New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. van den Hurk ◽  
A.K. Tank ◽  
G. Lenderink ◽  
A. van Ulden ◽  
G.J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

scholarly journals Impact of climate changes on water resources of Kuialnyk Liman catchment in scenario climate conditions

2017 ◽  
pp. 189-195
Author(s):  
N.S. Loboda ◽  
Y.V. Bozhok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Surrounding Areas

The actuality of research is conditioned by necessity of water regime determination under climate change for substantiate management its water resources in future. The purpose of investigation is evaluation of changes in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman catchment under climate change. The main method of research is model "climate- runoff ", developed at the Odessa State Environmental University. Database of global climate change scenarios A1B (realized in regional climate model REMO) and A2 (developed under the regional climate model RCA) was used. The analysis of fluctuation regularity of climatic factors of the flow formation on the Kuyalnyk  Liman catchment and surrounding areas according to selected scenarios using  difference-integral curves are done. Changes in precipitation and the maximum possible evaporation for the 30-year intervals up to the year 2100 (scenario A1D) or up to the year 2050 (scenario A2) are analyzed. The main tendencies in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman using the model "climate- runoff" in the future are established. It is shown that according to the scenario A1B by the middle of XXI century possible reduction of water resources in the Kuyalnyk Liman catchment is 40%. According to the scenario A2 water resources in northern part of the basin can grow on average by 20-30%, and in the southern part runoff can be reduced on average by 10%.

scholarly journals An Integrated Extreme Rainfall Modeling Tool (SDExtreme) for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myeong-Ho Yeo ◽  
Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen ◽  
Yong Sang Kim ◽  
Theodore A. Kpodonu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Modeling Software ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

Abstract The estimation of the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relations is often necessary for the planning and design of various hydraulic structures and design storms. It has been an increasingly greater challenge due to climate change condition. This paper therefore proposes an integrated extreme rainfall modeling software package (SDExtreme) for constructing the IDF relations at a local site in the context of climate change. The proposed tool is based on a temporal downscaling method to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation using the scale-invariance General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In addition, SDExtreme provides a modified bootstrap technique to determine confidence intervals (CIs) of the estimated IDF curves for the current and the future climate conditions. The feasibility and accuracy of SDExtreme were assessed using rainfall data available from the selected rain gauge stations in Quebec and Ontario provinces (Canada) and climate simulations under three different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4).

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre de Arruda LYRA ◽  
Sin Chan CHOU ◽  
Gilvan de Oliveira SAMPAIO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Alam ◽  
Md. Mostafa Ali ◽  
Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman ◽  
Zahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Brahmaputra River ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Potential of Green Leafhopper Attack (Empoasca sp.) in Tea Plantation Based on Climate Change Scenarios

Agromet ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-95
Author(s):  
Dwi Adelianingsih ◽  
Rini Hidayati ◽  
Yon Sugiarto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Tea Plantation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Green Leafhopper ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Pest growth is closely related to the climate conditions. This study aimed to analyze the impact of climate variability and climate change on the potential attack of green leafhopper (Empoasca sp.) on tea plantations at PTPN VIII Gunung Mas. The analysis was carried out to calculate the value of Ecoclimatic Index (EI) based on the functions of the compare years and the compare location in CLIMEX model. Pest suitability in the future was projected using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, which were derived from MIROC 5 and CCSM 4 climate model outputs. The result indicated that Gunung Mas Tea Plantation was suitable for Empoasca sp. growth. The EI value (58) in the baseline year (2012-2017) confirmed the suitability. Climate variability influences the suitability for Empoasca sp. growth. During El-Niño, the EI value decrease substantially (~26%). On the other hand, the EI value is projected to slightly increase in the future for both climate scenarios.

scholarly journals A Ricardian valuation of the impact of climate change on Nigerian cocoa production

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
William M. Fonta ◽  
Abbi M. Kedir ◽  
Aymar Y. Bossa ◽  
Karen M. Greenough ◽  
Bamba M. Sylla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the relative importance of climate normals (average long-term temperature and precipitation) in explaining net farm revenue per hectare (NRh) for supplementary irrigated and rainfed cocoa farms in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach NRh was estimated for 280 cocoa farmers sampled across seven Nigerian states. It was regressed on climate, household socio-economic characteristics and other control variables by using a Ricardian analytical framework. Marginal calculations were used to isolate the effects of climate change (CC) on cocoa farm revenues under supplementary irrigated and rainfed conditions. Future impacts of CC were simulated using Six CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble between 2036-2065 and 2071-2100. Findings Results indicate high sensitivity of NRh to Nigerian climate normals depending on whether farms use supplementary irrigation. Average annual temperature increases and precipitation decreases are associated with NRh losses for rainfed farms and gains for supplementary irrigated cocoa farms. Projections of future CC impacts suggest a wide range of NRh outcomes on supplementary irrigated and rainfed farm revenues, demonstrating the importance of irrigation as an effective adaptation strategy in Nigeria. Originality/value This paper uses novel data sets for simulating future CC impacts on land values in Nigeria. CORDEX data constitute the most comprehensive RCMs projections available for Africa.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Future Thermal Assessment for the Phenological Development of Potato [Solanum tuberosum (L.)] in Cuba

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alexis Augusto Hernández-Mansilla ◽  
Francisco Estrada-Porrúa ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Graciela Lucía Binimelis de Raga
Keyword(s):  
Solanum Tuberosum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solanum Tuberosum L ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Thermal Index ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Biological Development

Current changes in climate conditions due to global warming affect the phenological behavior of economically important cultivable plant species, with consequences for the food security of many countries, particularly in small vulnerable islands. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal viability of Solanum tuberosum (L.) through the behavior of the Thermal Index of Biological Development (ITDB) of two cultivation areas in Cuba under different climate change scenarios. For the analysis, we elaborated bioclimatic scenarios by calculating the ITDB through a grounded and parameterized stochastic function based on the thermal values established for the phenological development of the species. We used the mean temperature values from the period 1980 to 2010 (historical reference period) of the Meteorological Stations: 78320 “Güira de Melena” and 78346 “Venezuela”, located at the western and central of Cuba respectively. We also used modeled data from RCP 2.6 scenarios; 4.5 and 8.5 from the PRECIS-CARIBE Regional Climate Model, which used global outputs from the ECHAM5 MCG for the period 2010 to 2100. As result, the scenarios showed that the annual average ITDB ranges from 0.7 to 0.8, which indicates that until 2010 there were temporary spaces with favorable thermal conditions for the species, but not for the period from 2010 to 2100 in RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In these scenarios, there was a progressive decrease in the indicator that warned of a marked loss of Viability of S. tuberosum, reduction of the time-space to cultivate this species (particularly the month of April is the most inappropriate for the ripening of the tuber). These results showed that Cuba requires the establishment of an adaptation program with adjustments in the sowing and production calendar, the use of short-cycle varieties of less than 120 days, the management of genotypes adaptable to high temperatures, and the application of “Agriculture Climate Smart”, to reduce risks in food safety.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document