Disease Diffusion Modelling to Understand the Sources and Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Toronto and Classification of the Risk Areas for Prioritization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nushrat Nazia ◽  
Jane Law ◽  
Zahid Butt
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Diffusion Modelling ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Disease Diffusion

scholarly journals COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Space-and-Time Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Marta Moniz ◽  
Patrícia Soares ◽  
Carla Nunes
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Weekly Basis ◽  
The North ◽  
Critical Areas ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Tagus Valley ◽  
Over Time

<b><i>Background:</i></b> At the end of January 2021, Portugal had over 700,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. The burden of COVID-19 varies between and within countries due to differences in contextual and individual factors, transmission rates, and clinical and public health interventions. <b><i>Objectives:</i></b> To identify high-risk areas, between April and October, on a weekly basis and at the municipality level, and to assess the temporal evolution of COVID-19, considering municipalities classified by incidence levels. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This is an ecological study following a 3-step approach, i.e., (1) calculation of the relative risk (RR) of the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases, weekly, per municipality, using a spatial scan analysis; (2) classification of the municipalities according to the European Centre for Disease Control incidence categorization on November 19; and (3) characterization of RR temporal evolution by incidence groups. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Between April and October, the mean RR was 0.53, with a SD of 1.44, varying between 0 and 46.4. Globally, the north and Lisbon and Tagus Valley (LVT) area were the regions with the highest number of municipalities with a RR above 3.2. In April and beginning of May, most of the municipalities with an RR above 3.2 were from the north, while between May and August most municipalities with an RR above 3.2 were from LVT area. Comparing the incidence in November and retrospectively analyzing the RR showed the huge variation, with municipalities with an RR of 0 at a certain time classified as extremely high in November. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Our results showed considerable variation in RR over time and space, with no consistent “better” or “worst” municipality. In addition to the several factors that influence COVID-19 transmission dynamics, there were some outbreaks over time and throughout the country and this may contribute to explaining the observed variation. Over time, on a weekly basis, it is important to identify critical areas allowing tailored and timely interventions in order to control outbreaks in early stages.

Quantitative effects of network connectivity on epidemics

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (28) ◽  
pp. 2050262
Author(s):  
Zhenzhen Liu ◽  
Xiaoke Xu ◽  
Jianyun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Network Connectivity ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Spreading Speed ◽  
Connection Strength ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Rich Club ◽  
Node Connectivity ◽  
Disease Diffusion

Epidemics are affected by the connectivity of nodes in networks in addition to the cooperation of infection transmission. We investigate quantitatively the effects of node connectivity on transmission dynamics by comparing epidemic diffusion in null models with gradual connection strength. Results show that: (1) the inhomogeneity of network connectivity accelerates the spreading of epidemics, this phenomenon is more significant in the early stage of propagation; (2) the enhancement of connectivity of homogenous nodes restrains epidemic spreading, and the spreading speed correlates negatively with connection strength; (3) the spreading speed of epidemics does not change linearly with the strength of rich-club property, which means that the connectivity among hub nodes does not appreciably affect disease diffusion.

scholarly journals SAFETY IN WINE CELLARS: THE SITUATION IN FRIULI-VENEZIA GIULIA, ITALY

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rino Gubiani ◽  
Michela Vello ◽  
Gianfranco Pergher ◽  
Sirio R.C. Cidivino
Keyword(s):  
Working Environment ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Check List ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
A Value ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Boiler Room ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Friuli Venezia Giulia

The objective of the present work was to set up a method of analysis of the safety levels in the wine industry, using a check list to carry out a survey on 30 wineries located in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region. The checklist, based on previous studies, included more than 500 items, divided into 5 main areas: A) Buildings and workplaces; B) Machinery; C) Logistics; D) Boiler room, electricity plants and fire prevention systems; E) Noise and vibrations. The classification of each of the items was based on risk frequency and seriousness of damage. In order to obtain a value as a whole, different points were assigned to each of them. The results of this work shows that workers are exposed to a variety of hazards and one of the highest scores is connected to machinery. Some of these accidents occur because machines are used for a purpose for which they are unsuitable; others because security systems have not been provided or have been taken off. Other risk areas are the fuel tank or the exhaust oil stocking room. Indoors, the most hazardous areas are the grape unloading and the workshop one. Another result was that the older wine cellars are the most dangerous. The check list can become an important instrument for prevention and a useful tool to test safety levels of the working environment.

scholarly journals Spatial characteristics of waste management in the "city-suburban" system

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Household Waste ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Effective System ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Goal. To establish the dependence of the formation of unauthorized dumps of solid household waste with spatial features and socio-economic factors. Methods. Field, statistical data processing. Results. As a result of inventory of landfills of waste related to urban areas. Babai and s. Zatyshne 23 objects were discovered. Each object is analyzed in accordance with a number of criteria designed to optimize waste accumulation and disposal processes in suburban areas. On the basis of the analysis, all objects are classified and grouped into groups for a number of common features. The conducted analysis and classification of landfills enable to give a clear linking of objects to the spatial features within which they were formed. In addition, the analysis of the socio-economic component gives an idea of the context of the formation of landfills, the features of their further growth and morphological composition. On the basis of the analysis, four zones of risk of the formation and development of unauthorized waste landfills are allocated. Risk zones are allocated on the basis of the number of formed landfills, their area and the dynamics of growth. Conclusions dedicated areas of risk of the formation and growth of unauthorized dumps give the opportunity to build an effective system of environmental management and a program of sanitary clearing of territories. Binding landfill to spatial features and socio-economic factors allows for forecasting and subsequent control, which will be aimed at stopping the formation of new objects. Important in this approach is the concept of "individuality" of populated areas, since identified risk areas for one group of settlements, may be irrelevant for the next territorial cluster of management.

