The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

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Early and long-term complications following transanal pull through Soave technique in infants with Hirschsprung's diseaseric infants with Hirschsprung's disease

Medicine and Pharmacy Reports ◽

10.15386/mpr-1314 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Manoochehr Ghorbanpour ◽

Mohammad Ali Seyfrabie ◽

Babak Yousefi

Keyword(s):

Intestinal Obstruction ◽

Hirschsprung's Disease ◽

Hirschsprung’S Disease ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

Case Series ◽

P Value ◽

Short Term ◽

Case Series Study ◽

The Mean

Objective. Patients undergoing Soave surgery for Hirschsprung's disease are at risk for some complications. The aim of this study was to investigate such short-term and long-term complications and evaluate the outcome of the operation in these patients. Methods. A case series study was carried out during the last 12 years, during 2007 to 2018 in Besat hospital of Hamadan. Data collection conducted using a checklist includes questions about demographic information, clinical features, and short-term and long-term complications, and consequences of post-operative surgery. The findings of the study were analyzed using SPSS software version 20 and appropriate statistical tests. P-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results. A total of 55 children underwent Soave surgery during the last 12 years in Besat Hospital Hamadan, Iran. The mean age of the patients was 38±10 days during surgery, of which 56.4% were female. The mean hospital stay was 7.3 days. Also, the mean weight of children at birth was 2970±447 gr. Most of the patients were born as NVD (52.7%) and term (74.5%). The most common comorbidity was congenital heart disease. The most common short-term complication was intestinal obstruction in 14 patients (25.5%) and the most frequent long-term complication was intestinal obstruction and constipation (27.3% each cases). The mortality rate of patients in this study was 14.5% in total. Conclusions. One stage surgical procedure in Hirschsprung's disease is a safe and effective method, but care should be taken in choosing patients and patients should be monitored for possible complications, so that they can be considered and implemented for proper treatment.

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Kontribusi Jumlah Pengunjung Obyek Wisata Dataran Tinggi Dieng Bagi Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kabupaten Wonosobo

JFRES Journal of Fiscal Regional And Economy Studies ◽

10.36883/jfres.v2i2.31 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 26-33

Author(s):

Andryan Setyadharma ◽

Adi Kurniawan Sujatmiko

Keyword(s):

Price Index ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

Consumer Price Index ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Variable Number ◽

Analytical Tool ◽

Short Term ◽

The Real ◽

Local Revenue ◽

Tourism Sector

increasing regional revenue. For a region with limited potential of its’ natural resources it will be a challenge in an attempt to maximize the potential of the region. One of the effort to maximize the regional revenue is by optimizing potential in the tourism sector. Types of data in this research are secondary data such as tourist numbers, consumer price index, General Allocation Grant, and Local Revenue of Wonosobo Regency. The analytical tool is multiple regression analysis with statistical tests and classical assumption. This research aimed to understand the effect of the number of visits tourist, consumer price index, and General Allocation Grant against the Local Revenue of Wonosobo Regency from 2015 to 2017. The results of the regression processing of short-term models show that the consumer price index variable has a significant effect on Regional Original Income with a probability value of 0.0090 smaller than the real level α = 5%. While the variable number of visitors and General Allocation Funds did not have a significant effect on Regional Original Income with a probability value greater than the real level α = 5%.

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Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area

European Journal of Operational Research ◽

10.1016/j.ejor.2006.08.034 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 185 (3) ◽

pp. 1596-1606 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Silvana Musti ◽

Rita Laura D’Ecclesia

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Term Structure ◽

Euro Area ◽

Expectation Hypothesis

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On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends: Comment

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.20131416 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 106 (10) ◽

pp. 3185-3223 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Florian Schulz

Keyword(s):

Term Structure ◽

Risk Premium ◽

Risk Premia ◽

Equity Returns ◽

Equity Risk Premium ◽

Short Term ◽

Equity Risk ◽

Market Portfolio ◽

Show Evidence

I present novel empirical evidence on the term structure of the equity risk premium. In contrast to previous research that documented high discount rates for the short-term component of the market portfolio, I show evidence for an unconditionally flat term structure of equity risk premia. The tension with previous literature arises largely as a result of differential treatments of heterogeneous investment taxes, manifested in micro evidence on abnormal equity returns on ex-dividend days, and liquidity. The results not only help resolve an important recent “puzzle” but provide further important insights on the role of investment taxes in asset pricing. (JEL G11, G12, G35)

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