scholarly journals Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 648
Author(s):  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Vladimir Platonov ◽  
Alexander Kislov ◽  
Ksenia Silvestrova ◽  
Igor Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Significant Linear Trend ◽  
The Impact

The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.

scholarly journals Using RADARSAT to Identify Sea Ice Ridges and their Implications for Shipping in Canada’s Hudson Strait

ARCTIC ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Mussells ◽  
Jackie Dawson ◽  
Stephen Howell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Ridge Count ◽  
Significant Linear Trend ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
A Site ◽  
Annual Scale

Ridges in sea ice and the convergent forces that form them are a serious hazard to ships traveling in the Arctic, but few studies have examined ridge distribution at a basin level in the Canadian Arctic. The Hudson Strait, which connects Hudson Bay and the North Atlantic, is a site of ongoing winter shipping where vessels frequently encounter pressured ice conditions and ridging. Here, RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2 ScanSAR Wide images were used to identify ridges manually in a winter shipping corridor in the Hudson Strait for the period 1997 to 2012. Ridge count peaked in the month of March. No significant linear trend in the number of ridges was identified on either a monthly or annual scale, which is the result of great variability from year to year. However, spatial patterns of ridging distribution were evident: ridging occurred primarily in the eastern and western sectors of the study area, both in the region between Charles Island and the Quebec coastline and at the eastern entrance to the Hudson Strait. Seasonal sea level pressure (SLP) patterns from years of high and low ridge density were compared, but consistent correlations between SLP and ridge density were not found. The impacts of one-time storm events on ridge densities were also investigated. More analysis is needed to understand the factors influencing ridge density in the Hudson Strait.

scholarly journals Wave climate and storm activity in the Kara sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Myslenkov ◽  
Vladimir Platonov ◽  
Alexander Kislov ◽  
Ksenia Silvestrova ◽  
Igor Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Storm Waves ◽  
Ice Conditions

Abstract. Recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII is used to reconstruct wind wave fields on an unstructured grid with a spatial resolution of 15–20 km for the period from 1979 to 2017. The mean and maximum wave heights, wavelengths and periods are calculated. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. The seasonal variability of the wave parameters is analyzed. The interannual variability of storm waves recurrence with different thresholds (from 3 to 7 m) was calculated. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. A double growth in the reccurence was observed for cases with an SWH more than 3–5 m from 1979 to 2017. The local maximum of the storm waves more than 3–4 m was observed in 1995, and the minimum in 1998. The maximum value (four cases) of the number of storms with an SWH threshold 7 m is registered in 2016. The frequency of wind speeds and ice conditions contributing to the storm waves formation were analyzed. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. If the ice cover decreases in the southern part of the sea that leads to the increase of the number of events only with SWH threshold more than 3–4 m. If in the entire sea the ice cover decreases that leads already to increase of the extreme storms. The frequency of strong and long-term winds has high interannual variability and a weak positive trend. The analysis of distribution functions of the storm events with an SWH more than 3 m was carried out. Six different sectors of the Kara Sea were analyzed to reveal spatial differences. A comparison of the different distribution laws showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. Up to 99 % of the points are described by this distribution. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6–7 m deviate from the distribution, and their probability is approximately twice as less as that predicted by the Pareto distribution. Presumably, this deviation is caused by the combined impact of rare wind speed frequencies and anomalies of the sea ice conditions.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Early Holocene ocean conditions off the Zachariæ Isstrøm, Northeast Greenland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Davies ◽  
Anders Møller Mathiasen ◽  
Kristiane Kristensen ◽  
Christof Pearce ◽  
Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
The Impact

<p>The polar regions exhibit some of the most visible signs of climate change globally; annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has quadrupled in recent decades, from 51 ± 65 Gt yr<sup>−1</sup> (1992-2001) to 211 ± 37 Gt yr<sup>−1</sup> (2002-2011). This can partly be attributed to the widespread retreat and speed-up of marine-terminating glaciers. The Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI) is an outlet glacier of the Northeast Greenland Ice Steam (NEGIS), one of the largest ice streams of the GrIS (700km), draining approximately 12% of the ice sheet interior. Observations show that the ZI began accelerating in 2000, resulting in the collapse of the floating ice shelf between 2002 and 2003. By 2014, the ice shelf extended over an area of 52km<sup>2</sup>, a 95% decrease in area since 2002, where it extended over 1040km<sup>2</sup>. Paleo-reconstructions provide an opportunity to extend observational records in order to understand the oceanic and climatic processes governing the position of the grounding zone of marine terminating glaciers and the extent of floating ice shelves. Such datasets are thus necessary if we are to constrain the impact of future climate change projections on the Arctic cryosphere.</p><p>A multi-proxy approach, involving grain size, geochemical, foraminiferal and sedimentary analysis was applied to marine sediment core DA17-NG-ST8-92G, collected offshore of the ZI, on  the Northeast Greenland Shelf. The aim was to reconstruct changes in the extent of the ZI and the palaeoceanographic conditions throughout the Early to Mid Holocene (c.a. 12,500-5,000 cal. yrs. BP). Evidence from the analysis of these datasets indicates that whilst there has been no grounded ice at the site over the last 12,500 years, the ice shelf of the ZI extended as a floating ice shelf over the site between 12,500 and 9,200 cal. yrs. BP, with the grounding line further inland from our study site. This was followed by a retreat in the ice shelf extent during the Holocene Thermal Maximum; this was likely to have been governed, in part, by basal melting driven by Atlantic Water (AW) recirculated from Svalbard or from the Arctic Ocean. Evidence from benthic foraminifera suggest that there was a shift from the dominance of AW to Polar Water at around 7,500 cal. yrs. BP, although the ice shelf did not expand again despite of this cooling of subsurface waters.</p>

