scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Song-Liao River Basin in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojing Shen ◽  
Xu Wu ◽  
Xinmin Xie ◽  
Zhenzhen Ma ◽  
Meijian Yang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Drought Occurrence

The monthly accumulated precipitation and monthly average temperature of 117 meteorological stations in Song-Liao River Basin (SLRB) were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) to analyze the drought characteristics, including long-term trends, drought affected area, climate abrupt change, intensive drought occurrence regions, and drought durations during 1964–2013 with the support of GIS. The Area Drought Severity (ADS), a comprehensive index, is proposed to assess both the variations of drought degree and the extent of the drought affected area. The results revealed that (1) the drought happening probability and degree are rising and the affected areas of all degrees of drought have an increasing trend during the last 50 years; (2) there is a climate abrupt change which occurred in around 1994, and the area with declining SPEI is larger than that with declining SPI, which could be due to the rising temperature after the climate abrupt change; (3) all degrees of drought occurrence probability increased, and the intensive drought occurrence regions altered from the northern SLRB to the southwestern SLRB after the climate abrupt change; (4) the drought duration increased from 1994, and the increased drought durations occurred in most parts of SLRB.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 145-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Ashrafi ◽  
H. Gholami ◽  
M. R. Najafi
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Abstract Hydrological drought plays an important role in planning and managing water resources systems to meet increasing water demands due to population growth. In this study, the effects of climate change on the hydrological drought characteristics of the Gharasu basin, as one of the major sub-basins of the Karkheh river basin, are investigated. This river basin has experienced severe droughts, and floods, in recent years. The uncertainties in projected drought conditions are characterized based on a suite of 34 general circulation models (GCMs). Based on hydrological simulations over the historical period, 12 GCMs are selected to estimate projected runoff values and the corresponding streamflow drought index (SDI) in the future period. The ‘run theory’ is applied to evaluate the drought characteristics under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that uncertainties of drought projection under RCP8.5 are higher than under RCP4.5, where among different drought characteristics, the maximum uncertainty is detected for drought severity and maximum drought duration. Moreover, the uncertainty of drought projection in wet periods is greater than that in dry periods.

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yao ◽  
Wen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Huai River Basin

: Hydrological droughts were characterized using the run-length theory and the AIC (Akaike information criterion) techniques were accepted to evaluate the modeling performance of nine probability functions. In addition, the copula functions were used to describe joint probability behaviors of drought duration and drought severity for the major tributaries of the Huai River Basin (HRB) which is located in the transitional zone between humid and semi-humid climates. The results indicated that: (1) the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper HRB is higher than that in the central HRB, while the duration of the hydrological drought is in reverse spatial pattern. The drought frequency across the Shiguan River along the south bank of the HRB is higher than the other two tributaries; (2) generalized Pareto distribution is the appropriate distribution function with the best performance in modelling the drought duration over the HRB; while the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution can effectively describe the probabilistic properties of the drought severity. Joe copula and Tawn copula functions are the best choices and were used in this study. Given return periods of droughts of <30 years, the droughts in the upper HRB are the longest, and the shortest are in the central HRB; (3) the frequency of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is higher than tributaries of the HRB. However, concurrence probability of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is lower than the tributaries of the HRB. The drought resistance capacity of HRB has been significantly improved, effectively reducing the impact of hydrological drought on crops after 2010.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

Framework for Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Distribution and Clustering of Drought Characteristics in Hunan Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11524
Author(s):  
Chunxiao Huang ◽  
Shunshi Hu ◽  
Muhammad Hasan Ali Baig ◽  
Ying Huang
Keyword(s):  
Large Population ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Clustering Method ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics

