Generalizations and Reference Classes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Pardo ◽  
Ronald Jay Allen
Keyword(s):  
Reference Classes

Which reference class is evoked?

1996 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-35
Author(s):  
Craig R. M. McKenzie ◽  
Jack B. Soll
Keyword(s):  
Search Space ◽  
Reference Class ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Reference Classes ◽  
Choose People

AbstractAny instance (i.e., event, behavior, trait) belongs to infinitely many reference classes, hence there are infinitely many base rates from which to choose. People clearly do not entertain all possible reference classes, however, so something must be limiting the search space. We suggest some possible mechanisms that determine which reference class is evoked for the purpose of judgment and decision.

Reichenbach, reference classes, and single case ?probabilities?

Synthese ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Single Case ◽  
Reference Classes

Colour categorization and the space between perception and language

1997 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Dedrick
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Reference Classes

We need to reconsider and reconceive the path that will take us from innate perceptual saliencies to basic (and perhaps other) colour language. There is a space between the perceptual and the linguistic levels that needs to be filled by an account of the rules that people use to generate relatively stable reference classes in a social context.

On the preference for more specific reference classes

Synthese ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 194 (6) ◽  
pp. 2025-2051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Thorn
Keyword(s):  
Specific Reference ◽  
Reference Classes

scholarly journals REFERENCE CLASSES AND MULTIPLE INHERITANCES

1995 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
PEI WANG
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Reference Class ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Class A ◽  
Reasoning System ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Reference Class Problem ◽  
Reference Classes ◽  
Better Than

The reference class problem in probability theory and the multiple inheritances (extensions) problem in non-monotonic logics are special cases of conflicting beliefs. One popular solution accepted in the two domains is the specificity principle. By analyzing an example, several factors beyond specificity are found to be relevant to the priority of a reference class. A new approach, Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), is discussed, where these factors are all taken into account. It is argued that the solution provided by NARS is better than the solutions provided by probability theory and non-monotonic logics.

A Stage-Theoretical Account of Diachronic Identity

Metaphysica ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-272
Author(s):  
H. E. Baber
Keyword(s):  
Reference Class ◽  
Ordinary Object ◽  
Ordinary Objects ◽  
Theoretical Account ◽  
Reference Classes

Abstract Diachronic identity is understood as an identity holding between something existing at one time and something existing at another time. On the stage view, however, ordinary objects are instantaneous stages that do not exist at other times so diachronic identity is, at best, problematic. On account proposed here a name does not, as Sider and others suggest, denote a stage concurrent with its utterance. Rather, at any time, t, a name of an ordinary object designates a stage-at-t as its primary referent and refers indeterminately over it and all and only those stages counterpart-related to it—its reference class at t. At any time, t, a at t1 is the same object as b at t2 iff for every stage x counterpart-related to a’s stage-at t and every stage y counterpart-related to b’s stage-at-t, x=y. Diachronic identity statements, therefore, assert strict identities—between concurrent stages. Ordinarily names select the same reference classes at every time so, in ordinary cases, identity statements are not ‘occasional’. In fission cases names select different reference classes at different times. Where a becomes b and c, at any pre-fission time ‘a’, ‘b’, and ‘c’ have same the primary referent and so select the same reference class—therefore, before fission b is the same object as c. At any post-fission time ‘b’ and ‘c’ select different reference classes—so after fission b is not the same object as c. Identity is not occasional but, in extraordinary cases, identity statements are—because reference is.

scholarly journals Personalizing Evidence for Shoulder Fracture Patients Using an Extended Instrumental Variable Causal Forest Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Brooks ◽  
Cole G. Chapman ◽  
Sarah Floyd ◽  
Brian K. Chen ◽  
Charles A. Thigpen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Day Treatment ◽  
Early Surgery ◽  
Fee For Service ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries ◽  
Reference Class ◽  
Shoulder Fracture ◽  
Population Classification ◽  
Reference Classes ◽  
Surgery Rates

Objective: To assess the ability of an extended Instrumental Variable Causal Forest Algorithm (IV-CFA) to provide personalized evidence of early surgery effects on benefits and detriments for elderly shoulder fracture patients. Data Sources/Study Setting: Population of 72,751 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with proximal humerus fractures (PHFs) in 2011 who survived a 60-day treatment window after an index PHF and were continuously Medicare fee-for-service eligible over the period 12 months prior to index to the minimum of 12 months after index or death. Study Design: IV-CFA estimated early surgery effects on both beneficial and detrimental outcomes for each patient in the study population. Classification and regression trees (CART) were applied to these estimates to create patient reference classes. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators were applied to patients in each reference class to scrutinize the estimates relative to the known 2SLS properties. Principal Findings: This approach uncovered distinct reference classes of elderly PHF patients with respect to early surgery effects on benefit and detriment. Older, frailer patients with more comorbidities, and lower utilizers of healthcare were less likely to gain benefit and more likely to have detriment from early surgery. Reference classes were characterized by the appropriateness of early surgery rates with respect to benefit and detriment. Conclusions: Extended IV-CFA provides an illuminating method to uncover reference classes of patients based on treatment effects using observational data with a strong instrumental variable. This study isolated reference classes of new PHF patients in which changes in early surgery rates would improve patient outcomes. The inability to measure fracture complexity in Medicare claims means providers will need to discuss the appropriateness of these estimates to patients within a reference class in context of this missing information.

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