scholarly journals Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald L. Boring ◽  
David Gertman ◽  
Jeffrey Joe ◽  
Julie Marble ◽  
William Galyean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Elicitation Procedure

scholarly journals Fuzzy-Based Multivariate Analysis for Input Modeling of Risk Assessment in Wind Farm Projects

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Emad Mohamed ◽  
Parinaz Jafari ◽  
Simaan AbouRizk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Bivariate Distribution ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Illustrative Case ◽  
Input Modeling

Currently, input modeling for Monte Carlo simulation (MSC) is performed either by fitting a probability distribution to historical data or using expert elicitation methods when historical data are limited. These approaches, however, are not suitable for wind farm construction, where—although lacking in historical data—large amounts of subjective knowledge describing the impacts of risk factors are available. Existing approaches are also limited by their inability to consider a risk factor’s impact on cost and schedule as dependent. This paper is proposing a methodology to enhance input modeling in Monte Carlo risk assessment of wind farm projects based on fuzzy set theory and multivariate modeling. In the proposed method, subjective expert knowledge is quantified using fuzzy logic and is used to determine the parameters of a marginal generalized Beta distribution. Then, the correlation between the cost and schedule impact is determined and fit jointly into a bivariate distribution using copulas. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology and to demonstrate its main features, the method was applied to an illustrative case study, and sensitivity analysis and face validation were used to evaluate the method. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach provides a reliable method for enhancing input modeling in Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Assessing the Risk of Microbial Pathogens: Application of a Judgment-Encoding Methodology

1995 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHEILA A. MARTIN ◽  
THOMAS S. WALLSTEN ◽  
NANCY DEAN BEAULIEU
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Microbial Pathogens ◽  
Probability Judgment ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Sampling Methodology ◽  
Computer Aid ◽  
Imported Foods

This paper reports the results of a risk assessment of the adverse health effects from ingesting foods contaminated with certain microbial pathogens. The risk assessment was performed as part of a larger project to develop a risk-based sampling methodology for imported foods inspected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The sampling methodology was put into operation in a computer aid to assist FDA import inspectors in choosing samples to test for violative substances. The computer aid was designed to choose samples so as to maximize the benefit from the sampling plan. The expected benefit of sampling food depends on the probability that a violation exists, the probability that it will be detected by testing, and the risk of illness associated with the violation. While most of this information is available from data collected by the FDA, very little information has been published regarding the relationship between violative substances and human illness, particularly for microbial pathogens. To narrow this information gap, we recruited the assistance of several experts in the fields of microbiology and epidemiology to evaluate the uncertainty surrounding the intake-response relationships for several microbial pathogens. The information collected from the expert elicitation process and documented here cannot substitute for the scientific data needed to accurately estimate dose-response relationships and their variances. Our goal was simply to gather approximations of these relationships to use in the sampling aid. Our results differ from traditional dose-response curves in that we quantified the uncertainty associated with each probability judgment.

scholarly journals A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study

Antibiotics ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Carter ◽  
André Charlett ◽  
Stefano Conti ◽  
Julie Robotham ◽  
Alan Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drug Resistance ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Elicitation Study ◽  
The Uk

Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ioanna ioannou ◽  
Jaime Cadena Gomez ◽  
Willy Aspinall ◽  
David Lange ◽  
Daniel Honfi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Paired Comparison ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Resilience Management ◽  
Hazard Scenario

Abstract Risk assessment in communities or regions typically relies on the determination of hazard scenarios and an evaluation of their impact on local systems and structures. One of the challenges of risk assessment for infrastructure operators is how to identify the most critical scenarios that are likely to represent unacceptable risks to such assets in a given time frame. This study develops a novel approach for prioritizing hazards for the risk assessment of infrastructure. Central to the proposed methodology is an expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison which is based on a formal mathematical technique for quantifying the range and variance in the judgements of a group of stakeholders. The methodology is applied here to identify and rank natural and operational hazard scenarios that could cause serious disruption or have disastrous effects to the infrastructure in the transnational Øresund region over a period of five years. The application highlighted substantial divergences of views among the stakeholders on identifying a single ‘most critical’ natural or operational hazard scenario. Despite these differences, it was possible to flag up certain cases as critical among the natural hazard scenarios, and others among the operational hazards.

Expert elicitation to estimate the feed safety impact of criteria included in the Canadian Food Inspection Agency risk assessment model for feed mills

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Lachapelle ◽  
Manon Racicot ◽  
Geneviève Comeau ◽  
Mohamed Rhouma ◽  
Alexandre Leroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Criteria ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Inspection Agency ◽  
Canadian Food Inspection Agency ◽  
Feed Safety ◽  
Feed Mill

