Assessing water demands and coverage sensitivity to climate change in the urban and rural sectors in central Chile

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Meza ◽  
Sebastián Vicuña ◽  
Mark Jelinek ◽  
Eduardo Bustos ◽  
Sebastián Bonelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Snow dominated basins in the subtropics are susceptible to climate change, since evaporation and streamflows are affected, impacting key water sectors and increasing the risk of water shortages. This paper shows an integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on the major water users in the Maipo Basin of Chile, allowing a direct comparison between competing sectors, describing their sensitivity to future climate changes instead of focusing on individual scenarios, and assessing the effect of likely responses, such as pumping, that impact groundwater levels. We developed a statistical downscaling mechanism to correct biases in global circulation model projections and ran a hydrological model to determine the impacts of climate change on the ability of the system to meet water demands. Mean coverage and minimum coverage of urban and agricultural sectors are sensitive to climate change, particularly to larger changes in precipitation. The urban sector is less sensitive because of higher reliability standards and holds a greater fraction of water-use rights in comparison to actual withdrawals. In addition, groundwater pumping represents an additional source of water to meet population demands. However, this favorable condition could no longer be present if climate change also affects aquifer recharge dynamics.

scholarly journals The study of potential evapotranspiration in future periods due to climate change in west of Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Rajabi ◽  
Zahra Babakhani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Change Effect ◽  
Climate Change Effect

Purpose This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods. Design/methodology/approach Daily minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation weather parameters have been downscaled by global circulation model (GCM) and Lars-WG outputs. Weather data have been estimated according to the Had-CM3 GCM and by A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011-2030, 2045-2046 and 2080-2099. To select the more suitable method for ETP estimation, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method and the Priestly–Taylor (P-T) method have been compared with the Penman-Monteith (P-M) method. Regarding the fact that the H-S method has been in better accordance with the P-M method, ETP in future periods has been estimated by this method for different scenarios. Findings In all five stations, in all three scenarios and in all three periods, ETP will increase. The highest ETP increase will occur in the A1B scenario and then in the A1 scenario. The lowest increase will occur in the B1 scenario. In the 2020 decade, the highest ETP increase in three scenarios will occur in Khorramabad and then Hamedan. Kermanshah, Sanandaj and Ilam stations come at third to fifth place, respectively, with a close increase in amount. In the 2050 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios are close to each other in all the five stations. In the 2080 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios will be close to each other in four stations, namely, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, Khorramabad and Hamedan, and Ilam station will have a higher increase compared with the other four stations. Originality/value Meanwhile, the highest ETP increase will occur in hot months of the year, which are significant with regard to irrigation and water resources.

scholarly journals Trend of Climate Change in Nepal: The Case from Morang District

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 104-111
Author(s):  
Suman Kumar Shrestha ◽  
Prajwal Man Pradhan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Production Trend ◽  
Policies And Programs

Global circulation model (GCM) projections indicate that the temperature over Nepal will increase between 0.5ºC and 2.0ºC with a multi-model mean of 1.4ºC, by the 2030s and between 3.0ºC and 6.3ºC, with a multi-model mean of 4.70C, by the 2090s. In this context, this paper highlights trend of climate change and its impact on crop production practices of Morang district. The research issues are appraised based on secondary data and document review. This study found that crops production trend has been changed in Morang District. It has decreased from 392330 metric ton in 2068/69 into 318841 metric ton in 2069/70. However, the production of Paddy wheat, maize, oilseed, pulses, potato, vegetables fruits and jute are loss but millet, sugarcane, spices, fish, tea, cardamom and mushroom are increased.Due to climate change, different types of insects are attacking Soil fertility is also declining. Climate change has led to a decline in agricultural production due to floods, inundation of arable lands, changes in the timing of cultivation, and failure of previously planted fertilizer seeds. Therefore, the local and central government must provide subsidy to the marginal farmers through the affirmative attractive policies and programs.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and grazing pressure on shrub communities of West Asian rangelands

