Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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Actors and justifications in media debates on Arctic climate change in Finland and Canada: A network approach

Acta Sociologica ◽

10.1177/0001699319890902 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 000169931989090 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anna Kukkonen ◽

Mark CJ Stoddart ◽

Tuomas Ylä-Anttila

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Network Approach ◽

Policy Actors ◽

Different Types ◽

The Media ◽

Arctic Climate Change ◽

Moral Justifications

In this paper, we examine the centrality of policy actors and moral justifications in media debates on Arctic climate change in Finland and Canada from 2011–2015. We take a network approach on the media debates by analysing relations between the actors and justifications, using discourse network analysis on a dataset of 745 statements from four newspapers. We find that in both countries, governments and universities are the most central actors, whereas business actors are the least central. Justifications that value environmental sustainability and scientific knowledge are most central and used across actor types. However, ecological justifications are sometimes in conflict with market justifications. Government actors emphasize new economic possibilities in the Arctic whereas environmental organizations demand greater protection of the vulnerable Arctic. Ecological justifications and justifications that value international cooperation are more central in the Finnish debate, whereas justifications valuing sustainability and science, as well as those valuing national sovereignty, are more central in the Canadian debate. We conclude that in addition to the centrality of specific policy actors in media debates, the use of different types of moral justifications also reflects political power in the media sphere.

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The EU and its Arctic spirit: Solving Arctic climate change from home?

European View ◽

10.1177/1781685819883143 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 18 (2) ◽

pp. 156-162

Author(s):

Romain Chuffart ◽

Andreas Raspotnik

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Arctic Climate Change ◽

Global Heating ◽

The Eu

Dealing with climate change and developing the Arctic sustainably are often seen as both binary and contradictory sets of challenges. The EU is in a unique position in Arctic affairs: unlike non-Arctic states, it is part of and linked to the region. However, the EU is at risk of missing the opportunity to be a leader in setting standards for a coherent and sustainable approach for the region. The Arctic is often used as a symbol for global climate change and, conversely, climate change is also used as a reason for more Arctic engagement. Yet, the roots of global heating—greenhouse gas emissions—mostly originate from outside the region. This article asks whether the path towards more EU–Arctic involvement should start closer to home.

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Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1867 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hussain Alsarraf

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Arabian Peninsula ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Dynamic Downscaling ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Average Maximum ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period&#8217;s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1&#9702;C to 3 &#9702;C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.&#160;

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Degrading permafrost threatens Arctic nature and built environment

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8408 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jan Hjort ◽

Olli Karjalainen ◽

Juha Aalto ◽

Sebastian Westermann ◽

Vladimir Romanovsky ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

High Resolution ◽

Human Activities ◽

Environmental Data ◽

The Arctic ◽

Permafrost Degradation ◽

Engineering Structures ◽

Near Surface ◽

Population At Risk

Arctic earth surface systems are undergoing unprecedented changes, with permafrost thaw as one of the most striking examples. Permafrost is critical because it controls ecosystem processes, human activities, and landscape dynamics in the north. Degradation (i.e. warming and thawing) of permafrost is related to several hazards, which may pose a serious risk to humans and the environment. Thaw of ice-rich permafrost increases ground instability, landslides, and infrastructure damages. Degrading permafrost may lead to the release of significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and threatens also biodiversity, geodiversity and ecosystem services. Thawing permafrost may even jeopardize human health. Consequently, a deeper understanding of the hazards and risks related to the degradation of permafrost is fundamental for science and society.To address climate change effects on infrastructure and human activities, we (i) mapped circumpolar permafrost hazard areas and (ii) quantified critical engineering structures and population at risk by mid-century. We used observations of ground thermal regime, geospatial environmental data, and statistically-based ensemble methods to model the current and future near-surface permafrost extent at ca. 1 km resolution. Using the forecasts of ground temperatures, a consensus of three geohazard indices, and geospatial data we quantified the amount and proportion of infrastructure elements and population at risk owing to climate change. We show that ca. 70% of current infrastructure and population in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost by 2050. One-third of fundamental infrastructure is located in high hazard regions where the ground is susceptible to thaw-related ground instability. Owing to the observed data-related and methodological limitations we call for improvements in the circumpolar hazard mappings and infrastructure risk assessments.To successfully manage climate change impacts and support sustainable development in the Arctic, it is critical to (i) produce high-resolution geospatial datasets of ground conditions (e.g., content of organic material and ground ice), (ii) develop further high-resolution permafrost modelling, (iii) comprehensively map permafrost degradation-related hazards, and (iv) quantify the amount and economic value of infrastructure and natural resources at risk across the circumpolar permafrost area.

