scholarly journals Do Non-Performing Loans Matter for Bank Lending and the Business Cycle in Euro Area Countries?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Huljak ◽  
Reiner Martin ◽  
Diego Moccero ◽  
Cosimo Pancaro
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
The Business Cycle

Are Bank Credit Standards Affected by the Business Cycle? Evidence from the Euro Area

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos ◽  
Stylianos Giannoulakis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Credit Standards

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the link between bank credit standards (CS hereafter) and business cycle fluctuations. This is the first empirical study which attempts to examine whether business cycle affects bank CS. We use quarterly survey-data on CS taken from the Bank Lending Survey from 2003Q1 to 2016Q1, for 14 Euro-area countries. We find that business cycle and GDP growth trend exert a negative influence on CS, and thus business cycle and trend are two major drivers of the tightening or easing of the CS. We also find that the two components (cyclical and trend) of the real GDP decomposition affect in a symmetric way CS. Moreover, symmetry of impacts was found between the CS and the business cycle and trend for large vs. small firms. Our findings could be helpful for both the European bank regulatory authorities and for the banks’ loan officers when they are designing macroprudential policies. JEL classifications: E30, E32, E44, G21 Keywords: credit standards, business cycle, bank lending survey, loan supply

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

scholarly journals The interdependence of financial risk and sovereign risk along the business cycle in the Euro Area

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Κωνσταντίνος Τσουκαλάς
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
The Business Cycle

Αναπτύσσουμε ένα νεο-κεϋνσιανό (newKeynesian - ΝΚ) στοχαστικό δυναμικό μοντέλο γενικής ισορροπίας (dynamicstochasticgeneralequilibrium – DGSE) για να μελετήσουμε το ρόλο που έχει στον οικονομικό κύκλο η αλληλεξάρτηση μεταξύ της χρηματοοικονομικής διαμεσολάβησης (financial intermediation) και του κρατικού κινδύνου (sovereignrisk). Το μοντέλο μας συνθέτει τις κυρίαρχες σύγχρονες προσεγγίσεις σε δύο κατευθύνσεις της βιβλιογραφίας: των χρηματοοικονομικών τριβών (financial frictions) και του κινδύνου κρατικής πτώχευσης (sovereigndefault). Συγκεκριμένα, μοντελοποιούμε τις χρηματοοικονομικέςτριβές σύμφωνα με τους Bernanke κ.ά. (1999) και την πιθανότητα της κρατικής πτώχευσης χρησιμοποιώντας την ιδέα του στοχαστικού δημοσιονομικού ορίου των Bi και Traum (2012). Καταλήγουμε δε ότι, εφόσον υπάρχουν αλληλεπιδράσεις χρηματοοικονομικής διαμεσολάβησης και κρατικού κινδύνου, τότε μία αύξηση στον κίνδυνο της κεφαλαιακής επένδυσης (διαταραχή του επιπέδου κινδύνου), η οποία πηγάζει από τον χρηματοπιστωτικό τομέα, έχει ως αποτέλεσμα μία σημαντικά βαθύτερη ύφεση. Η ύφεση εξαρτάται σημαντικά από την προκυκλική/αντικυκλική πολιτική της κυβέρνησης σχετικά με τα απαιτούμενα κεφάλαια που διακρατεί για το πιθανό κόστος της διάσωσης του χρηματοπιστωτικού τομέα. Το παραπάνω αποτέλεσμα οδηγεί στα παρακάτω συμπεράσματα οικονομικής πολιτικής. Οι ευρωπαϊκές πολιτικές για τη διάσωση του χρηματοοικονομικού συστήματος έχουν χειροτερέψει την ύφεση. Εάν δεν υπάρξει κεντρικός ευρωπαϊκός μηχανισμός στα πλαίσια του EFSF/ESM που να χρηματοδοτεί απευθείας το τραπεζικό σύστημα το πρόβλημα θα εξακολουθεί να υπάρχει. Ο πολλαπλασιαστής των κρατικών δαπανών είναι μικρότερος όταν υπάρχει κρατικός κίνδυνος ευνοώντας πολιτικές οικονομικής λιτότητας.

Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 278-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Valle e Azevedo ◽  
Siem Jan Koopman ◽  
António Rua
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The Business Cycle

Is commercial bank lending in South Africa procyclical?

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-226
Author(s):  
Foluso Abioye Akinsola ◽  
Sylvanus Ikhide
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.Design/methodology/approachThe model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.FindingsResults from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.Research limitations/implicationsThe impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.Originality/valueMost research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

scholarly journals PROCYCLICALITY AND BANK LENDING BEHAVIOR IN INDONESIA: THE CASE OF DUAL BANKING SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rizky Prima Sakti ◽  
Mohamed Zulkhibri
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Financing Behavior ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Lending Behavior

It is widely suggested in the literature that procyclicality of bank lending behavior may lead to financial instability. This study examines bank-lending channel over the business cycle for Indonesian dual banking system by ascertaining to what extent Islamic banks have a role in the credit smoothing. In this context, we utilize Indonesian dual banking system unbalanced panel data for the period 2001-2015. By employing two-step dynamic GMM estimators, the study shows that the bank lending behaviour are procyclical. However, when we categorize the lending behaviour into conventional and Islamic banks, the cyclicality of bank lending affects only for conventional banks. As for the Islamic banks, the business cycle does not affect their financing decision. Specifically, large Islamic banks are more counter-cyclical in their financing behavior than small and medium size Islamic banks. Robustness tests using different measures of loans and model specifications confirm the results that Islamic bank is more stable and less procyclical in the case of Indonesia banking system.

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