dapat dilakukan secara langsung melalui suatu sensus penduduk. Salah satu faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi jumlah penduduk pada suatu wilayah adalah tingkat kelahiran atau angka fertilitas. Namun hasil pendataan yang dilakukan pada umumnya hanya memberikan informasi jumlah penduduk yang hidup pada saat sensus diadakan dan tidak mencatat secara lengkap jumlah bayi lahir hidup yang kemudian meninggal pada waktu sensus. Hal tersebut menyebabkan perhitungan angka fertilitas secara langsung tidak mungkin dilakukan, sehingga diperlukan suatu metode Matematika yang secara tak langsung dapat digunakan untuk menghitung angka fertilitas di suatu wilayah. Dalam makalah ini akan diperlihatkan suatu cara perhitungan kelahiran atau fertilitas secara tidak langsung, dimana cara ini dapat menentukan angka kelahiran tercegah sebagai indikator keberhasilan pengendalian jumlah penduduk melalui program Keluarga Berencana (KB), sehingga melalui perhitungan  ini  dapat ditentukan angka fertilitas total yang didasarkan pada efektifitas penggunaan alat kontrasepsi.Kata Kunci : keluarga berencana (KB), total fertility rate (TFR), crude birth rate (CBR)Abstract. (Implementation of the Calculation Model for Estimated Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Based on the Effectiveness Use of Contraception in West Java Province) The calculation of the population can be done directly through a population census. One factor that can affect the population in a region is the birth rate or fertility rate. However, the results of data collection carried out, in general only provide information on the number of people living at the time the census is held, and not complete records of the number of live-born babies who later died during the census. This has made it impossible to calculate the fertility rate directly, so a Mathematical method is needed that can indirectly be used to calculate the fertility rate in an area. This paper will show a method of calculating birth or fertility indirectly, where this method can determine the preventable birth rate as an indicator of the success of controlling population through Family Planning (KB) programs, so that through this calculation can be determined the total fertility rate based on effectiveness use of contraceptives.Keywords : family planning (KB), total fertility rate (TFR), crude birth rate (CBR)

scholarly journals Demographic Issues in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Nik Norliati Fitri Md Nor
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Living Arrangement ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Asian Country ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Trend ◽  
Care Health

This article will discussed about demographic issues in Malaysia and focused about fertility trend, increasing the number of ageing (60 years and above) and non citizen residents. Since 2016 years the crude birth rate in Malaysia are decreased to 16.6 per 1000 population compared to 18.5 per 1000 population in 2009. Starting on years 2019, fertility trend among women are decreased which is below the replacement level 2.1 child per women (15-49 years reproductive women) especially Chinese and Indian ethnic. In 2014, Chinese ethnic and Indian showed that total fertility rate is 1.4 child per women. In 2015, Malay ethnic showed the total fertility rate is 2.6 per child among women 15- 49 years. This situation showed the issued of age population increasingly significantly. The percentage of older person in Malaysia in 2010 among Chinese, Indian, Malay and Bumiputera ethnic are representively 12.2 percent, 7.9 percent, 7.3 percent and 6.2 percent. It showed that the issues of social support for example the living arrangement of older persons, health care, health status and income are the most important issues and must be addressed. Besides that, Malaysia will be challenging problem migrant worker from Asian country and will cause the problem for example for Malaysian citizen to get the work. Based on Department of Statistics Malaysia in 2016, there are about 3.3 million non-Malaysian citizens in Malaysia which is 80.3 percent in 15-64 years. Hopefully this paper will provide some suggestions to enable the authorities to address these issues more effectively.

scholarly journals Characteristics of the reproductive behaviour of the population in Iran and Russia during the Pandemic period COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (10) ◽  
pp. 1163-1170
Author(s):  
Sergey V. Ryazantsev ◽  
Tamara K. Rostovskaya ◽  
Olga A. Zolotareva
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Sociological Research ◽  
Population Total ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Demographic Policy

Introduction. The urgent issue of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which negatively affected the demographic development of the world’s countries, is the search for new effective mechanisms for the development of demographic potential, which is not possible without appropriate justification monitoring data. The aim of the study is to analyze trends in demographic processes and assess the reproductive behavior of the population of Russia and Iran, as well as develop recommendations in the field of monitoring demographic processes, taking into account the need to study their changes as a result of the spread of COVID-19, which seems significant for determining effective directions and measures of demographic policy in terms of increasing the birth rate in Russia and Iran in the post-pandemic period. Materials and methods. The article is based on the data of the official national statistics of the countries (the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and the Statistical Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran), the international database of the UN Population Division, and sociological information. The general research period is determined by the boundaries from 2000 to 2019. To assess the determination of reproductive behaviour in Russia and Iran, general statistical methods of data analysis were used (for example, indicators of structure, dynamics, implementation of the plan), unique methods of demographic statistics (construction of age and sex pyramids of the population, total fertility rate, and others), methods of sociological research (results are presented as All-Russian sociological research “Demographic well-being of Russians”, conducted with the participation of the authors in 2019-2020 on the territory of 10 constituent entities of Russia). Results. An assessment of fertility trends in Russia and Iran is given, general and specific traits of the character and mechanisms of reproductive behaviour are identified. The substantiation of the improvement of directions and measures of demographic policy is given, taking into account the assessment of its effectiveness. In Russia, it was aimed at increasing the birth rate. In Iran, on the contrary, at decreasing it. In both countries, the policy was very effective - in Russia in 2007-2016. the birth rate for second and subsequent births increased significantly in Iran in the late 1980s-1990s. The decline in fertility was one of the largest in the world. If in Iran the birth rate is now close to the level of simple reproduction of the population (in 2017, the total fertility rate was 2.12), then in Russia, especially after the decline since 2017. In this case, it is far from this level. Conclusion. The article substantiates the need to improve scientific monitoring of the demographic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Recent marriage and childbearing trends in Croatia and Slovenia: A comparative review

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Graovac Matassi ◽  
Ana Talan
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Marriage Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Birth Rates ◽  
First Marriage ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Comparative Review

The paper discusses the marriage and childbearing trends in Croatia and Slovenia from 1985 to 2017. We made a comparative review of several indicators related to marriage and childbearing trends: mean ages of women at first marriage and first childbirth, birth rates, births within and outside marriage, total fertility rate, tempo-adjusted fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, and marriage rate. The analysis is based on the official statistical data provided by the statistical offices of both countries and Human Fertility Database. Many of the indicators, including the birth rate, total fertility rate and age-specific fertility rate, are somewhat more favourable in Slovenia than in Croatia. One of the major differences between the two countries is that in Slovenia the connection between marriage and childbearing is not as nearly significant as in Croatia.

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