Sector Rotation with Leading Macroeconomic Indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manan Jain
Keyword(s):  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Sector Rotation

Sector Rotation with Leading Macroeconomic Indicators

2022 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manan Jain
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Durables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Degree Of Association ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Sector Rotation

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine whether the theory of sector rotation has been empirically valid in the Indian equity market, during the period April, 2000 to March, 2020. The time period has been divided into many sub-periods according to the real GDP growth rate and the annualized returns of eleven stock market indices have been analyzed in different periods. Going forward, leading macroeconomic indicators, which coincide with overall economy, have been taken and their association with stock market indices have been analyzed through statistical measures to assess any possible forecasting. In the first part of the study, cyclical and non-cyclical sectors have been found to beat the benchmark index during periods of growth and stagnancy, respectively, but no particular ordinality was observed. Amongst the leading economic variables, M3 Money Supply was found to have high degree of association with some indices, namely Sensex, Healthcare, CDGS, Consumer Durables and IT, but no linear relation was observed.

National Currency Appreciation and Growth of the Russian Economy

2004 ◽  
pp. 95-111
Author(s):  
T. Zolotoukhina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

Investment Processes in the Russian Economy

2004 ◽  
pp. 4-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Lisin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The problem of interaction between Russian currency appreciation and positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is studied. Main economic factors of ruble appreciation are analyzed. Consequences of the Russian Central Bank's policy directed to oppose ruble appreciation and problems in financial area due to the increase of money supply through the exchange market are considered. Influence of exchange rate appreciation on economic growth, inflation, export, import, capital flows are discussed. It is concluded that Russian ruble appreciation stimulates an increase in efficiency of the Russian economy.

Perspectives on inflation Targeting Regime in Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indirect Control ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Private And Public

The paper analyzes monetary policy of the Bank of Russia from 2008 to 2014. It presents the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators testifying to inability of the Bank of Russia to transit to inflation targeting regime. It is shown that the presence of short-term interest rates in the top borders of the percentage corridor does not allow to consider the key rate as a basic tool of monetary policy. The article justifies that stability of domestic prices is impossible with-out exchange rate stability. It is proved that to decrease excessive volatility on national consumer and financial markets it is reasonable to apply a policy of managing financial account, actively using for this purpose direct and indirect control tools for the cross-border flows of the private and public capital.

Stress-testing Russian Banking System: Will Banks Need Government Assistance Again?

2010 ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solntsev ◽  
A. Pestova ◽  
M. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Stress Testing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Government Assistance ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Remote Stress ◽  
Capital Injections

The article analyzes factors that affect growth of the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio of Russian banks and proposes approaches for this share forecasting on the basis of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. It also deals with methodological issues of remote stress-test of lending agencies. Using the results of conducted stress-test of Russian banks the authors assess their perspective capital needs in 2010 and estimate the share of government assistance in capital injections. Furthermore, the authors define the scale of vulnerable banks groups in the Russian banking sector.

Using Market Prices to Guide Sector Rotation

1997 ◽  
Vol 1997 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-57
Author(s):  
Richard M. Salsman
Keyword(s):  
Market Prices ◽  
Sector Rotation

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1133-1153
Author(s):  
A.T. Kozinova
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Instability ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.

Convergence Problems in the Eurozone

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 315-327
Author(s):  
Tomasz Wierzejski ◽  
Małgorzata Siemionek
Keyword(s):  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Convergence Problems

This paper analyses the issue of convergence in the Eurozone. The overarching objective was to evaluate the monetary and fiscal convergence of the countries in the Eurozone during the recent period. A further goal was to establish recommendations boosting the economic efficiency of the analysed currency integration of the Eurozone. The paper pinpoints crucial theoretical underpinnings and the current analysis of the Eurozone. Empirical data pertinent to macroeconomic indicators, which were collated and statistically analysed, were also used to delineate crucial issues of convergence in the Eurozone. 

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