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 660-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mounir Louhaichi ◽  
Azaiez Ouled Belgacem ◽  
Steven L. Petersen ◽  
Sawsan Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Grazing Pressure ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Landscape Type ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Mean

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of the important rangeland shrub,Atriplex leucoclada(Boiss) to both climate change and livestock grazing, within the Syrian rangelands as a representative landscape type of West Asia.Design/methodology/approachEcologically based quantitative niche models were developed for both shrub species using maximum entropy and 13 spatially explicit GIS-based layers to predict current and future species distribution scenarios. Climatic variables varied over time in line with the predictions created from the HADCM3 global circulation model.FindingsResults indicate that with grazing and climate change, the distribution ofA. leucocladawill be reduced by 54 per cent in 2050, with the mean annual and minimum temperatures of the coldest month having the highest contribution in the model (28.7 and 21.2 per cent, respectively). The contribution of the grazing pressure, expressed by the overgrazing index, was estimated at 8.2 per cent.Originality/valueThese results suggest that the interaction of climate and increased grazing has the potential to favor the establishment of unpalatable species, while reducing the distribution of preferred plant species on western Asia rangelands.

scholarly journals Decrease of the water recharge and identification of water recharge zones in the Alto Atoyac sub-basin, Oaxaca, as a result of climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Antonio Ojeda Olivares ◽  
Salvador Isidro Belmonte Jimenez ◽  
Tim K. Takaro ◽  
Jose Oscar Campos Enriquez ◽  
Maria Ladrón de Guevara Torres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Local Adaptations ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Water Recharge ◽  
Permeable Soil

Abstract This study analyzes effects of climate change (CCh) and of the increase of impervious surfaces on the groundwater recharge in the Alto Atoyac sub-basin (Oaxaca, southern Mexico). Water recharge was modeled based on HELP 3.95D; temperature and precipitation were derived, for a near (2015–2039) and a far distant future scenario, from GFDL-CM3 global circulation model (GCM), which describes the climate of Mexico under the RCP8.5 scenario. Potential recharge loss zones for the period of 1979–2013 were estimated through a remote sensing analysis. The actual estimated mean annual recharge of 169 million cubic metres could be reduced by 17.97% and 65.09% according to the analyzed CCh scenarios, and the loss of 135 km2 of permeable soil would represent additionally 2.65 × 106 m3 of non-infiltrated water. This study indicates three sites, with high recharge potential, and it can be used to propose local adaptations to guarantee the availability of the water resource in the studied sub-basin.

Downscaling Global Circulation Model Projections of Climate Change for the United Arab Emirates

2015 ◽  
Vol 141 (9) ◽  
pp. 04015007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abubaker Elhakeem ◽  
Walid Elsayed Elshorbagy ◽  
Hazem AlNaser ◽  
Francina Dominguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation

scholarly journals A Comparative Evaluation of a Mesoscale Model and Atmospheric Global Circulation Model for Air Quality Simulation: A Multiscale, Multisite Evaluation

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Goswami ◽  
J. Baruah
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Large City ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Urban Pollution ◽  
Atmospheric Pollutants ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Meso Scale

Concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are strongly influenced by meteorological parameters like rainfall, relative humidity and wind advection. Thus accurate specifications of the meteorological fields, and their effects on pollutants, are critical requirements for successful modelling of air pollution. In terms of their applications, pollutant concentration models can be used in different ways; in one, short term high resolution forecasts are generated to predict and manage urban pollution. Another application of dynamical pollution models is to generate outlook for a given airbasin, such as over a large city. An important question is application-specific model configuration for the meteorological simulations. While a meso-scale model provides a high-resolution configuration, a global model allows better simulation of large-sale fields through its global environment. Our objective is to comparatively evaluate a meso-scale atmospheric model (MM5) and atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) in simulating different species of pollutants over different airbasins. In this study we consider four locations: ITO (Central Delhi), Sirifort (South Delhi), Bandra (Mumbai) and Karve Road (Pune). The results show that both the model configurations provide comparable skills in simulation of monthly and annual loads, although the skill of the meso-scale model is somewhat higher, especially at shorter time scales.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

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