Vulnerability of Mexico City's water supply sources in the context of climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Martinez ◽  
Stefanie Kralisch ◽  
Oscar Escolero ◽  
Maria Perevochtchikova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Sources ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Regional Water

In the context of growing urbanization and climate change, the issue of how to best secure and increase future water supply in developing countries is key. To support informed decision-making in Mexico City, a comprehensive study was conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change and the vulnerability of water sources. The infrastructural, environmental and administrative factors affecting the water available from each source were identified and evaluated, and then combined with the likely impacts in regional water availability estimated using results from two global circulation models and two emission scenarios. The results obtained indicate that the water sources outside Mexico City, such as the Cutzamala and Lerma systems, are the most vulnerable. The current situation is likely to become worse as a result of climate change, as projections suggest a 10–17% reduction in water availability by 2050. When responsible agencies decide the strategies to secure and increase water supply, they will have to consider the prevailing and potential conflicts, the local water demand, the contribution to the city's greenhouse gas emissions and future changes in water availability.

Incorporating long-term trends in water availability in water supply planning

2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 113-120
Author(s):  
D. Luketina ◽  
M. Bender
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Planning Time ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Supply Planning ◽  
Decadal Climate

This paper examines factors affecting water availability and hydrological trends of water supply. The relative impacts of the different factors have been assessed on a planning time frame of around 30 years. It is demonstrated that the non-greenhouse processes of multi-decadal climate change and el Niño-la Niña climate change will almost certainly be more significant than greenhouse induced climate change. Further, in developing countries, increased water consumption, population growth, and urbanization are likely to be the dominant factors when considering water availability. The type of responses that a water supply organization can make are discussed.

scholarly journals Climate Change impacts the <i>Water Highway</i> project in Morocco

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by a significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient decreasing from the North to the South. In order to redistribute water, a project is proposed to transfer 860 million m3 per year from the wet north to the arid southern regions, {Water Highway}. The present study aims to address the viability of the project including the effects of climate change in the watersheds located in the North. We perform Regional Climate Model (RCMs) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and following two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation is assessed and the decrease of available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5 the project is likely unfeasible. However, under the RCP4.5 a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Jing Yang ◽  
Robert Bergquist
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Parasite Stage ◽  
Near Future

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

Linking global climate change to local water availability: Limitations and prospects for a tropical mountain watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 650 ◽  
pp. 2577-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. González-Zeas ◽  
B. Erazo ◽  
P. Lloret ◽  
B. De Bièvre ◽  
S. Steinschneider ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Mountain Watershed ◽  
Tropical Mountain ◽  
Local Water

scholarly journals Reservoir yield intercomparison of large dams in Jaguaribe Basin-CE in climate change scenarios

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato de Oliveira Fernandes ◽  
Cleiton da Silva Silveira ◽  
Ticiana Marinho de Carvalho Studart ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Reservoir Yield

ABSTRACT Climate changes can have different impacts on water resources. Strategies to adapt to climate changes depend on impact studies. In this context, this study aimed to estimate the impact that changes in precipitation, projected by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) may cause on reservoir yield (Q90) of large reservoirs (Castanhão and Banabuiú), located in the Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceará. The rainfall data are from 20 GCMs using two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The precipitation projections were used as input data for the rainfall-runoff model (SMAP) and, after the reservoirs’ inflow generation, the reservoir yields were simulated in the AcquaNet model, for the time periods of 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The results were analyzed and presented a great divergence, in sign (increase or decrease) and in the magnitude of change of Q90. However, most Q90 projections indicated reduction in both reservoirs, for the two periods, especially at the end of the 21th century.

scholarly journals Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 23-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kishiwa ◽  
Joel Nobert ◽  
Victor Kongo ◽  
Preksedis Ndomba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16–18 % in 2050s relative to 1980–1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 ∘C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

scholarly journals Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Simulate the Current Temperature Only If the Shortwave Radiation Anomaly of the 2000s Has Been Omitted

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Antero Ollila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement

The research article of Gillett et al. was published in Nature Climate Change (NCC) in March 2021. The objective of the NCC study was to simulate human-induced forcings to warming by applying 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate models. NCC did not accept the author’s remarks as a “Matters arising” article. The purpose of this article is to detail the original three remarks and one additional remark: 1) the discrepancy between the graphs and reported numerical values, 2) the forcings of aerosols and clouds, 3) the positive water feedback, and 4) the calculation basis of the Paris agreement. The most important finding is that General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in simulations omit the significant shortwave anomaly from 2001 to 2019, which causes a temperature error of 0.3°C according to climate change physics of Gillett et al. For the year 2019, this error is 0.8°C showing the magnitude of shortwave anomaly impact. The main reason for this error turns out to be the positive water feedback generally applied in climate models. The scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement is faulty for the same reason.

Challenges for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Botswana

2018 ◽  
pp. 115-127
Author(s):  
P. K. Kenabatho ◽  
B. P. Parida
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
Car Wash

Like many semi-arid areas of Africa, Botswana continues to experience inadequate water supply particularly in the southern part of the country. In the last ten years, water restrictions have become part of water demand strategy aimed at maintaining sustainable water supply throughout the year. This has affected many economic sectors particularly small scale enterprises which directly rely on water for their business operations such as car wash and landscaping businesses. The issue of inadequate water availability and supply is more pronounced in Gaborone, the capital city of Botswana which relies on Gaborone dam as the main source of water to drive the economy. The dam was last filled to capacity in 2006 and has not spilled since then. While there are several factors affecting the inflows to the dams, rainfall is the principal candidate limiting water availability in the area. Past studies have shown a decline in rainfall and an increase in temperature since 1982. However, there are uncertainties associated with rainfall data, mainly regarding the presence of missing values which affect many hydrological modelling tools. In this chapter, we focus specifically on the effects of missing rainfall data and data infilling strategies on hydrological applications using rainfall and hydrological modelling tools. We also demonstrate the implications of these on spatial rainfall interpolation methods based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Our discussion focuses on the value of data as a priority developmental issue which should receive utmost attention particularly in the wake of climate change.

scholarly journals Hybrid water vapor sorbent design with pollution shielding property: extract clean water from polluted bulk water sources

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renyuan Li ◽  
Mengchun Wu ◽  
Yusuf Shi ◽  
Sara Aleid ◽  
Wenbin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Bulk Water ◽  
Water Sources ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Local Water

The shortage and contamination of local water resources have long been a challenge especially for the off-grid communities without centralized water supply. The emerging solar photothermal distillation lacks the capability...

Forecasting climate-driven changes in the geographical range of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 1288-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Raybaud ◽  
Mahmoud Bacha ◽  
Rachid Amara ◽  
Grégory Beaugrand
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
European Anchovy ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Key Species ◽  
Business As Usual

Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems and the responses of living-resources to warming waters are various, ranging from the modifications in the abundance of key species to phenologic and biogeographic shifts. Here, we used a recently developed Ecological Niche Model (ENM) to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the future geographical distribution of the European anchovy. We first modelled the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of the fish and projected its future spatial range using new IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios and five of the latest generation of ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. We chose this multi-model and multi-scenario approach to evaluate the range of possible trajectories until the end of the century. Our projections indicate that substantial poleward shifts in the probability of anchovy occurrence are very likely and highlight areas where European anchovy fisheries are forecasted to change most. Whatever the warming scenario, our results project a reduction in the probability of occurrence in all the regions located under 48°N and an increase in more northern areas. However, increases or decreases in the probability of occurrence are greater under the “business-as-usual” scenario RCP8.5 than under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6.

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