scholarly journals Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 145-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Ashrafi ◽  
H. Gholami ◽  
M. R. Najafi
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Abstract Hydrological drought plays an important role in planning and managing water resources systems to meet increasing water demands due to population growth. In this study, the effects of climate change on the hydrological drought characteristics of the Gharasu basin, as one of the major sub-basins of the Karkheh river basin, are investigated. This river basin has experienced severe droughts, and floods, in recent years. The uncertainties in projected drought conditions are characterized based on a suite of 34 general circulation models (GCMs). Based on hydrological simulations over the historical period, 12 GCMs are selected to estimate projected runoff values and the corresponding streamflow drought index (SDI) in the future period. The ‘run theory’ is applied to evaluate the drought characteristics under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that uncertainties of drought projection under RCP8.5 are higher than under RCP4.5, where among different drought characteristics, the maximum uncertainty is detected for drought severity and maximum drought duration. Moreover, the uncertainty of drought projection in wet periods is greater than that in dry periods.

scholarly journals Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 487-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wanders ◽  
H. A. J. Van Lanen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The World ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yao ◽  
Wen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Huai River Basin

: Hydrological droughts were characterized using the run-length theory and the AIC (Akaike information criterion) techniques were accepted to evaluate the modeling performance of nine probability functions. In addition, the copula functions were used to describe joint probability behaviors of drought duration and drought severity for the major tributaries of the Huai River Basin (HRB) which is located in the transitional zone between humid and semi-humid climates. The results indicated that: (1) the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper HRB is higher than that in the central HRB, while the duration of the hydrological drought is in reverse spatial pattern. The drought frequency across the Shiguan River along the south bank of the HRB is higher than the other two tributaries; (2) generalized Pareto distribution is the appropriate distribution function with the best performance in modelling the drought duration over the HRB; while the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution can effectively describe the probabilistic properties of the drought severity. Joe copula and Tawn copula functions are the best choices and were used in this study. Given return periods of droughts of <30 years, the droughts in the upper HRB are the longest, and the shortest are in the central HRB; (3) the frequency of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is higher than tributaries of the HRB. However, concurrence probability of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is lower than the tributaries of the HRB. The drought resistance capacity of HRB has been significantly improved, effectively reducing the impact of hydrological drought on crops after 2010.

scholarly journals Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Chaoxing Sun ◽  
Xiong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jinghe River Basin ◽  
Jinghe River

The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh Under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamruzzaman ◽  
Jang ◽  
Cho ◽  
Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Northwestern Region

: The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and end of this century (2070–2099) relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase in rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three General Circulation Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 7701-7738 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wanders ◽  
H. A. J. van Lanen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The World ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Abstract. Hydrological droughts characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a results of climate change. Magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is largely unknown. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three General Circulation Models for the A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data re-analysis dataset(reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and deficit volume. Results for the control period (1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate model's results after post-processing produce realistic outcome for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D-)climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry B-climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the analysis for the control period showed that projections are in these regions most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which urges water resources managers to timely anticipate on the increased risk on more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽  
Min-Won Jang ◽  
Jaepil Cho ◽  
Syewoon Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Northwestern Region

