scholarly journals What Happened to the US Economy During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois R. Velde
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
1918 Influenza

scholarly journals The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1092-1125
Author(s):  
Diego R. Känzig
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
News Shock ◽  
The Us ◽  
Negative News ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production, and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the US economy: activity falls, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates, providing evidence for a strong channel operating through supply expectations. (JEL E31, E32, F31, Q35, Q38, Q43)

scholarly journals The 1918 Flu and COVID-19 Pandemics: Different Patients, Different Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Ross Cohen-Kristiansen ◽  
Roberto B. Pinheiro
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Virus ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Geographic Distributions ◽  
1918 Influenza

Many observers seeking historical precedent for COVID-19 draw on the 1918 influenza pandemic. In this Commentary, we highlight the differences between the 1918 flu and COVID-19 pandemics in terms of the most significantly affected populations. We also show key differences in the US economy in the late 1910s and now. Not only did the 1918 influenza virus primarily affect significantly younger cohorts, but the US economy’s industry and geographic distributions were notably different at the time compared to today’s. Consequently, caution is needed when using the 1918 influenza pandemic as a guideline for implementing and evaluating policy responses to COVID-19.

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