Global Economic Uncertainty and the U.S. Equity Returns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar ◽  
Yuriy Kitsul ◽  
Jamil A. Rahman ◽  
Beth Anne Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Equity Returns ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
The U.S

Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1737-1780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Brogaard ◽  
Lili Dai ◽  
Phong T H Ngo ◽  
Bohui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Equity Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Published Paper ◽  
The U.S

Abstract We show that global political uncertainty, measured by the U.S. election cycle, on average, leads to a fall in equity returns in fifty non-U.S. countries. At the same time, market volatilities rise, local currencies depreciate, and sovereign bond returns increase. The effect of global political uncertainty on equity prices increases with the level of uncertainty in U.S. election outcomes and a country’s equity market exposure to foreign investors, but does not vary with the country’s international trade exposure. These findings suggest that global political uncertainty increases investors’ aggregate risk aversion, leading to a flight to safety.(JEL F30, F36, G12, G15, G18) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals The influence of U.S. equity returns on Asian-Pacific equity markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-60
Author(s):  
Earl D. Benson ◽  
Sophie X. Kong
Keyword(s):  
Equity Markets ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Asian Pacific ◽  
Daily Returns ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Market Changes

This paper examines monthly and daily returns in eleven Asian-Pacific equity markets and the U.S. market, showing that the Asian-Pacific markets systematically follow the returns in the U.S. market (S&P 500 index). For investment managers, the important findings include the fact that each Asian-Pacific market moves differently in response to U.S. market changes over a given time period and the response of most of these markets to changes in the U.S. market is not stable over time. Therefore, in their attempt to diversify a portfolio using individual Asian-Pacific country equities, past correlations and covariances are not necessarily a good predictor of future values, especially for the less developed countries. On average, more developed markets react more strongly to U.S. market changes than do the less developed markets. All markets exhibit asymmetries relative to the U.S. market, where reactions are stronger following down-days than following up-days. Finally, the tests suggest that the Asian-Pacific markets have little or no influence on U.S. market returns.

scholarly journals Common Mental Disorders and Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the U.S.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260726
Author(s):  
Wing Wah Tham ◽  
Elvira Sojli ◽  
Richard Bryant ◽  
Michael McAleer
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Mental Disorders ◽  
Physical Health ◽  
Mental Distress ◽  
Common Mental Disorders ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Financial Uncertainty ◽  
The U.S

Mental health disorders represent an enormous cost to society, are related to economic outcomes, and have increased markedly since the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic activity contracted dramatically on a global scale in 2020, representing the worst crisis since the Great Depression. This study used the COVID Impact Survey to provide insights on the interactions of mental illness and economic uncertainty during COVID-19. We used a probability-based panel survey, COVID Impact Survey, conducted in the U.S. over three waves in the period April-June 2020. The survey covered individual information on employment, economic and financial uncertainty, mental and physical health, as well as other demographic information. The prevalence of moderate mental distress was measured using a Psychological Distress Scale, a 5-item scale that is scored on a 4-point scale (total range: 0–15). The mental distress effect of employment, economic, and financial uncertainty, was assessed in a logit regression analysis conditioning for demographic and health information. It is found that employment, health coverage, social security, and food provision uncertainty are additional stressors for mental health. These economic factors work in addition to demographic effects, where groups who display increased risk for psychological distress include: women, Hispanics, and those in poor physical health. A decrease in employment and increases in economic uncertainty are associated with a doubling of common mental disorders. The population-representative survey evidence presented strongly suggests that economic policies which support employment (e.g., job keeping, job search support, stimulus spending) provide not only economic security but also constitute a major health intervention. Moving forward, the economic uncertainty effect ought to be reflected in community level intervention and prevention efforts, which should include strengthening economic support to reduce financial and economic strain.

scholarly journals Empirical Examination on the Drivers of the U.S. Equity Returns in the During the COVID-19 Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Wang ◽  
Mo Bai ◽  
Mai Huang
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Least Angle Regression ◽  
The U.S

This study investigates the drivers of the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 equity returns during the COVID-19 crisis era. The paper considers various determinants of the equity returns from December 31, 2019, to February 19, 2021. It is observed that the United States Dollar (USD) and the volatility indices (VIX) negatively affect the S&P 500 equity returns. However, the newspaper-based infectious disease “equity market volatility tracker” is positively associated with the stock market returns. These results are robust to consider both the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the least angle regression (LARS) estimators.

scholarly journals Diversification In An Emerging Market: A Closer Look At The Indian Stock Market

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayen B. Patel
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The U.S

We find that the Indian stock market generated returns comparable to those of the U.S. stock market during the period January 1991 to July 2005. We also find that the Indian stock market produced returns substantially higher than U.S. equity returns during various sub-periods when the U.S. market declined. We demonstrate that the Indian stock market presents important return and diversification benefits to U.S. investors.

Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy

FEDS Notes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (2463) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan M. Londono ◽  
◽  
Sai Ma ◽  
Beth Anne Wilson ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU)--based on the predictability of near-term economic performance--for the major advanced economies.

scholarly journals COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248072
Author(s):  
Lawrence M. Berger ◽  
Giulia Ferrari ◽  
Marion Leturcq ◽  
Lidia Panico ◽  
Anne Solaz
Keyword(s):  
Family Formation ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Family Demography ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Cross National

The spread of COVID-19 and resulting local and national lockdowns have a host of potential consequences for demographic trends. While impacts on mortality and, to some extent, short-term migration flows are beginning to be documented, it is too early to measure actual consequences for family demography. To gain insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for words related to fertility, relationship formation, and relationship dissolution changed following lockdowns compared to average, pre-lockdown levels in Europe and the United States. Because lockdowns were not widely anticipated or simultaneous in timing or intensity, we exploit variability over time and between countries (and U.S. states). We use a panel event-study design and difference-in-differences methods, and account for seasonal trends and average country-level (or state-level) differences in searches. We find statistically significant impacts of lockdown timing on changes in searches for terms such as wedding and those related to condom use, emergency contraception, pregnancy tests, and abortion, but little evidence of changes in searches related to fertility. Impacts for union formation and dissolution tended to only be statistically significant at the start of a lockdown with a return to average-levels about 2 to 3 months after lockdown initiation, particularly in Europe. Compared to Europe, returns to average search levels were less evident for the U.S., even 2 to 3 months after lockdowns were introduced. This may be due to the fact, in the U.S., health and social policy responses were less demarcated than in Europe, such that economic uncertainty was likely of larger magnitude. Such pandemic-related economic uncertainty may therefore have the potential to slightly increase already existing polarization in family formation behaviours in the U.S. Alongside contributing to the wider literature on economic uncertainty and family behaviors, this paper also proposes strategies for efficient use of Google Trends data, such as making relative comparisons and testing sensitivity to outliers, and provides a template and cautions for their use in demographic research when actual demographic trends data are not yet available.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document