Construction of the Computerized Accident Registration System in a Casualty Department

1980 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Risto Honkanen ◽  
Jarl-Erik Michelsson
Keyword(s):  
Ambulatory Care ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
International Classification Of Diseases ◽  
The Other ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Classification Of Diseases ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Cross Tabulation ◽  
Time Variables

The main benefit of computerized accident registration systems is that they assist, with the help of multi-dimensional cross-tabulation of variables, in the identification of high injury risk areas in the community. The E code of the International Classification of Diseases has been the traditional means for the causal classification of injuries. The applicability of its abridged version in ambulatory care settings was tested by the development of a classification with 50 accident type categories in the framework of the computerized statistics in a large casualty department treating more than 30000 new injuries annually. With maximally effective coding, the proportion of the ‘Other accidents’ category of the E code (E929) of all injuries can be reduced to 10%, but not less than that without its division into subcategories. Obviously, the E code should be further developed, better to meet the needs of ambulatory care. The registration system of this casualty department includes also a 15-category accident place classification, a 3-digit ICD diagnosis as well as demographic and time variables. In order to improve its problem identification power, accident object (agent) should still be added into its variable arsenal.

Integration of GIS and HEC-RAS in Floods Modeling of Martil River (Northern Morocco)

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amina Azouagh ◽  
Rabei El Bardai ◽  
Ismael. Hilal ◽  
Jamal. Stitou el Messari
Keyword(s):  
Water Levels ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
System Model ◽  
Hydraulic Modelling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Flow Configurations ◽  
River Modeling ◽  
Analysis System

This work describes the application of Hec-RASas Hydrologic Engineering Center derived River Analysis System model to the establishmentof floodplain maps for Martil river. Modeling with Hec-Ras enables calculation of, among other variables, water levels, depths and flow velocities for the different flow configurations and different cross-sectional zones along Martil River, i. e., from the confluence with the Lakhmiss and Mhajrat rivers to discharge into the Mediterranean Sea. This investigation, therefore, presents flood mapping and classification of risk areas using the Hec-GeoRas and Hec-Ras hydraulic modelling tools integrated into the Arcgis information system. The results indicate that the use of aerial photographsprovidesa good knowledge of the morphology and physical characteristics of the river, which will help decision makers to prevent floodingin the urban area of Tetuan.

A Critical Review of the Seismic Design Provisions for Ductile Shear Walls of the Canadian Code and Commentary

1975 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 592-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Paulay ◽  
S. M. Uzumeri
Keyword(s):  
Shear Stress ◽  
Seismic Design ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Plastic Hinge ◽  
Shear Walls ◽  
Shear Wall ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Code Provisions

The 1975 Canadian Building Code for the design of reinforced concrete shear wall buildings in high seismic risk areas includes provisions that are new and significant. This paper critically examines some of these provisions, especially as they apply to cantilever shear walls. Clarifications in the definitions of curvature, member, and system ductilities are attempted. The relationship between curvature and system ductility is examined. Code provisions on allowable shear stress in the wall in the plastic hinge region and the provisions for the classification of the walls are discussed. Attention of the designer is drawn to some aspects of the code and the commentary that may result in structures of doubtful safety.

scholarly journals Method Development to Assess the Enterprise Financial Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1540-1543
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Method Development ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Risk Event ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Financial Transactions

The activities of the enterprise are associated with financial risks, the management of which is considered mandatory to ensure sustainable and efficient functioning. Underestimation or reassessment of financial risks can lead to financial losses; therefore, the result of the organization’s risk management depends on the quality of the financial risk assessment. The article presents: the concept of “financial risk” formulated by the authors; classification of financial transactions by risk areas; the developed methodology for assessing financial risks is presented, consisting of two successive stages (calculating the amount of damage and calculating the probability of occurrence of financial risk after identifying a risk event; the developed methodology for monitoring financial risks and calculating the residual value of financial risk is presented; the developed methods for quantitative and qualitative assessment of financial risks are presented; a methodology for determining the development of scenario analysis of financial risk assessment is presented.

Classification of risk areas using a bootstrap-aggregated ensemble approach for reducing Zika virus infection in pregnant women

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 289-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mário W.L. Moreira ◽  
Joel J.P.C. Rodrigues ◽  
Francisco H.C. Carvalho ◽  
Jalal Al-Muhtadi ◽  
Sergey Kozlov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Infection ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Zika Virus Infection ◽  
Risk Areas
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