Identifying Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks Using Sign Restrictions and Higher-Order Moments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Bekaert ◽  
Eric C. Engstrom ◽  
Andrey Ermolov
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Higher Order Moments ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Sign Restrictions

DO GLOBAL CRUDE OIL MARKET SHOCKS HAVE DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS ON US REGIONS?

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1978-2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bebonchu Atems ◽  
Mark Melichar
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Industrial Composition ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Market Shocks

The paper investigates whether US regions respond differently to shocks in the crude oil market. We disentangle oil market shocks into distinct demand and supply shocks and examine the response of regional personal income to these shocks. Results indicate that for most regions, oil supply shocks decrease real personal income. Except for the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest, global aggregate demand shocks are recessionary, typically about a year and a half after the shock. When we split our data into oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions, we find that global aggregate demand shocks have no effect on oil-producing regions but cause a decrease in income in non-oil-producing regions. Our analysis further indicates that oil-specific demand shocks have positive and persistent impacts on oil-producing regions but are recessionary in non-oil-producing regions. We also document significant asymmetries in the regional responses to small versus large oil shocks. In addition, the paper shows that regional differences in industrial composition explain some of the variation in the responses of real regional personal income to oil shocks.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document