scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Clinical Prognostic Risk Score to Predict Early Neonatal Mortality, Ethiopia: A Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol Volume 13 ◽  
pp. 637-647
Author(s):  
Alemayehu Digssie Gebremariam ◽  
Sofonyas Abebaw Tiruneh ◽  
Melaku Tadege Engidaw ◽  
Desalegn Tesfa ◽  
Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Neonatal Mortality ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Early Neonatal Mortality ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Development And Validation

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

scholarly journals Adjustment for the measurement error in evaluating biomarker performances at baseline for future survival outcomes: Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve within a joint modelling framework

2020 ◽  
pp. 263208432097225
Author(s):  
Ruwanthi Kolamunnage-Dona ◽  
Adina Najwa Kamarudin
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Survival Outcomes ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

The performance of a biomarker is defined by how well the biomarker is capable to distinguish between healthy and diseased individuals. This assessment is usually based on the baseline value of the biomarker; the value at the earliest time point of the patient follow-up, and quantified by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis. However, the observed baseline value is often subjected to measurement error due to imperfect laboratory conditions and limited machine precision. Failing to adjust for measurement error may underestimate the true performance of the biomarker, and in a direct comparison, useful biomarkers could be overlooked. We develop a novel approach to account for measurement error when calculating the performance of the baseline biomarker value for future survival outcomes. We adopt a joint longitudinal and survival data modelling formulation and use the available longitudinally repeated values of the biomarker to make adjustment of the measurement error in time-dependent ROC curve analysis. Our simulation study shows that the proposed measurement error-adjusted estimator is more efficient for evaluating the performance of the biomarker than estimators ignoring the measurement error. The proposed method is illustrated using Mayo Clinic primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) study.

scholarly journals A Probabilistic Model for Cushing’s Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. 3747-3754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio León-Justel ◽  
Ainara Madrazo-Atutxa ◽  
Ana I. Alvarez-Rios ◽  
Rocio Infantes-Fontán ◽  
Juan A. Garcia-Arnés ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
At Risk Populations ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Context: Cushing’s syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. Objective: To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Design: Observational, prospective, multicenter. Setting: Referral hospital. Patients: A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. Interventions: All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Main Outcome Measures: Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Results: Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. Conclusions: We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

scholarly journals Evaluating Predictors of Apple Scab with Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (6) ◽  
pp. 679-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Turechek ◽  
Wayne F. Wilcox
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Apple Scab ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Immature Fruit ◽  
Action Threshold ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Apple scab (Venturia inaequalis) is a perennial threat to apple production in temperate climates throughout the world. In the eastern United States, apple scab is managed almost exclusively through the regular application of fungicides. Management of the primary phase of disease is focused on preventing infection by ascospores. Management of secondary cycles of infection is largely dependent on how well primary infections were controlled. In this study, we used receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to evaluate how well mid-season assessments of the incidence of apple scab on cluster leaves, clusters (i.e., the whorl of cluster leaves), or immature fruit can serve as predictors of apple scab on harvested fruit (harvest scab) and whether these mid-season assessments of scab could be used reliably to manage scab under various damage thresholds. Results showed that assessment of scab on immature fruit was superior at predicting harvest scab than were assessments made on clusters or cluster leaves at all damage thresholds evaluated. A management action threshold of 7% scab incidence on immature fruit was identified by Youden's index as the optimal action threshold to prevent harvest scab incidence from exceeding 5%. Action thresholds could be higher or lower than 7% when economic assumptions were factored in to the decision process. The utility of such a predictor is discussed.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a Commercial Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay for the Diagnosis of Paratuberculosis in Dairy Cattle

1995 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 488-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond W. Sweeney ◽  
Robert H. Whitlock ◽  
Carol L. Buckley ◽  
Pam A. Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Improve Performance ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Elisa Result ◽  
Clinical Cases

The performance of a commercially available ELISA for detection of antibodies to Mycobacterium paratuberculosis was evaluated using sera from 1,146 cows. Samples were from uninfected cattle, infected subclinical cattle shedding low numbers of organism in feces, subclinical heavy shedders, clinical cases, and randomly selected cattle in a slaughterhouse survey for paratuberculosis. The overall sensitivity of the test, using the manufacturer's recommended cutoff was 45% ± 4.8%, and the specificity was 99% ± 0.9%. The ELISA result was significantly correlated with the number of colonies of M. paratuberculosis detected by fecal culturing. The sensitivity of the test was highest for clinical cases of paratuberculosis (87% ± 8.4%), and lowest for subclinical, light-shedding cattle (15% ± 6.6%). Changing the cutoff point did not improve performance of the test. Evaluating ELISA results with a kinetics-based method reduced plate-to-plate variation in results but did not improve performance of the test based on receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.

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