scholarly journals Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (16) ◽  
pp. 14-1-14-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schaeffer ◽  
F. M. Selten ◽  
J. D. Opsteegh ◽  
H. Goosse
2006 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-Ki MIN ◽  
Stephanie LEGUTKE ◽  
Andreas HENSE ◽  
Ulrich CUBASCH ◽  
Won-Tae KWON ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 6445-6471 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Mora ◽  
L. Campozano ◽  
F. Cisneros ◽  
G. Wyseure ◽  
P. Willems

Abstract. Investigation was made on the climate change signal for hydrometeorological and hydrological variables for the Paute River basin, in southern Ecuador Andes, making use of an adjusted quantile perturbation approach for climate downscaling, and the impact of climate change on runoff for two nested catchments within the basin. The analysis was done making use of long daily series of seven representative rainfall and temperature sites along the study area and considering climate change signals of global and regional climate models for IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The determination of runoff was carried out using a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The study found that the range of changes in temperature is despicably lower that the range of changes in rainfall. However, changes differ from site to site, showing that more significant changes in temperature are observed at higher elevation sites. For rainfall, high differences in rainfall change are found and strongly related to the rainfall regime. Higher changes are detected for sites located in regions with bimodal rainfall regime. In addition, higher changes are observed on higher temporal resolutions. The runoff changes are strongly related to the changes in rainfall peaks, more than with the changes in temperature; also showing strong spatial differences over the Andean region considered.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3704
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Karman ◽  
Andrzej Miszczuk ◽  
Urszula Bronisz

The article deals with the competitiveness of regions in the face of climate change. The aim was to present the concept of measuring the Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index. We used a comparative and logical analysis of the concept of regional competitiveness and heuristic conceptual methods to construct the index and measurement scale. The structure of the index includes six broad sub-indexes: Basic, Natural, Efficiency, Innovation, Sectoral, Social, and 89 indicators. A practical application of the model was presented for the Mazowieckie province in Poland. This allowed the region’s performance in the context of climate change to be presented, and regional weaknesses in the process of adaptation to climate change to be identified. The conclusions of the research confirm the possibility of applying the Regional Climate Change Competitiveness Index in the economic analysis and strategic planning. The presented model constitutes one of the earliest tools for the evaluation of climate change competitiveness at a regional level.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1563-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. O. Reyer ◽  
Kanta Kumari Rigaud ◽  
Erick Fernandes ◽  
William Hare ◽  
Olivia Serdeczny ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 40-41 ◽  
pp. 32-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Zampieri ◽  
F. Giorgi ◽  
P. Lionello ◽  
G. Nikulin

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