scholarly journals Functional data analysis of models for predicting temperature and precipitation under climate change scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1748-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Razzaq Ghumman ◽  
Ateeq-ur-Rauf ◽  
Husnain Haider ◽  
Md. Shafiquzamman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data Analysis ◽  
Functional Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Station Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract Evaluating the impact of climatic change on hydrologic variables is highly important for sustainability of water resources. Precipitation and temperature are the two basic parameters which need to be included in climate change impact studies. Thirty years (1985–2015) climatic data of Astore, a sub-catchment of the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB), were analyzed for predicting the temperature and precipitation under different climate change scenarios. The station data were compared with the results of two global climate models (GCMs) each with two emission scenarios, including Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope were applied to explore various properties of precipitation and temperature data series for a trend analysis. The commonalities and dissimilarities between the results of various GCMs and the trend of the station data were investigated using the functional data analysis. Two cross distances were estimated on the basis of Euclidean distances between the predicted time series; subsequently, the differences in their first derivatives were used to evaluate their mutual dissimilarities. The long-term predictions by GCMs show a decreasing trend in precipitation and a slight increase in temperature in some seasons. The result of GCMs under both the emission scenarios showed almost the same pattern of changes in the two hydrologic variables throughout the century with their values reporting slightly higher for the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to those for RCP2.6. Validation of the GCM results using GCM-CSIRO-Mk3.6 revealed an overall agreement between the different models. The dissimilarity analysis manifested the difference between the results of temperature predicted by various GCMs.

Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Andres Romero-Duque ◽  
Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista ◽  
Leonardo David Donado
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP’s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.</p><p>Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Agroforestry Suitability Mapping for the Northwest Provinces of Vietnam

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Quyet Manh Vu ◽  
Tri Dan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
Land Cover Maps ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to assess the potential development of selected agroforestry options for three provinces in the Northwest of Vietnam. Available spatial data including Land use/land cover maps and forest inventory maps were used as the base maps in combination with supplementary data and field survey to determine the potential agroforestry areas. Soil types, soil depth, soil texture, elevation, slope, temperature and rainfall were used to evaluate the biophysical suitability of ten typical agroforestry options in the study region. For assessing the impact of climate change to agroforestry suitability in the future, temperature and precipitation data extracted from two climate changes scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 in 2046–2065) were used. The results showed that the suitable areas for agroforestry development in Dien Bien, Sơn La and Yen Bai provinces were 267.74.01 ha, 405,597.96 ha; and 297,995.55 ha, respectively. Changes in temperature and precipitation by 2 climate change scenarios affected significantly to the suitability of Docynia indica + livestock grass, Teak + plum + coffee + grass and Plum + maize + livestock grass options. The map of agroforestry suitability can be served as a useful source in developing and expanding the area of agroforestry in the target provinces, and can be applied for other provinces in the same region in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals Study on the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Mesoscale Drought in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2761
Author(s):  
Xinglong Gong ◽  
Shuping Du ◽  
Fengyu Li ◽  
Yibo Ding
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Western China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Variation Trends ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

In this study, precipitation, and temperature data from HadGEM2-ES under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to evaluate drought in China in the 21st century. The K-means clustering algorithm was used to analyze the regional characteristics of the dry hazard index (DHI) in China, and the impact of climate change on the variation trend and periodicity of regional drought in China was explored. The results show that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of all clusters have an increasing trend under the two RCPs, and the precipitation of most clusters shows a significantly increasing trend. The drought index calculated by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is higher than those calculated by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized effective precipitation evapotranspiration index (SP*ETI). The variation trends of drought intensity and frequency in China are not significant in the 21st century; however, the local variation trends are significant. The droughts in most parts of the Xinjiang Province, northern Tibet and western Qinghai Province show significantly increasing trends. According to the DHI analyses and the variations in the drought area ratio, with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, the droughts in central and western China will become more severe, and drought will spread to the eastern areas of China. In the case that both precipitation and temperature may increase in the future, the increase in evapotranspiration caused by temperature rise will greatly affect drought dynamics. The main drought periodicity in China in the 21st century is 1~3.6 years. Drought is affected by climate change but not significantly.

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