scholarly journals Sustainability assessment of restoration plans under climate change by using system dynamics: application on Urmia Lake, Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 938-952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Ebrahimi Sarindizaj ◽  
Mahdi Zarghami
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Urmia Lake ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Average Water ◽  
Basin Water

Abstract During the last decade, Urmia Lake has lost most of its surface area. As a result, finding management practices to restore the sustainable ecological status of Urmia Lake, the world's second largest hyper-saline lake, is imperative. In this study, the sustainability of different plans under climate change was assessed using system dynamics. The plans were evaluated with respect to sustainability criteria including reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability measures. According to the results due to different management practices, on average, water consumption should be reduced by at least 30% to restore the lake. The results revealed that only hybrid plans which incorporate multiple management practices, instead of focusing on just one approach, can be influential. Among the hybrid plans, that of increasing irrigation efficiency, reducing cultivated area, changing crop pattern, and inter-basin water transfer was identified as the most sustainable plan. About eight years after applying this plan, the lake will achieve its ecological level and will remain sustainable. Considering comprehensive factors, the proposed model can help watershed managers to take the necessary measures to restore this vital ecosystem. The results of this study can be applied to water resources systems with the same problem, especially those in semi-arid regions with multidisciplinary aspects.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Environmental and Economic Performance of Remote Communities

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Filer ◽  
Steven Schuldt
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Remote Site ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Remote Communities ◽  
Renewable Energy Systems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Waste Management Practices ◽  
Post Disaster

Remote communities such as oil production sites, post-disaster housing camps, and military forwardoperating bases (FOB) are often detached from established infrastructure grids, requiring a constantresupply of resources. In one instance, a 600-person FOB required 22 trucks per day to delivernecessary fuel and water and remove generated wastes. This logistical burden produces negativeenvironmental impacts and increases operational costs. To minimize these consequences,construction planners can implement sustainability measures such as renewable energy systems,improved waste management practices, and energy-efficient equipment. However, integration ofsuch upgrades can increase construction costs, presenting the need for a tool that identifies tradeoffsamong conflicting criteria. To assist planners in these efforts, this paper presents the development ofa novel remote site sustainability assessment model capable of quantifying the environmental andeconomic performance of a set of infrastructure alternatives. Through field data and literatureestimates, a hypothetical FOB is designed and evaluated to demonstrate the model’s distinctivecapability to accurately and efficiently assess construction alternatives. The proposed model willenable construction planners to maximize the sustainability of remote communities, creating sitesthat are more self-sufficient with reduced environmental impacts.Keywords: Sustainability, infrastructure, remote communities

scholarly journals Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications

Water Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanhuan Qin ◽  
Ximing Cai ◽  
Chunmiao Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Water Transfers ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Basin Water

Abstract Sustaining the water supply in megacities is an enormous challenge. To address this challenge, it is especially important to predict water demand changes in megacities. This paper presents a system dynamics model to predict the future water demands of different sectors considering multiple factors, including population, structure of the economy, and water supply and use technologies. Compared with traditional methods such as the time series method and structure analysis method, the proposed model takes into account the interconnections, non-linear relationships and feedbacks between the various factors in a systems context. The model is applied to Beijing, a megacity with a population over 20 million and very limited water availability. It is found that the total water demand is likely to increase by at least 36.1% (up to 62.5%) by 2030 compared with that in 2011, and the water deficits vary from −0.36 × 109 to 1.80 × 109m3 in 2030. In addition, scenarios are designed to account for impacts associated with economic development, climate change and inter-basin water transfers. It is shown that climate change may have a large impact on the water supply reliability in Beijing. The water shortage problems can be alleviated via inter-basin water transfers.

scholarly journals Swiss alpine summer farming: current status and future development under climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Herzog ◽  
Irmi Seidl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Cultural Ecosystem Services ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
European Mountain ◽  
Summer Farm

High altitude grazing is widespread around the globe and also has a long tradition in European mountain regions. One-third of the Swiss farmland consists of summer pastures: seasonally used marginal pastures without permanent settlements, which extend between the grasslands and forests of permanent mountain settlements and unproductive mountain tops. Farmers’ main motivations for using those pastures have been and still are forage provision and health benefits for grazing animals, benefits for labour distribution between home farm and summer farm, and cultural ecosystem services such as the maintenance of a tradition and the associated lifestyle. Yet, remote pastures are being abandoned and are prone to reforestation, while more productive and accessible pastures are intensified. Those processes are related to changes in management practices, to scarcity of labour and – to a lesser extent – to climate change. We summarise the agronomic and ecological status of Swiss summer pastures, in particular with respect to livestock keeping, biodiversity and climate change, and speculate on future trends of summer farming.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PREDICTING THE INDICATORS OF ACCREDITATION OF TECHNICAL UNIVERSITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2017 ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Olga Mikhaylovna Tikhonova ◽  
Alexander Fedorovich Rezchikov ◽  
Vladimir Andreevich Ivashchenko ◽  
Vadim Alekseevich Kushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oriented Graph ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Linear Differential ◽  
The University ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The paper presents the system of predicting the indicators of accreditation of technical universities based on J. Forrester mechanism of system dynamics. According to analysis of cause-and-effect relationships between selected variables of the system (indicators of accreditation of the university) there was built the oriented graph. The complex of mathematical models developed to control the quality of training engineers in Russian higher educational institutions is based on this graph. The article presents an algorithm for constructing a model using one of the simulated variables as an example. The model is a system of non-linear differential equations, the modelling characteristics of the educational process being determined according to the solution of this system. The proposed algorithm for calculating these indicators is based on the system dynamics model and the regression model. The mathematical model is constructed on the basis of the model of system dynamics, which is further tested for compliance with real data using the regression model. The regression model is built on the available statistical data accumulated during the period of the university's work. The proposed approach is aimed at solving complex problems of managing the educational process in universities. The structure of the proposed model repeats the structure of cause-effect relationships in the system, and also provides the person responsible for managing quality control with the ability to quickly and adequately assess the performance of the system.