The impacts of climate change on precipitation and drought characteristics over Bangladesh were examined by using the daily precipitation outputs from 29 bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. A precipitation-based drought estimator, namely, the Effective Drought Index (EDI), was applied to quantify the characteristics of drought events in terms of the severity and duration. The changes in drought characteristics were assessed for the beginning (2010&ndash;2039), middle (2040&ndash;2069), and end of this century (2070&ndash;2099) relative to the 1976&ndash;2005 baseline. The GCMs were limited in regard to forecasting the occurrence of future extreme droughts. Overall, the findings showed that the annual precipitation will increase in the 21st century over Bangladesh; the increasing rate was comparatively higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. The highest increase of rainfall is expected to happen over the drought-prone northern region. The general trends of drought frequency, duration, and intensity are likely to decrease in the 21st century over Bangladesh under both RCP scenarios, except for the maximum drought intensity during the beginning of the century, which is projected to increase over the country. The extreme and medium-term drought events did not show any significant changes in the future under both scenarios except for the medium-term droughts, which decreased by 55% compared to the base period during the 2070s under RCP8.5. However, extreme drought days will likely increase in most of the cropping seasons for the different future periods under both scenarios. The spatial distribution of changes in drought characteristics indicates that the drought-vulnerable areas are expected to shift from the northwestern region to the central and the southern region in the future under both scenarios due to the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of MC&MCMC uncertainty analysis frameworks on SWAT model by focusing on future runoff prediction in a mountainous watershed via CMIP5 models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1811-1828
Author(s):  
Armin Ahmadi ◽  
Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar ◽  
Vahid Nourani ◽  
Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi ◽  
A. A. Besalatpour
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The river situation in a dry or semi-dry area is extremely affected by climate change and precipitation patterns. In this study, the impact of climate alteration on runoff in Kashafrood River Basin (KRB) in Iran was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in historical and three future period times. The runoff was studied by MIROC-ESM and GFDL-ESM2G models as the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM-ZS) was used to calibrate the hydrological model parameters in different sub-basins. Using DREAM-ZS algorithm, realistic values were obtained for the parameters related to runoff simulation in the SWAT model. In this area, results show that runoff in GFDL-ESM2G in both RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) in comparing future periods with the historical period is increased about 232–383% and in MIROC-ESM tends to increase around 87–292%. Furthermore, GFDL-ESM2G compared to MIROC-ESM in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) in near, intermediate, and far future periods shows that the value of runoff increases 59.6% (23.0%), 100.2% (35.1%), and 42.5% (65.3%), respectively.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Song-Liao River Basin in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojing Shen ◽  
Xu Wu ◽  
Xinmin Xie ◽  
Zhenzhen Ma ◽  
Meijian Yang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Drought Occurrence

The monthly accumulated precipitation and monthly average temperature of 117 meteorological stations in Song-Liao River Basin (SLRB) were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) to analyze the drought characteristics, including long-term trends, drought affected area, climate abrupt change, intensive drought occurrence regions, and drought durations during 1964–2013 with the support of GIS. The Area Drought Severity (ADS), a comprehensive index, is proposed to assess both the variations of drought degree and the extent of the drought affected area. The results revealed that (1) the drought happening probability and degree are rising and the affected areas of all degrees of drought have an increasing trend during the last 50 years; (2) there is a climate abrupt change which occurred in around 1994, and the area with declining SPEI is larger than that with declining SPI, which could be due to the rising temperature after the climate abrupt change; (3) all degrees of drought occurrence probability increased, and the intensive drought occurrence regions altered from the northern SLRB to the southwestern SLRB after the climate abrupt change; (4) the drought duration increased from 1994, and the increased drought durations occurred in most parts of SLRB.

scholarly journals Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1205-1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Kwok Wong ◽  
Stein Beldring ◽  
Torill Engen-Skaugen ◽  
Ingjerd Haddeland ◽  
Hege Hisdal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate change on droughts in Norway. A spatially distributed (1 × 1 km2) version of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) precipitation-runoff model was used to provide hydrological data for the analyses. Downscaled daily temperature and precipitation derived from two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models with two future emission scenarios were applied as input to the HBV model. The differences in hydroclimatological drought characteristics in the summer season between the periods 1961–90 and 2071–2100 were studied. The threshold level method was adopted to select drought events for both present and future climates. Changes in both the duration and spatial extent of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater droughts were identified. Despite small changes in future meteorological drought characteristics, substantial increases in hydrological drought duration and drought affected areas are expected, especially in the southern and northernmost parts of the country. Reduced summer precipitation is a major factor that affects changes in drought characteristics in the south while temperature increases play a more dominant role for the rest of the country.

scholarly journals Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2066
Author(s):  
Jin Hyuck Kim ◽  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Eun-Sung Chung ◽  
Sang Ug Kim ◽  
Minwoo Son ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.

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