Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 1669-1677 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Fontanazza ◽  
G. Freni ◽  
V. Notaro
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Bayesian Inference Analysis ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
High Uncertainty

Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curves. A Bayesian inference analysis was proposed along with a probabilistic approach for the parameters estimating. The analysis demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is very effective considering that the available databases are usually short.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Urban Flood on Traffic Disruption using Rainfall–Depth–Vehicle Speed Relationship

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Su Choo ◽  
Dong-Ho Kang ◽  
Byung-Sik Kim
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Driving Speed

The transportation network enables movement of people and goods and is the basis of economic activity. Recently, short-term locally heavy rains occur frequently in urban areas, causing serious obstacles to road flooding and increasing economic and social effects. Therefore, in advanced weather countries, many studies have been conducted on realistic and reliable impact forecasting by analyzing socioeconomic impacts, not just information transmission as weather forecasts. In this paper, we use the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) and Flood Inundation model (FLO-2D model) to calculate the flooding level in urban areas caused by rainfall and use the flooding rate. In addition, the rainfall–flood depth curve and the Flood–Vehicle Speed curve were presented during the analysis, and the traffic disruption map was prepared using this. The results of this study were compared with previous studies and verified by rainfall events in 2011. As a result of the verification, the result was similar to the actual flooding, and when the same rainfall occurred within the range of the target area, it was confirmed that there were sections that could not be passed and sections that could be passed smoothly. Therefore, the results suggested in this study will be helpful for the driver’s route selection by using the urban flood damage analysis and vehicle driving speed analysis.

scholarly journals A Novel Framework for Urban Flood Damage Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Yavari ◽  
Seyyed Ali Akbar Salehi Neyshabouri ◽  
Jafar Yazdi ◽  
amir molajou
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Novel Method

Abstract The study of non-stationary effects of hydrological time series and land-use changes in urban areas is essential to predict future floods and their probable damage. In the current study, a novel method was proposed for analyzing their simultaneous impact. For this purpose, rainfall frequency and land-use changes analyses were conducted for two different long-term periods, and the results were compared. Then, hydrologic modeling of the catchment was carried out using the HEC-HMS model, and obtained hydrographs were fed to the HEC-RAS2D model for estimating flood inundation areas. Using the economic information of assets and their damage functions, flood damages related to these two periods were evaluated through the HEC-FIA model. The results indicated that in the low return periods (e.g., 2-year flood), the damage in the second period was increased with respect to the first one but increased for the return periods of 5 to 100 years. Furthermore, surface runoff showed a 4.65% increase due to land-use change and a 12% increase due to rainfall non-stationarity. Moreover, flood damage showed a 136% increase on average, and among the two studied factors, the non-stationarity of rainfalls is considerably more effective on flood intensification.

Flood risk modelling based on tangible and intangible urban flood damage quantification

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. E. ten Veldhuis ◽  
F. H. L. R. Clemens
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Human Health Risk ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Call Centre ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Traffic Disturbance ◽  
Risk Curves

The usual way to quantify flood damage is by application stage-damage functions. Urban flood incidents in flat areas mostly result in intangible damages like traffic disturbance and inconvenience for pedestrians caused by pools at building entrances, on sidewalks and parking spaces. Stage-damage functions are not well suited to quantify damage for these floods. This paper presents an alternative method to quantify flood damage that uses data from a municipal call centre. The data cover a period of 10 years and contain detailed information on consequences of urban flood incidents. Call data are linked to individual flood incidents and then assigned to specific damage classes. The results are used to draw risk curves for a range of flood incidents of increasing damage severity. Risk curves for aggregated groups of damage classes show that total flood risk related to traffic disturbance is larger than risk of damage to private properties, which in turn is larger than flood risk related to human health. Risk curves for detailed damage classes show how distinctions can be made between flood risks related to many types of occupational use in urban areas. This information can be used to support prioritisation of actions for flood risk reduction. Since call data directly convey how citizens are affected by urban flood incidents, they provide valuable information that complements flood risk analysis based on hydraulic models.

Tradeoffs in water extremes: combining hydraulic and economic modeling to assess the economic and financial viability of de Lastras de Cuéllar Dam, Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor González López ◽  
C. Dionisio Pérez-Blanco ◽  
Laura Gil-García
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Regulated River ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
Floods And Droughts

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>Growing population and water demand (e.g for irrigation, water supply) and the vagaries of climate, now aggravated due to climate change, intensify societal exposure to water extremes and the economic and environmental impact of floods and droughts in Mediterranean basins. The Douro River Basin Authority (DRBA) in central Spain is assessing whether to build a dam in the Cega Catchment (Spain) with the twofold objective of substituting irrigation withdrawals from overallocated aquifers with relatively more abundant surface water, and of mitigating flood damage in the middle and lower stretches of the Cega River -the only non-regulated river in the DRB. This paper assesses and compares the costs of two alternative adaptation strategies to growing scarcity and more frequent and intense water extremes, namely dam construction v. the statu quo strategy where no dam is built. To this end, a Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programing (PMAUP) that mimics farmer´s behavior and responses is used to assess the impacts on agricultural employment and gross value added of selected strategies in the irrigation sector; while the hydrologic model River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is used to simulate the economic impact of flood events considering standard return periods, based on the global flood depth-damage functions developed by Huizinga et al. (2017). Both models are used to run 900 simulations reproducing alternative socioeconomic and climatic/hydrologic scenarios. The result is a database representing multiple plausible futures, which is used to identify vulnerabilities of proposed adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs between responses -notably those referring to the design and operation rules of the dam, and the potential impact of floods and droughts. This methodology and the resultant database are combined with experts’ knowledge through robust decision-making tools to identify the preferred (i.e. robust) adaptation policy.</p>

scholarly journals Development of Resilience Index Based on Flooding Damage in Urban Areas