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) is developing an Establishment-based Risk Assessment model for commercial and on-farm mills involved in the manufacture, storage, packaging, labelling or distribution of livestock feed (ERA-Feed Mill model). This model will help inform the allocation of inspection resources based on feed safety risk, including animal health and food safety risk. In a previous study, 34 risk factors, grouped into inherent, mitigation and compliance clusters, along with their assessment criteria were selected. The objective of this current study was to estimate the relative risk (RR) of the 203 assessment criteria based on their impact on feed safety to design an ERA-Feed Mill model algorithm. Furthermore, the intent of this study was to assess the maximum increase or decrease of risk obtained when multiple criteria belonging to a same cluster were identified in a specific feed mill. To do so, a two-round face-to-face expert elicitation was conducted with 28 Canadian feed experts. Results showed no significant association between respondent profiles (years of experience, work sector) and estimated RR. Uniformity of answers between experts improved between rounds. Criteria having the highest increase in risk (median RR≥4) included the presence of materials prohibited to be fed to ruminants in a facility that produces ruminant feed, the presence of multiple livestock species on site and historical non-compliances related to the inspection of the feed mill’s process control and end-product control programs. Risk mitigation criteria having the highest impact on decreasing the risk were the implementation of feed safety certifications, the use of dedicated manufacturing lines (prohibited materials, medications) and having a hazard sampling plan in place for finished feed. The median RR assigned to each criterion and cluster will be used to build an algorithm of the CFIA’s ERA-Feed Mill model.

scholarly journals Adoption of wheat varieties in Bangladesh: expert elicitation approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
MA Rashid ◽  
Tanvir MB Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Seed Production ◽  
Wheat Variety ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Wheat Seed ◽  
Wheat Varieties ◽  
Production Trend ◽  
Elicitation Procedure ◽  
Year 2013

The study was undertaken to find out variety wise adoption rate of wheat in Bangladesh through expert elicitation procedure. Many varieties have been developed by Wheat Research Centre (WRC) but in details of varietal information and adoption information database was not developed which is very important and valuable for the scientist and policy planner. This study through expert elicitation for constructing detail varietal development and adoption database is timely and necessary for the research institute. From all over the Bangladesh 14 experts was invited to share their valuable knowledge and experience on wheat cultivation and adoption in the country. The average age of the experts were 54 yrs and average experience on wheat adoption was 22.65 yrs. The wheat expert informed that 13 major varieties are adopted by the farmers in the recent year(2013-14). Among those varieties, BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) covered highest cultivated area (186026 ha) which shared 41.03% of total wheat cultivated area. BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi), BARI Gom 26 and BARI Gom 23 (Bijoy) ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th position according to the share of cultivated area covered. The seed production information showed that BADC the only wheat seed producer supplied 24912.60 mt of wheat seed in the year 2013-14. The trend of seed production by different wheat variety revealed that over the period 2010-14, the seed production of BARI Gom 24 (Prodip) increased and BARI Gom 21 (Shatabdi) decreased. Increased seed production trend of Prodip variety leaded to highest adopted area of that variety. The main reason behind highest adopted area of Prodip variety was it’s very attractive attributes like high yield, big spike, large grain and lodging tolerance character. Although the Prodip covered highest area but other newly developed variety like BARI Gom 25, BARI Gom 26, BARI Gom 27 and BARI Gom 28 were the most promising varieties which showed increasing adoption path among the expert. These varieties have very good potentiality due to having short duration, tolerance to terminal heat stress, tolerant to salinity and lodging attributes. Satisfying higher demand for wheat consumption and ensuring food security through providing alternative to rice are the major concerning issue of the policy planner and the scientist. Therefore, the study have been undertaken to fulfill this issues.Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 41(3): 491-505, September 2016

scholarly journals Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Relative Risk of Food Safety Criteria Included in the Establishment-Based Risk Assessment Model for Canadian Hatcheries

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 641-665
Author(s):  
Manon Racicot ◽  
Geneviève Comeau ◽  
Alexandre Leroux ◽  
Sylvain Quessy ◽  
Sunny Ng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

scholarly journals Adoption of lentil varieties in Bangladesh: An expert elicitation approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-168
Author(s):  
MA Rashid ◽  
TMB Hossain ◽  
ME Hoque ◽  
MM Rahman ◽  
KS Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Seed Production ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Rust Disease ◽  
Nutrition Security ◽  
Cultivation Technology ◽  
Winter Crops ◽  
Elicitation Procedure ◽  
Information Database

The study was undertaken to find out variety wise adoption rate of lentil in Bangladesh through expert elicitation procedure. Many varieties have been developed by BARI and BINA but in details of varietal information and adoption information database was not developed which is very important and valuable for the scientist and policy planner. From all over the Bangladesh, 12 experts was invited to share their valuable knowledge and experience on lentil cultivation and adoption in the country. The average age of the experts were 51 yrs and average experience on lentil adoption was 21 yrs. The lentil expert informed that 16 major varieties are adopted by the farmers in the recent year (2013-14). Among those varieties, BARI Masur-6 covered highest cultivated area (54,642 ha) which shared 30.04% of total lentil cultivated area. BARI Masur-4, BARI Masur-3 and BARI Masur-5 ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th position according to the share of cultivated area covered. The seed production information showed that BADC the only lentil seed producer supplied 2151 mt of lentil seed in the year 2009-2013.The adoption of variety BARI Masur-6 increased due to its high yield attribute. The another variety BARI Masur-4 and BARI Masur-3 adoption increased due to its high yield, resistant to rust disease attributes which showed increasing adoption path among the expert. Satisfying higher demand for lentil consumption and ensuring food security through providing alternative to winter crops are the major concerning issue of the policy planner and the scientist. To ensure nutrition security in the country, it is very important to encourage and support the farmers to grow more lentil through providing improved cultivation technology to the farmers.Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 43(1): 159-168, March 2018

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