scholarly journals Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market: How to Check Sign Restrictions in Structural VARs

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Luetkepohl ◽  
Aleksei Netsunajev
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Sign Restrictions ◽  
Structural Vars

DO GLOBAL CRUDE OIL MARKET SHOCKS HAVE DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS ON US REGIONS?

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1978-2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bebonchu Atems ◽  
Mark Melichar
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Industrial Composition ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Market Shocks

The paper investigates whether US regions respond differently to shocks in the crude oil market. We disentangle oil market shocks into distinct demand and supply shocks and examine the response of regional personal income to these shocks. Results indicate that for most regions, oil supply shocks decrease real personal income. Except for the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest, global aggregate demand shocks are recessionary, typically about a year and a half after the shock. When we split our data into oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions, we find that global aggregate demand shocks have no effect on oil-producing regions but cause a decrease in income in non-oil-producing regions. Our analysis further indicates that oil-specific demand shocks have positive and persistent impacts on oil-producing regions but are recessionary in non-oil-producing regions. We also document significant asymmetries in the regional responses to small versus large oil shocks. In addition, the paper shows that regional differences in industrial composition explain some of the variation in the responses of real regional personal income to oil shocks.

Crude oil price hikes and issues for energy security for Southern Africa

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jabavu Clifford Nkomo
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Potential Use

This paper addresses a number of issues related to crude oil prices, focusing on Southern Africa. It begins by analysing oil price movements from 1970 to 2008, and examines various factors that may have contributed to the sharp rise and fall in prices. A characteristic feature in the oil market is the time lags it takes to react to price changes. A high oil intensity of GDP makes the economy vulnerable to oil price increases, so that countries with a high oil/GDP ratio are harder hit than others. There are two main issues for energy security: first, on whether the potential use of the oil weapon can be taken seriously; and second, how to minimize vulnerability to oil supply shocks by reducing oil dependence and by a developing or enlarging a strategic stockpile of oil.

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (3) ◽  
pp. 1053-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Real Price ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

scholarly journals CHANGES IN DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF THE CRUDE OIL MARKET DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE NATURAL GAS MARKET

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Nandan Limakrisna ◽  
Edhie Budi Setiawan ◽  
Lira Agusinta ◽  
Ryan Firdianyah ◽  
Prasadja Ricardianto
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Natural Gas Market ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Gas Market

Contango in Cushing? - Evidence on Financial-Physical Interactions in the U.S. Crude Oil Market

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis H. Ederington ◽  
Chitru S. Fernando ◽  
Kateryna V. Holland ◽  
Thomas K. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Physical Interactions ◽  
The U.S
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