Обзор методов выбора модели на основе информационных критериев (Overview of Model Selection Methods Based on Information Criteria)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Skrobotov
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Selection Methods

scholarly journals Learning Coefficient of Vandermonde Matrix-Type Singularities in Model Selection

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 561
Author(s):  
Miki Aoyagi
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Learning Systems ◽  
Vandermonde Matrix ◽  
Selection Methods ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Matrix Type ◽  
Log Canonical Threshold ◽  
Log Canonical ◽  
Blowing Up

In recent years, selecting appropriate learning models has become more important with the increased need to analyze learning systems, and many model selection methods have been developed. The learning coefficient in Bayesian estimation, which serves to measure the learning efficiency in singular learning models, has an important role in several information criteria. The learning coefficient in regular models is known as the dimension of the parameter space over two, while that in singular models is smaller and varies in learning models. The learning coefficient is known mathematically as the log canonical threshold. In this paper, we provide a new rational blowing-up method for obtaining these coefficients. In the application to Vandermonde matrix-type singularities, we show the efficiency of such methods.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study of the Lasso-type and Heuristic Model Selection Methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 233 (4) ◽  
pp. 526-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Savin
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Search Space ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Adaptive Lasso ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Selection Methods ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Study ◽  
Discrete Search ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Correlated Predictors

Summary This study presents a first comparative analysis of Lasso-type (Lasso, adaptive Lasso, elastic net) and heuristic subset selection methods. Although the Lasso has shown success in many situations, it has some limitations. In particular, inconsistent results are obtained for pairwise highly correlated predictors. An alternative to the Lasso is constituted by model selection based on information criteria (IC), which remain consistent in the situation mentioned. However, these criteria are hard to optimize due to a discrete search space. To overcome this problem, an optimization heuristic (Genetic Algorithm) is applied. To this end, results of a Monte-Carlo simulation study together with an application to an actual empirical problem are reported to illustrate the performance of the methods.

scholarly journals Model Selection Procedures in Bounds Test of Cointegration: Theoretical Comparison and Empirical Evidence

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waqar Badshah ◽  
Mehmet Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Akaike Information Criterion ◽  
Bayesian Information Criterion ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Bounds Test

Only unstructured single-path model selection techniques, i.e., Information Criteria, are used by Bounds test of cointegration for model selection. The aim of this paper was twofold; one was to evaluate the performance of these five routinely used information criteria {Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AICC), Schwarz/Bayesian Information Criterion (SIC/BIC), Schwarz/Bayesian Information Criterion Corrected (SICC/BICC), and Hannan and Quinn Information Criterion (HQC)} and three structured approaches (Forward Selection, Backward Elimination, and Stepwise) by assessing their size and power properties at different sample sizes based on Monte Carlo simulations, and second was the assessment of the same based on real economic data. The second aim was achieved by the evaluation of the long-run relationship between three pairs of macroeconomic variables, i.e., Energy Consumption and GDP, Oil Price and GDP, and Broad Money and GDP for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries using Bounds cointegration test. It was found that information criteria and structured procedures have the same powers for a sample size of 50 or greater. However, BICC and Stepwise are better at small sample sizes. In the light of simulation and real data results, a modified Bounds test with Stepwise model selection procedure may be used as it is strongly theoretically supported and avoids noise in the model selection process.

scholarly journals Using Model Selection Criteria to Choose the Number of Principal Components

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-461
Author(s):  
Stanley L. Sclove
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Bayesian Information Criterion ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Akaike's Information Criterion ◽  
Model Selection Criteria ◽  
Adequate Number ◽  
Number Of Principal Components

AbstractThe use of information criteria, especially AIC (Akaike’s information criterion) and BIC (Bayesian information criterion), for choosing an adequate number of principal components is illustrated.

scholarly journals Bayesian Model Averaging to Account for Model Uncertainty in Estimates of a Vaccine's Effectiveness

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos R Oliveira ◽  
Eugene D Shapiro ◽  
Daniel M Weinberger
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Selection Methods ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Negative Case ◽  
Confounder Selection ◽  
Control Study

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are often conducted after the introduction of new vaccines to ensure they provide protection in real-world settings. Although susceptible to confounding, the test-negative case-control study design is the most efficient method to assess VE post-licensure. Control of confounding is often needed during the analyses, which is most efficiently done through multivariable modeling. When a large number of potential confounders are being considered, it can be challenging to know which variables need to be included in the final model. This paper highlights the importance of considering model uncertainty by re-analyzing a Lyme VE study using several confounder selection methods. We propose an intuitive Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework for this task and compare the performance of BMA to that of traditional single-best-model-selection methods. We demonstrate how BMA can be advantageous in situations when there is uncertainty about model selection by systematically considering alternative models and increasing transparency.

A COMPARISON OF NEURAL NETWORK MODEL SELECTION STRATEGIES FOR THE PRICING OF S&P 500 STOCK INDEX OPTIONS

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (06) ◽  
pp. 1093-1113 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. THOMAIDIS ◽  
V. S. TZASTOUDIS ◽  
G. D. DOUNIAS
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Statistical Hypothesis ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Pruning Technique

This paper compares a number of neural network model selection approaches on the basis of pricing S&P 500 stock index options. For the choice of the optimal architecture of the neural network, we experiment with a “top-down” pruning technique as well as two “bottom-up” strategies that start with simple models and gradually complicate the architecture if data indicate so. We adopt methods that base model selection on statistical hypothesis testing and information criteria and we compare their performance to a simple heuristic pruning technique. In the first set of experiments, neural network models are employed to fit the entire options surface and in the second they are used as parts of a hybrid intelligence scheme that combines a neural network model with theoretical option-pricing hints.

scholarly journals Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (6) ◽  
pp. 1163-1179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kris V Parag ◽  
Christl A Donnelly
Keyword(s):  
Information Theory ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Adaptive Estimation ◽  
Minimum Description Length ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Incident Cases

Abstract Estimating temporal changes in a target population from phylogenetic or count data is an important problem in ecology and epidemiology. Reliable estimates can provide key insights into the climatic and biological drivers influencing the diversity or structure of that population and evidence hypotheses concerning its future growth or decline. In infectious disease applications, the individuals infected across an epidemic form the target population. The renewal model estimates the effective reproduction number, R, of the epidemic from counts of observed incident cases. The skyline model infers the effective population size, N, underlying a phylogeny of sequences sampled from that epidemic. Practically, R measures ongoing epidemic growth while N informs on historical caseload. While both models solve distinct problems, the reliability of their estimates depends on p-dimensional piecewise-constant functions. If p is misspecified, the model might underfit significant changes or overfit noise and promote a spurious understanding of the epidemic, which might misguide intervention policies or misinform forecasts. Surprisingly, no transparent yet principled approach for optimizing p exists. Usually, p is heuristically set, or obscurely controlled via complex algorithms. We present a computable and interpretable p-selection method based on the minimum description length (MDL) formalism of information theory. Unlike many standard model selection techniques, MDL accounts for the additional statistical complexity induced by how parameters interact. As a result, our method optimizes p so that R and N estimates properly and meaningfully adapt to available data. It also outperforms comparable Akaike and Bayesian information criteria on several classification problems, given minimal knowledge of the parameter space, and exposes statistical similarities among renewal, skyline, and other models in biology. Rigorous and interpretable model selection is necessary if trustworthy and justifiable conclusions are to be drawn from piecewise models. [Coalescent processes; epidemiology; information theory; model selection; phylodynamics; renewal models; skyline plots]

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