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Late Holocene glacier and climate reconstruction from proglacial records in Vatnsdalur, northern Iceland.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-809 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Konstantin Nebel ◽

Timothy Lane ◽

Kathryn Adamson ◽

Iestyn Barr ◽

Willem van der Bilt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Environmental Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Late Holocene ◽

Sediment Cores ◽

Arctic Region ◽

Arctic Climate ◽

The Arctic ◽

Air Masses ◽

Proglacial Lake

The Arctic region is experiencing surface air temperature increase of twice the global average. To better understand Holocene Arctic climate variability, there is the need for continuous, high-resolution palaeoclimate archives. Sediment cores from proglacial lakes can provide such climate archives, and have the potential to record past environmental change in detail.&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;Vatnsdalur, a valley in northern Iceland, hosts small, climatically sensitive cirque glaciers that became independent from the Iceland Ice Sheet after its retreat following the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 15 ka BP). Importantly, this region is located at the confluence of warm water and air masses from the south and cold polar water and air masses from the north, making it highly sensitive to North Atlantic and Arctic climate change. However, at present the region is highly understudied, lacking any high-resolution climate reconstructions.&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;To address this, we combine geomorphological mapping with the first high-resolution analysis of proglacial lake sediments, to thoroughly examine northern Iceland Late Holocene environmental change.Field mapping supplemented by high-resolution drone data was used to characterise catchment geomorphology, including seven Holocene moraines. A sediment core (SKD-P1-18) from proglacial lake Skei&#240;svatn, Vatnsdalur, was analysed for sedimentological (dry bulk density, loss-on-ignition, grain size), geophysical (magnetic susceptibility) and geochemical (X-ray fluorescence core scan, 2 mm resolution) parameters. &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; We identify three main sedimentary facies from these analyses, indicating variations in glacial input and catchment environmental conditions. Radiocarbon dating of lake macrofossils, supplemented by tephrochronology, provides a chronological framework. Catchment point samples, also analysed using the above analytical techniques, were used for sediment fingerprinting to disentangle non-glacial from glacial end-members.Our results indicate the disappearance and reformation of small, climatically sensitive cirque glaciers in Vatnsdalur during the Holocene. We interpret the data to show an abrupt return to a glaciated catchment. Our results fill a geographical gap of high-resolution proglacial sediment studies in the Arctic-North Atlantic region.

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Influence of Oceanic Boundary Conditions in Simulations of Antarctic Climate and Surface Mass Balance Change during the Coming Century

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2007jcli1690.1 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 21 (5) ◽

pp. 938-962 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Gerhard Krinner ◽

Bérangère Guicherd ◽

Katia Ox ◽

Christophe Genthon ◽

Olivier Magand

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Boundary Conditions ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Surface Conditions ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract This article reports on high-resolution (60 km) atmospheric general circulation model simulations of the Antarctic climate for the periods 1981–2000 and 2081–2100. The analysis focuses on the surface mass balance change, one of the components of the total ice sheet mass balance, and its impact on global eustatic sea level. Contrary to previous simulations, in which the authors directly used sea surface boundary conditions produced by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model for the last decades of both centuries, an anomaly method was applied here in which the present-day simulations use observed sea surface conditions, while the simulations for the end of the twenty-first century use the change in sea surface conditions taken from the coupled simulations superimposed on the present-day observations. It is shown that the use of observed oceanic boundary conditions clearly improves the simulation of the present-day Antarctic climate, compared to model runs using boundary conditions from a coupled climate model. Moreover, although the spatial patterns of the simulated climate change are similar, the two methods yield significantly different estimates of the amplitude of the future climate and surface mass balance change over the Antarctic continent. These differences are of similar magnitude as the intermodel dispersion in the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exercise: selecting a method for generating boundary conditions for a high-resolution model may be just as important as selecting the climate model itself. Using the anomaly method, the simulated mean surface mass balance change over the grounded ice sheet from 1981–2000 to 2081–2100 is 43-mm water equivalent per year, corresponding to a eustatic sea level decrease of 1.5 mm yr−1. A further result of this work is that future continental-mean surface mass balance changes are dominated by the coastal regions, and that high-resolution models, which better resolve coastal processes, tend to predict stronger precipitation changes than models with lower spatial resolution.

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Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Chinese Science Bulletin ◽

10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 57 (10) ◽

pp. 1188-1195 ◽

Cited By ~ 109

Author(s):

XueJie Gao ◽

Ying Shi ◽

DongFeng Zhang ◽

Filippo Giorgi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate

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