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eui Lee ◽  
Joong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Damage Analysis ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
The Status ◽  
Resilience Index ◽  
Flooding Depth

Flooding volume in urban areas is not linearly proportional to flooding damage because, in some areas, no flooding damage occurs until the flooding depth reaches a certain point, whereas flooding damage occurs in other areas whenever flooding occurs. Flooding damage is different from flooding volume because each subarea has different components. A resilience index for urban drainage systems was developed based on flooding damage. In this study, the resilience index based on flooding damage in urban areas was applied to the Sintaein basin in Jeongup, Korea. The target watershed was divided into five subareas according to the status of land use in each subarea. The damage functions between flooding volume and flooding damage were calculated by multi-dimensional flood damage analysis. The extent of flooding damage per minute was determined from the results of flooding volume per minute using damage functions. The values of the resilience index based on flooding damages were distributed from 0.797292 to 0.933741. The resilience index based on flooding damage suggested in this study can reflect changes in urban areas and can be used for the evaluation of flood control plans such as the installation, replacement, and rehabilitation of drainage facilities.

scholarly journals Flood Depth‒Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz ◽  
Edwar Forero-Ortiz ◽  
María Guerrero-Hidalga ◽  
Salvador Castán ◽  
Manuel Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Estimation ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Damage Reduction ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Project Site ◽  
The Eu

Depth‒damage curves, also known as vulnerability curves, are an essential element of many flood damage models. A relevant characteristic of these curves is their applicability limitations in space and time. The reader will find firstly in this paper a review of different damage models and depth‒damage curve developments in the world, particularly in Spain. In the framework of the EU-funded RESCCUE project, site-specific depth‒damage curves for 14 types of property uses have been developed for Barcelona. An expert flood surveyor’s opinion was essential, as the occasional lack of data was made up for by his expertise. In addition, given the lack of national standardization regarding the applicability of depth‒damage curves for flood damage assessments in Spanish urban areas, regional adjustment indices have been derived for transferring the Barcelona curves to other municipalities. Temporal adjustment indices have been performed in order to modify the depth‒damage curves for the damage estimation of future flood events, too. This study attempts to provide nationwide applicability in flood damage reduction studies.

scholarly journals The Effect of Damage Functions on Urban Flood Damage Appraisal

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 1251-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Notaro ◽  
M. De Marchis ◽  
C.M. Fontanazza ◽  
G. La Loggia ◽  
V. Puleo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood

scholarly journals Risk Type Analysis of Building on Urban Flood Damage

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 2505
Author(s):  
Kiyong Park ◽  
Sang-Hyun Choi ◽  
Insang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Vulnerability Analysis ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
City Development ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Risk Class ◽  
Exposure Analysis ◽  
Building Type

Climate change caused by global warming has resulted in an increase in average temperature and changes in precipitation pattern and intensity. Consequently, this has led to an increase in localized heavy rain which intensifies the uncertainty of the development of urban areas. To minimize flood damage in an urban area, this study aims to analyze the flood risk effect on buildings by ranking the risk of flood damage for each building type and sorting the long-term land use plan and the building type that requires particular consideration. To evaluate the flood risk of each building type, vulnerability analysis and exposure analysis were conducted in five regions of the Ulsan City. The vulnerability analysis includes determination of each building type by using the building elements which are sensitive to flood damage. In terms of the exposure analysis, environmental factors were applied to analyze the flood depth. The mapping based on the results from two analyses provided the basis for classifying the flood risk into five classes (green, yellowish green, yellow, orange, red). The results were provided in the urban spatial form for each building type. This analysis shows that the district near the Taehwa river is the area with the highest risk class buildings (red and orange class buildings). Notably, this area plays a pivotal functional role in administrating the Ulsan City and has a high density of buildings. This phenomenon is explained by city development which is centered around the lowland; however, given the high value of property, the potential risk is proven to be high.

scholarly journals Using Multi-Factor Analysis to Predict Urban Flood Depth Based on Naive Bayes

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 432
Author(s):  
Huiliang Wang ◽  
Hongfa Wang ◽  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yihong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Naive Bayes ◽  
Naïve Bayes ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Urban Flooding ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Depth Prediction ◽  
Bayes Theory ◽  
Flooded Areas

With global warming, the number of extreme weather events will increase. This scenario, combined with accelerating urbanization, increases the likelihood of urban flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the characteristics of flooded areas caused by rainstorms, especially the flood depth. We applied the Naive Bayes theory to construct a model (NB model) to predict urban flood depth here in Zhengzhou. The model used 11 factors that affect the extent of flooding—rainfall, duration of rainfall, peak rainfall, the proportion of roads, woodlands, grasslands, water bodies and building, permeability, catchment area, and slope. The forecast depth of flooding from the NB model under different rainfall conditions was used to draw an urban inundation map by ArcGIS software. The results show that the probability and degree of urban flooding in Zhengzhou increases significantly after a return period of once every two years, and the flooded areas mainly occurred in older urban areas. The average root mean square error of prediction results was 0.062, which verifies the applicability and validity of our model in the depth prediction of urban floods. Our findings suggest the NB model as a feasible approach to predict urban flood depth.

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