scholarly journals Regional variability of acidification in the Arctic: a sea of contrasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. E. Popova ◽  
A. Yool ◽  
Y. Aksenov ◽  
A. C. Coward ◽  
T. R. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Canadian Arctic Archipelago ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is a region that is particularly vulnerable to the impact of ocean acidification driven by rising atmospheric CO2, with potentially negative consequences for calcifying organisms such as coccolithophorids and foraminiferans. In this study, we use an ocean-only general circulation model, with embedded biogeochemistry and a comprehensive description of the ocean carbon cycle, to study the response of pH and saturation states of calcite and aragonite to rising atmospheric pCO2 and changing climate in the Arctic Ocean. Particular attention is paid to the strong regional variability within the Arctic, and, for comparison, simulation results are contrasted with those for the global ocean. Simulations were run to year 2099 using the RCP8.5 (an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenario with the highest concentrations of atmospheric CO2). The separate impacts of the direct increase in atmospheric CO2 and indirect effects via impact of climate change (changing temperature, stratification, primary production and freshwater fluxes) were examined by undertaking two simulations, one with the full system and the other in which atmospheric CO2 was prevented from increasing beyond its preindustrial level (year 1860). Results indicate that the impact of climate change, and spatial heterogeneity thereof, plays a strong role in the declines in pH and carbonate saturation (Ω) seen in the Arctic. The central Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay show greatest rates of acidification and Ω decline as a result of melting sea ice. In contrast, areas affected by Atlantic inflow including the Greenland Sea and outer shelves of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas, had minimal decreases in pH and Ω because diminishing ice cover led to greater vertical mixing and primary production. As a consequence, the projected onset of undersaturation in respect to aragonite is highly variable regionally within the Arctic, occurring during the decade of 2000–2010 in the Siberian shelves and Canadian Arctic Archipelago, but as late as the 2080s in the Barents and Norwegian seas. We conclude that, for future projections of acidification and carbonate saturation state in the Arctic, regional variability is significant and needs to be adequately resolved, with particular emphasis on reliable projections of the rates of retreat of the sea ice, which are a major source of uncertainty.

Arctic Plant Responses to Climate Warming: It’s Not all about Nitrogen

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanna Masud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Plant Responses ◽  
Experimental Warming ◽  
Nutrient Pools ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Low Arctic ◽  
Total Plant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Deciduous Shrub

Climate change is increasing air and soil temperatures in the Arctic, likely enhancing microbial activity. Consequently, increased decomposition rates of soil organic matter and increasing nutrient supply to tundra vegetation can be expected. The impacts of experimental warming and fertilization on growth have been investigated by studying the availability of macronutrients such as N, P and C. However, other   macronutrients such as S, Ca, Mg, K, and micronutrients such as Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn have received little research attention to determine their function, biogeochemical cycling, and effect on vegetation growth in response to warming. This study investigated the impact of experimental warming responses on availability and accumulation of the latter nutrients in the principal plant species located in mesic birch hummock tundra near Daring Lake, Northwest Territories in the Canadian Low Arctic Tundra. Plants were sampled in 2011 from the replicated summer greenhouse treatment that was established in 2004. In response to warming, the principal evergreen shrub (Rhododendron) had the most enhanced growth, followed by the deciduous shrub (Birch). Since the total plant pools of these nutrients were also enhanced in the evergreen, my results strongly suggest that availability of these nutrients was not limiting growth. By contrast, the birch total plant nutrient pools were not enhanced and significant decreases in Mg, S, and K leaf concentrations were observed, suggesting that these elements may be limiting birch growth. Together, our results suggest that plant growth response to climate change in the low Arctic may depend on previously overlooked nutrient elements, and that deciduous shrub growth may be constrained relative to the evergreen response as the arctic climate warms.

