Climate Change in the Arctic and Future Directions for Adaptation: Views From Non-Arctic States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Timonin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Directions

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals Future trajectories of festival research

2021 ◽  
pp. 146879762199293
Author(s):  
Michelle Duffy ◽  
Judith Mair
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Theory Development ◽  
Departure Point ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Tourism Research ◽  
Sense Of Purpose ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
The World

In their editorial for the first issue of Tourist Studies, Adrian Franklin and Mike Crang made us aware that tourism research had shifted to an exploration of the extraordinary everyday where ‘more or less everyone now lives in a world rendered or reconfigured as interesting, entertaining and attractive – for tourists’. From our standpoint 20 years later, we suggest this particular departure point has important insights to offer our understanding of a quintessential tourism event, that of the festival, which now intervenes in daily life in all manner of ways. In this commentary, we present a reflective commentary on recent scholarship that advocates for more rigour in festival studies, with greater theory development and testing within the festival context, and how this work is suggestive of future directions for festival research. We present several areas that are ripe for further research, particularly given the tumultuous nature of the world we are living in, such as the challenges of climate change and how we might socialise in a post-Covid world. Much has changed in the 20 years since the inception of Tourist Studies, but festivals remain resilient – they will re-emerge in future, perhaps not unscathed but with a renewed sense of purpose.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Saalfeld ◽  
Brooke L. Hill ◽  
Christine M. Hunter ◽  
Charles J. Frost ◽  
Richard B. Lanctot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Adequate Food

AbstractClimate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Ŝi = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02–0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Ŝi = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48–0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

scholarly journals Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 648
Author(s):  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Vladimir Platonov ◽  
Alexander Kislov ◽  
Ksenia Silvestrova ◽  
Igor Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Significant Linear Trend ◽  
The Impact

The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.

scholarly journals Climate Change in the Arctic—The Need for a Broader Gender Perspective in Data Collection

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 628
Author(s):  
Arja Rautio ◽  
Natalia Kukarenko ◽  
Lena Maria Nilsson ◽  
Birgitta Evengard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gender Analysis ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Disaggregated Data

Climate change in the Arctic affects both environmental, animal, and human health, as well as human wellbeing and societal development. Women and men, and girls and boys are affected differently. Sex-disaggregated data collection is increasingly carried out as a routine in human health research and in healthcare analysis. This study involved a literature review and used a case study design to analyze gender differences in the roles and responsibilities of men and women residing in the Arctic. The theoretical background for gender-analysis is here described together with examples from the Russian Arctic and a literature search. We conclude that a broader gender-analysis of sex-disaggregated data followed by actions is a question of human rights and also of economic benefits for societies at large and of the quality of services as in the health care.

scholarly journals How Does the Arctic Council Support Conservation of Arctic Biodiversity?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5042
Author(s):  
Tom Barry ◽  
Brynhildur Daviðsdóttir ◽  
Níels Einarsson ◽  
Oran R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Council ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Conflicting Demands ◽  
Agent Of Change ◽  
Insight Into

The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among Arctic states, indigenous communities, and peoples on issues of common importance. The rising geo-political importance of the Arctic and the onset of climate change has resulted in the Council becoming a focus of increasing interest from both inside and beyond the Arctic. This has resulted in new demands placed on the Council, attracting an increasing number of participants, and instigating a period of transformation as Arctic states work to find a way to balance conflicting demands to improve the Council’s effectiveness and take care of national interests. This paper considers whether, during this time of change, the Council is having an impact on the issues it was formed to address, i.e., environmental protection and sustainable development. To provide answers, it looks at how the Council reports on and evaluates progress towards the implementation of recommendations it makes regarding biodiversity, how it identifies where activities have had impacts and uncovers the mechanisms through which they were successful, to provide an insight into how the Arctic Council can be an agent of change.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 3337-3367 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
J. Brandt ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
L. M. Frohn ◽  
C. Geels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Oh Radicals ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s) are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe. The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations) are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively. The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by the DEHM model. This leads to an increase in the O3 production and together with an increase in water vapor to an increase in the number of free OH radicals. Furthermore this increase in the number of OH radicals contributes to a significant change in the typical life time of many species, since OH are participating in a large number of chemical reactions. It is e.g. found that more SO42− will be present in the future over the already polluted areas and this increase can be explained by an enhanced conversion of SO2 to SO42−.

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