scholarly journals Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions

2013 ◽  
Vol 67 (12) ◽  
pp. 2670-2676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Keupers ◽  
Patrick Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
River System ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Waste Water Treatment Plant ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Urban Fluxes ◽  
The Impact

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (−14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Distribution of Three Taxa of Akebia Decne. under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1710
Author(s):  
Xiuting Wang ◽  
Wenwen Zhang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Huiqin Zhu ◽  
Limiao Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Impact

Akebia trifoliata (Thunb.) Koidz., Akebia trifoliata subsp. australis (Diels) T. Shimizu and Akebia quinata (Houtt.) Decne. are the source plants of the traditional Chinese medicines AKEBIAE CAULIS and AKEBIAE FRUCTUS, and have high pharmaceutical value. However, the resource reserve of these plants has dramatically declined due to habitat destruction, which has seriously affected their adequate supply and sustainable utilization. A poor knowledge of the potential distribution of these medicinal materials would seriously constrain the protective exploitation of wild resources and the establishment of new cultivations. In this study, based on the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of these three Akebia taxa under current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s) climate conditions. Our findings showed that the potentially suitable areas of these three Akebia taxa were mainly distributed in China at 101.8–121.9° E and 23.5–34.6° N. Temperature played a more significant role than precipitation in affecting the distribution. The dominant bioclimatic variable that affected the distribution of A. trifoliata and A. quinata in China was the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO06). For A. trifoliata subsp. australis, the mean diurnal range (BIO02) was the dominant variable influencing its distribution. Compared with current conditions, the moderate- and high-suitability areas of these three Akebia taxa were predicted to shrink towards the core areas, while the low-suitability areas were all observed to increase from the 2030s to the 2090s. With the increase in radiative forcing of SSP, the low-impact areas of these three Akebia taxa showed a decreasing trend as a whole. Our results illustrate the impact of climate change on the distribution of Akebia, and would provide references for the sustainable utilization of Akebia’s resources.

scholarly journals Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 493-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hirschi ◽  
S. Stoeckli ◽  
M. Dubrovsky ◽  
C. Spirig ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Codling Moth ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1 % on average today to over 60 % in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g., insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

scholarly journals Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hirschi ◽  
S. Stoeckli ◽  
M. Dubrovsky ◽  
C. Spirig ◽  
P. Calanca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Blight ◽  
Codling Moth ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. van den Hurk ◽  
A.K. Tank ◽  
G. Lenderink ◽  
A. van Ulden ◽  
G.J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture for Local Paddy Water Requirement Irrigation Barito Kuala, South Kalimantan, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Maya Amalia Achyadi ◽  
Koichiro Ohgushi ◽  
Toshihiro Morita
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Paddy Cultivation ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice consumption demand in Indonesia has provided serious problems such as food insecurity. Being the major staple food, rice production is the main priority of medium and long term development planning in Indonesia. Local rice production is strongly affected by climate conditions, especially in South Kalimantan. Nowadays, the world must adjust to climate change. One of significant effects of changing climate on agriculture is related to productivity. Evapotranspiration is the major cause of loss of water needed, for agricultural requirements. The crop requires effective irrigation system with adequate water amount. The main objective of this research is to analyze the water requirements for the irrigation units in Barito Kuala, South Kalimantan concerning local rice cultivation under the climate change scenarios. Supposed rainfall during the 2050s and 2090s are obtained from four downscaled circulated models and one model for projected temperature under CMIP5 with RCPs 8.5 scenario. Penman-Monteith method was used  to calculate the evapotranspiration value. Based on future effective rainfall water requirement is estimated.  The result shows the impact of climate change on the water irrigation requirement of local paddy cultivation are 56% and 25 % higher than current condition in July and September October respectively.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change scenarios on dissolved oxygen in the River Thames, UK

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 138-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. A. Cox ◽  
P. G. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Dissolved Oxygen ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
River System ◽  
Treated Wastewater ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
The Impact

A water quality model is used to assess the impact of possible climate change on dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Thames. The Thames catchment is densely populated and, typically, many pressures are anthropogenic. However, that same population also relies on the river for potable water supply and as a disposal route for treated wastewater. Thus, future water quality will be highly dependent on future activity. Dynamic and stochastic modelling has been used to assess the likely impacts on DO dynamics along the river system and the probability distributions associated with future variability. The modelling predictions indicate that warmer river temperatures and drought act to reduce dissolved oxygen concentrations in lowland river systems.

scholarly journals Potential of Green Leafhopper Attack (Empoasca sp.) in Tea Plantation Based on Climate Change Scenarios

Agromet ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-95
Author(s):  
Dwi Adelianingsih ◽  
Rini Hidayati ◽  
Yon Sugiarto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Tea Plantation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Green Leafhopper ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Pest growth is closely related to the climate conditions. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate variability and climate change on the potential attack of green leafhopper (Empoasca sp.) on tea plantations at PTPN VIII Gunung Mas. The analysis was carried out to calculate the value of Ecoclimatic Index (EI) based on the functions of the compare years and the compare location in CLIMEX model. Pest suitability in the future was projected using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, which were derived from MIROC 5 and CCSM 4 climate model outputs. The result indicated that Gunung Mas Tea Plantation was suitable for Empoasca sp. growth. The EI value (58) in the baseline year (2012-2017) confirmed the suitability. Climate variability influences the suitability for Empoasca sp. growth. During El-Niño, the EI value decrease substantially (~26%). On the other hand, the EI value is projected to slightly increase in the future for both climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

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