scholarly journals Variations in snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet based on passive-microwave measurements

1995 ◽  
Vol 41 (137) ◽  
pp. 51-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Mote ◽  
Mark R. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ablation Rate ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Microwave Emission ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Emission Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Microwave Data

AbstractA simple microwave-emission model is used to simulate 37 GHz brightness temperatures associated with snowpack-melt conditions for locations across the Greenland ice sheet. The simulated values are utilized as threshold values and compared to daily, gridded SMMR and SSM/I passive-microwave data, in order to reveal regions experiencing melt. The spatial extent of the area classified as melting is examined on a daily, monthly and seasonal (May-August) basis for 1979–91. The typical seasonal cycle of melt coverage shows melt beginning in late April, a rapid increase in the melting area from mid-May to mid-July, a rapid decrease in melt extent from late July through mid-August, and cessation of melt in late September. Seasonal averages of the daily melt extents demonstrate an apparent increase in melt coverage over the 13 year period of approximately 3.8% annually (significant at the 95% confidence interval). This increase is dominated by statistically significant positive trends in melt coverage during July and August in the west and southwest of the ice sheet. We find that a linear correlation between microwave-derived melt extent and a surface measure of ablation rate is significant in June and July but not August, so caution must be exercised in using the microwave-derived melt extents in August. Nevertheless, knowledge of the variability of snowpack melt on the Greenland ice sheet as derived from microwave data should prove useful in detecting climate change in the Arctic and examining the impact of climate change on the ice sheet.

scholarly journals Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host–parasite systems

2005 ◽  
Vol 272 (1581) ◽  
pp. 2571-2576 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.J Kutz ◽  
E.P Hoberg ◽  
L Polley ◽  
E.J Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parasitic Nematode ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
Domestic Animals ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Infectious Agents ◽  
Infection Pressure ◽  
Host Parasite ◽  
The Impact

Global climate change is altering the ecology of infectious agents and driving the emergence of disease in people, domestic animals, and wildlife. We present a novel, empirically based, predictive model for the impact of climate warming on development rates and availability of an important parasitic nematode of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Using this model, we show that warming in the Arctic may have already radically altered the transmission dynamics of this parasite, escalating infection pressure for muskoxen, and that this trend is expected to continue. This work establishes a foundation for understanding responses to climate change of other host–parasite systems, in the Arctic and globally.

scholarly journals Progress in Climate–Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment in Nigeria

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 190
Author(s):  
Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke ◽  
Chukwuemeka Chinonso Emenekwe ◽  
Jane Onuabuchi Munonye ◽  
Chinyere Augusta Nwajiuba ◽  
Uwazie Iyke Uwazie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
The Impact

An in-depth understanding of the impact of vulnerability on livelihoods and food security is important in deploying effective adaptation actions. The Nigerian agricultural sector is dominated by rainfed and non-homogenous smallholder farming systems. A number of climate change risk studies have emerged in the last decade. However, little attention has been given to vulnerability assessments and the operationalization of vulnerability. To highlight this shortcoming, this study systematically reviewed climate-change-focused vulnerability assessments in the agricultural sector by evaluating (1) variation in climate variables in Nigeria over time; (2) the state of climate change vulnerability assessment in Nigerian agriculture; (3) the theoretical foundations, operationalization approaches, and frameworks of vulnerability assessments in Nigeria; (4) the methods currently used in vulnerability assessments; and (5) lessons learned from the vulnerability studies. We used a linear trend of climatic data spanning over a period of 56 years (1961–2016) obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom, along with a systematic review of literature to achieve the objectives. The analysis indicates a significant and positive correlation between temperature and time in all major agro-ecological zones. For precipitation, we found a non-significant correlation between precipitation in the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea Savanna zones with time, while the other zones recorded positive but significant associations between precipitation and time. The systematic review findings indicate no clear progress in publications focused specifically on vulnerability assessments in the Nigerian agricultural sector. There has been progress recently in applying frameworks and methods. However, there are important issues that require addressing in vulnerability assessments, including low consideration for indigenous knowledge and experience, unclear operationalization of vulnerability, non-standardization of vulnerability measures, and inadequacy of current assessments supporting decision making.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 6549-6559 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Hansen ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
C. Geels ◽  
J. D. Silver ◽  
J. Brandt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Pollutants ◽  
Persistent Organic Pollutants ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Environmental Concentrations ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990–2000) and future (2090–2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on the transport of POPs to the Arctic is moderate relative to the effect of proposed changes in emissions, which is confirmed in this study. However, the model studies do not agree on whether climate change acts to reduce or increase environmental concentrations of POPs in the Arctic, and further work is needed to resolve this matter.

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