Subjective Probability and Stochastic Independence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Monet ◽  
Vassili Vergopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Stochastic Independence

Subjective Probability of Receiving Harm as a Function of Attraction and Harm Delivered

1971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry R. Schlenker ◽  
Robert Brown ◽  
James T. Tedeschi
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability

Subjective probability and decision strategy.

1969 ◽  
Vol 79 (1, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 133-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Roy Beach ◽  
James A. Wise
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Decision Strategy

scholarly journals Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Evaluation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-115
Author(s):  
Barbara Befani ◽  
Corinna Elsenbroich ◽  
Jen Badham
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Diagnostic Evaluation ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Third Way ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Strength Of Evidence ◽  
Evaluation Subjective

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

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