Drought is a widespread phenomenon in the context of global climate change. Owing to the geographical location of Hunan Province in the middle reaches of Yangtze River and the abundance of forests area in this region with a large population, there is a need to focus on the impacts of drought for devising policies. The spatiotemporal distribution scheme of a given area must be determined to plan water management and protect ecosystems effectively. This study proposes a framework for exploring the spatiotemporal distribution model of drought using comprehensive surveys of historical meteorological stations, which consists of two parts, namely the characteristics of drought extraction in the spatiotemporal distribution and drought models discovered by the clustering method. Firstly, we utilized the run theory to extract drought characteristics, such as drought duration, drought severity, and drought intensity. Secondly, the K-means clustering method was adopted to explore the distribution patterns on the basis of the drought characteristics. Lastly, the method was applied to Hunan Province. Results show that historical drought conditions can be monitored with their characteristics of spatiotemporal variability. Three drought distribution clusters exist in this region. Cluster 1 in western Hunan tends to be a long-term, low-intensity drought, cluster 2 in the southern part tends to be a short-term, high-intensity drought, and cluster 3 in the central part is prone to severe drought. The proposed framework is flexible as it allows parameters to be adjusted and extraction methods to achieve reasonable results for a given area.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Droughts over Different Climate Regions using Hybrid Clustering Method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiyoumars Roushangar ◽  
Roghayeh Ghasempour ◽  
Vahid Nourani
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The North ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Drought spatiotemporal variations assessment is an efficient method for implementing drought mitigation strategies and reducing its negative impacts. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of short to long-term droughts was assessed for an area with different climates. 31 stations located in Iran were considered and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series with timescales of 3, 6, and 12 months were calculated during the 1951-2016 period. A hybrid methodology namely Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) was applied to obtain the SPIs time-frequency properties and multiscale zoning was done via K-means clustering approach. The energy amounts of decomposed subseries via the MODWT were used as inputs for K-means approach. Also, the statistics in drought features (i.e. drought duration, severity, and peak) were assessed and the results showed that shorter term droughts (i.e. SPI-3 and -6) were more frequent and severe in the north parts where the lowest values of drought duration were obtained. It was observed that the regions with more droughts frequency had the highest energy values. For shorter term droughts a direct relationship was obtained between the energy values and mean SPI, drought severity, and drought peak, whereas an inverse relationship was obtained for longer term drought. It was found that with increasing the degree of SPI, the similarity of the stations of each cluster increased too and the homogeneity of stations for the SPI-12 was slightly higher than the SPI-3 and -6.

scholarly journals Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5477-5492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Linying Wang ◽  
Tian Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Groundwater Exploitation ◽  
Human Interventions

Abstract. Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

scholarly journals Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 487-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wanders ◽  
H. A. J. Van Lanen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Control Period ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The World ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Abstract. Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

scholarly journals SPEI-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meijian Yang ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Yingdong Yu ◽  
Zhiyong Yang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Break Point ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
The North ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Under the background of climate change, the monthly accumulated precipitation and monthly averaged temperature of 47 meteorological stations in and around Haihe River Basin (HRB) were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) to obtain the temporal variability and spatial distribution of different drought levels during the last 50 years with the support of GIS. The results show that(1)from 1961 to 2010 the drought frequency and degree in annual and seasonal scale are rising and the affecting areas of all degrees of drought have a temporal variability of increasing trend. The ratios that the influencing area of drought, light drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought account for the whole HRB area are increasing with gradients of 0.64%/a, 0.18%/a, 0.31%/a, 0.14%/a, and 0.01%/a, respectively, and(2)there is a climate break point which occurred in 1990; after the comparison of the drought happening probability between 1961 and 1990 and between 1991 and 2010, all degrees of drought occurrence probability have a remarkable rising trend, and the drought concentrating regions moved from the north HRB to the central HRB.

scholarly journals Groundwater Drought in the Nitra River Basin - Identification and Classification

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Fendeková ◽  
Marián Fendek
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Groundwater Drought ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Groundwater Drought in the Nitra River Basin - Identification and Classification Drought as a natural phenomenon becomes more often the subject of the research. It is because of the increasing frequency of extreme climatic events also in mild climate conditions. Groundwater drought indices could be derived for different groundwater parameters, among them for base flow, groundwater head stage, spring yield, or groundwater recharge. Base flow drought assessment methods were proposed in the paper. Base flow values were separated from the discharge hydrograms using the new HydroOffice 2010 program package, lately developed by Gregor. The base flow drought severity index was applied, calculated as the value of the base flow drought deficit volume divided by the drought duration. After that, the standardized base flow drought severity index was proposed as the ratio of the base flow drought index and the average long-term annual base flow. Proposed methods were applied in the Nitra River basin. Base flow drought occurrence was characterized also from the seasonality point of view.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal evaluation of drought characteristics in the Dhasan basin

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-598
Author(s):  
SASWAT KUMAR KAR ◽  
R. M. SINGH ◽  
T. THOMAS
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Drought Conditions

ABSTRACT. The meteorological drought characteristics including onset, departure, duration, severity as well as intensity have been evaluated mainly for monsoon season at all the three rain gauge stations located in Dhasan basin. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been applied to understand and quantify the drought severity on multiple time scale (1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months). The spatiotemporal analysis of drought based on 3-month SPI has also carried out to identify drought years and the regions of the study area which is under the grip of continuous drought events. Based on the 3-month SPI, major drought events have been identified. The maximum drought severity of -11.17 occurred during November 1991 to August 1992 having the longest duration of 10 months, in the area under Sagar rain gauging station. The onset of most of the drought events in the basin take place during the beginning of Kharif season and terminate by the end of August or September, so affect the agricultural crops severely. The spatial variation indicates that during June 2002, about 55.74% of basin area was experiencing severe drought conditions, followed by 35.29% area under moderate drought condition and only 8.97% area faced mild drought conditions. The inter-relationship among the drought duration, number of drought events, drought severity and time scale have been studied.  

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