The Stability of Interest Rate Processes

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. Bliss ◽  
David C. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Processes ◽  
The Stability

NPLs — The Solution Recipe for Albania

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Elona Shehu ◽  
Elona Meka
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
System A ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Asset Quality ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

The quality of the loan portfolio in Albanian banking system is facing many obstacles during the last decade. In this paper we look at possible determinants of assets quality. During the recent financial crisis commercial banks were confronted with deteriorating asset quality that threatened not only the banking industry, but also the stability of the entire financial system. This study aims to examine the correlation between non-performing loans and the macroeconomic determinants in Albania during the last decade. NPLs are considered to be of a high importance as they represent the high risk exposure of banking system. A solid bank with healthy assets increases the market efficiency. Our approach is based on a panel data regression analysis technique from 2005-2015. Within this methodology this study finds robust evidence on the existing relationship between lending interest rate, real GDP growth and NPLs. We expect to find a negative relationship between lending interest rate and asset quality. Further we assume an inverse relationship between GDP growth and non-performing loans, suggesting that NPLs decrease if the economy is growing. Furthermore this study proposes a solution platform, which looks deeper into the possibility of creating a secondary active market for troubled loans, restructuring the banking system or implementing the Podgorica model. This research paper opens a new lieu of discussion in terms of academic debates and decision-making policies.

The Survey-Based Term Premium in Comparison to the Realized Term Premium

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Stable Range ◽  
Wide Margin ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Daunting Task ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Stability

This article constructs a 10-year realized term premium from the 10-year zero coupon Treasury yield in year 1 and the ex post three-month Treasury yields from years 1 to 10. The realized term premium swung wildly until the mid-1980s, and then fluctuated within a fairly stable range showing no trend. In comparison, the term premium derived from surveys of interest rate forecasts (survey-based term premium) was substantially lower than the realized term premium and trended downward since the early 1990s. The large and systematic forecast errors in combination with the stability of the realized term premium suggest possibilities that professional forecasters might have missed the term premium demanded by investors (ex ante term premium) by a wide margin and/or that investors forecast the future paths of interest rates more accurately than professional forecasters. It is also unclear that the survey-based term premium fairly represents the professional forecasters’ estimate of the ex ante term premium, not to mention the ex ante term premium itself. While it would be a daunting task to verify these possibilities, it is fairly clear that surveys of interest rate forecasts are of limited value as an investment guide.

scholarly journals On alternative interest rate processes

1996 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1093-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Dahlquist
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Processes

scholarly journals ANALISIS DINAMIS KETERKAITAN VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2012

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Winta Ratna Sari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Current Account

This study was to analyze the contribution rate (the rupiah against the U.S. dollar), Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and Output Growth (GDP) of the current account balance in Indonesia. The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from Indonesia Financial Statistics. The data used is the data quarterly from the first quarter of 2000 up to 2010 fourth quarter. The results of the estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) indicates that there is a relationship between the Current Account, Exchange Rate, Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP at lag t-1. Impulse response function of the stability of the first note that all variables are in the long run that is over 5 years and tend to be stable. This means that in the short term variables that are used do not provide a meaningful contribution in the long term but will mutually contribute to each other. Variance Decomposition Based on these results, it is known that all variables contributed to the Current Account, but his greatest contribution is of the variable itself, this means that the current account tends to a variable receiving contributions rather than giving contributions

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekonomi Global dan Domestik Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Dini Hariyanti ◽  
Soeharjoto Soekapdjo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Determine Effect

One of the biggest obstacles for countries economic growth compound is inflation. Government attempted to have lower and stable inflation.  Purpose of this research is to determine effect of the global and domestic economy to inflation in Indonesia. Using quarterly time series data from 2009-2018 derived from the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI), International Financial Statistics (IFS), and Investing. ECM regression model used for this research. For short term, interest rate and exchange rates have positive and significant effect to inflation. But money supply, GDP and oil price not significant, while in long term, interest rate and oil price have positive and significant to inflation, while money supply, GDP and exchange rates are not significant. Government policies are monitoring and anticipating global and domestic fluctuation, by  maintaining  the stability of interest rate and exchange rates, and also using environmentally friendly alternatives resources, in order to reducing dependence on oil. Besides that, government needs to undertake increasing of GDP to maintain people purchasing power and money supply distribution for productive sector which have biggest adding value by utilizing local resources.

Forward and Futures Prices with Markovian Interest-Rate Processes

1994 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Benninga ◽  
Aris Protopapadakis
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Rate Processes

scholarly journals Systemic Risk in the Interbank Market with Overlapping Portfolios

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Jiang ◽  
Hong Fan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bipartite Network ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Operating Rules ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

The increasing frequency and scope of the financial crisis have attracted more attention in the research of the systemic risk of banking system. A new model for the interbank market with overlapping portfolios is proposed to simulate a banking system in this work. The proposed model uses a bipartite network of banks and their assets to analyze the impact of bank investment on the stability of the banking system. In addition, this model introduces investment risk and allows banks to make up for liquidity by selling devaluated assets, which reflects the operating rules of the banking system more realistically. The results show that allowing banks to sell devaluated assets to make up for liquidity can improve the stability of the banking system and the interbank market can also improve the stability of the banking system. For the investment of banks, the investment risk is an uncertain factor that affects the stability of the banking system. The proposed model further analyzes the impact of average investment interest rate, savings interest rate, deposit reserve ratio, and investment asset diversity on the stability of the banking system. The model provides a tool for policy-makers and supervision agencies to prevent the systemic risk of banking system.

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