scholarly journals Determinants of revenue management practices and their impacts on the financial performance of hotels in Kenya: a proposed theoretical framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Murimi ◽  
Billy Wadongo ◽  
Tom Olielo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Revenue Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Theoretical Structure ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Conceptual Paper

AbstractThis conceptual paper aims at identifying a theoretical framework for the determinants of revenue management (RM) practices and their impacts on the financial performance of hotels. To create this framework, a two-phased process is employed where the first stage involves an explicit examination of the literature related to practices of revenue management and their determinants and to hotel financial performance. The second stage involves an enhancement of the framework. The theoretical structure is developed based on past theoretical explanations, and empirical analysis is conducted in the fields of revenue management. The researchers propose a theoretical framework illustrating how revenue management practices and their determinants affect the financial performance of Kenyan hotels. The use of contingency theory and its justifications and inadequacies among studies on revenue management in hotels is highlighted. The methods highlighted by the reviewed theoretical framework may be utilized to organize revenue management (RM) practices and their determinants for Kenyan hotels. Measurements for the financial performance of hotels are also described. Last, the researchers call for empirical research that authenticates the proposed model using a cross-sectional survey. The present work can inspire scholars and specialists to determine how RM practices and their determinants impact the financial performance of hotels. By assimilating knowledge from numerous disciplines, this paper emphasizes aggregated awareness surrounding the conceptualization of RM, RM practices adopted in hotels, and the financial performance of hotels.

scholarly journals The Effect of Elicitors and Canopy Management in the Chemical Composition of Vitis vinifera Red Varieties in Warm and Hot Areas in Spain

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192
Author(s):  
Natalia Gutiérrez ◽  
Leyre López-de-Silanes ◽  
Carlos Escott ◽  
Iris Loira ◽  
Juan Manuel del Fresno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Vitis Vinifera ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Total Phenolic ◽  
Phenolic Fraction ◽  
Biological Origin ◽  
Phenolic Index ◽  
Canopy Management

Canopy management practices in vineyards, such as sprawling systems and shoot trimming, can change the accumulation of metabolites in grapes. The use of elicitors of biological origin on grapevines of Vitis vinifera red grape varieties may also modulate the chemical composition of the berries. These modifications are often observed in the accumulation of phenolic compounds, including pigments. Both technical approaches are alternatives involved in minimizing the effects of global climate change in warm areas. The increase of temperature related to climate change accelerates the accumulation of sugars, but produces unbalanced grapes. This work establishes the use of button sensors to monitor the climate changes occurring at grape cluster level. Together with climate monitoring, conventional instrumental analytical techniques are used to follow up the chemical composition and the phenolic fraction of grapes in four different production areas in Spain. The effect of either treatment seems variable and to be affected by external factors besides the treatment itself and the climate conditions. While there is a fine effect that correlates with the use of elicitors in varieties like Merlot and Tempranillo, there is minimal improvement observed in Tintilla de Rota. The total phenolic index increases were between 2.3% and 11.8% in the first two parcels. The same happened with the vineyard’s canopy management systems, with increased pigment accumulation and the total phenolic index rising (37.7% to 68.7%) after applying intense shoot trimming, or a variation in sugar concentrations when using sprawl conduction. This study aims to provide viticulturists and oenologists in particular, and farmers in general, with data on the field regarding the use of alternative sustainable practices in the cultivation of grapes. The techniques used involved 100% natural products without adjuvants. The benefits obtained from applying some of these practices would be to produce technically mature grapes despite climate changes, and the elaboration of more balanced wines.

A modern perspective on Meinecke’s 1929 assessment of tourist impacts on redwoods

2021 ◽  
pp. 030913332110299
Author(s):  
Ross H Martin ◽  
Joshua B Hodge ◽  
Clayton J Whitesides
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Compaction ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tree Roots ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Modern Perspective ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

E.P. Meinecke, a noted plant pathologist and staunch supporter of conservation, authored an influential article about the impacts of tourism on redwood trees. In the Effect of Excessive Tourist Travel on the California Redwood Parks, published in 1929, Meinecke found that soil compaction by tourists had a negative impact on tree roots and his recommendations for amelioration were both logical and laced with philosophical ideals. We revisit that report with a modern perspective by reviewing his findings and suggestions, and by comparing his ideas with modern research and tourism management practices. One of Meinecke’s greatest concerns was the advent of the automobile and its ability to bring more people to redwood groves. We take that concern to the next logical step and discuss potential impacts of climate change on redwood trees.

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