scholarly journals East Asian Climate Change in the 21st Century as Simulated by the Coupled Climate Model ECHO-G under IPCC SRES Scenarios

2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-Ki MIN ◽  
Stephanie LEGUTKE ◽  
Andreas HENSE ◽  
Ulrich CUBASCH ◽  
Won-Tae KWON ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
East Asian Climate ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Copper Demand and Supply Simulation in 21st Century Based on the IPCC SRES Scenarios

2004 ◽  
Vol 120 (12) ◽  
pp. 681-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji TOKIMATSU ◽  
Toshihide ITO ◽  
Takayoshi SHINKUMA ◽  
Kazuhiko FURUKAWA ◽  
Toshisuke OGIWARA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (16) ◽  
pp. 14-1-14-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schaeffer ◽  
F. M. Selten ◽  
J. D. Opsteegh ◽  
H. Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Sres Scenarios ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Ipcc Sres Scenarios

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

Potential natural vegetation dynamics driven by future long-term climate change and its hydrological impacts in the Hanjiang River basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Yuan ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Yonghua Zhu ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Potential Natural Vegetation ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall–runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTs and LAIs. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses.

scholarly journals Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (17) ◽  
pp. 4640-4645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Zhao ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Huijun J. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Socioeconomic Changes

Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, high-temperature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. On average, the total HTS in China is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y (US $6.22 billion/y) over the 1979–2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Assuming that the HTS standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total HTS may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. We further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased HTS cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. Accounting for the likely possibility that HTS standards follow the wages, the share of GDP devoted to HTS could become as high as 3% at the end of 21st century.

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