Distinguishing Epidemiological Curve of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Cases in Iraq: How It Does not Follow the Epidemic Curve of China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Jebril
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 2050152
Author(s):  
Sepehr Rafieenasab ◽  
Amir-Pouyan Zahiri ◽  
Ehsan Roohi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Immunization Rates ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

The growth and development of COVID-19 transmission have significantly attracted the attention of many societies, particularly Iran, that have been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In this study, the known “Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)” and some other mathematical approaches were used to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran’s official data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data. The results offer important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as the realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time and other characteristics. Besides, the effectiveness of infection and immunization rates to the number of infected people and epidemic end time are reported. Finally, different suggestions for decreasing victims are offered.

scholarly journals Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Movement Restriction ◽  
Illness Onset ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Restriction Policy ◽  
Time Of Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards.

scholarly journals Lockdown Contained the Spread of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in Huangshi City, China: Early Epidemiological Findings

2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 1454-1460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuo Ji ◽  
Hai-Lian Chen ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Ling-Ning Wu ◽  
Jie-Jia Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Adults And Children ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background To control the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), China sealed Wuhan on 23 January 2020 and soon expanded lockdown to 12 other cities in Hubei province. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics in one of the cities and highlight the effect of current implemented lockdown and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Methods We retrieved data of reported cases in Huangshi and Wuhan from publicly available disease databases. Local epidemiological data on suspected or confirmed cases in Huangshi were collected through field investigation. Epidemic curves were constructed with data on reported and observed cases. Results The accumulated confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatality in Huangshi were reported to be 1015 and 3.74%, respectively, compared with 50006 and 5.08% in Wuhan until 27 March 2020. Right after 24 January, the epidemic curve based on observed cases in Huangshi became flattened. And 1 February 2020 was identified as the “turning point” as the epidemic in Huangshi faded soon afterward. COVID-19 epidemic was characterized by mild cases in Huangshi, accounting for 82.66% of total cases. Moreover, 50 asymptomatic infections were identified in adults and children. In addition, we found confirmed cases in 19 familial clusters and 21 healthcare workers, supporting interhuman transmission. Conclusions Our study reported the temporal dynamics and characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Huangshi city, China, across the unprecedented intervention. Such new epidemiological inference might provide further guidance on current lockdown measures in high-risk cities and, subsequently, help improve public health intervention strategies against the pandemic on the country and global levels.

scholarly journals Initial Cluster of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in Wuhan, China Is Consistent with Substantial Human-to-Human Transmission

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Nishiura ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Keyword(s):  
Index Case ◽  
Observer Bias ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Initial Cluster ◽  
The Common ◽  
Exposure History ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Reanalysis of the epidemic curve from the initial cluster of cases with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in December 2019 indicates substantial human-to-human transmission. It is possible that the common exposure history at a seafood market in Wuhan originated from the human-to-human transmission events within the market, and the early, strong emphasis that market exposure indicated animal-to-human transmission was potentially the result of observer bias. To support the hypothesis of zoonotic origin of 2019-nCoV stemming from the Huanan seafood market, the index case should have had exposure history related to the market and the virus should have been identified from animals sold at the market. As these requirements remain unmet, zoonotic spillover at the market must not be overemphasized.

scholarly journals COVID-19 quarantine: Post-traumatic stress symptomatology among Lebanese citizens

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 666-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirna Fawaz ◽  
Ali Samaha
Keyword(s):  
Traumatic Stress ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Post Traumatic ◽  
The Times ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: In the light of the global spread of the novel Coronavirus known as COVID-19 and in the absence of an approved treatment and vaccination, Lebanon has taken national measures, among which was home quarantine of the general public in an attempt to flatten the epidemic curve and avoid flooding the health care system. Aim: This study aimed at evaluating the prevalence of post-traumatic stress symptomatology (PTSS) during the times of COVID-19 quarantine among Lebanese citizens. Method: This quantitative cross-sectional study recruited 950 civilians and is aimed at measuring the prevalence of PTSS among the Lebanese citizens at an interval of 2 weeks and 1 month of COVID-19 quarantine. Results: The results have shown that quarantine in Lebanon has started to give rise to Post-traumatic Stress Disorder symptomatology during the second week which was worsened in the fourth week of COVID-19 quarantine. Conclusion: COVID-19 quarantine has influenced the psychology of Lebanese citizens and might have persistent effects after the end of this phase which is recommended to be explored.

scholarly journals Flatten the Curve! Modeling SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Growth in Germany at the County Level

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Child Day Care ◽  
Curve Modeling ◽  
Before School ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractSince the emerging of the “novel coronavirus” SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. Being one of the most affected countries in Europe, in March 2020, Germany established several nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child day care facilities (March 16-18, 2020) as well as a full “lockdown” with forced social distancing and closures of “nonessential” services (March 23, 2020). The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had an impact on the declared aim of “flattening the curve”, referring to the epidemic curve of new infections. This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on daily infections (estimated from reported cases), aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection where infection rates begin to decrease and the curve flattens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the “lockdown” was established. In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the virus emerged. Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew show no significant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. Furthermore, mortality varies strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people belonging to the “risk group”, especially residents of retirement homes. The results raise the question whether social ban measures and curfews really contribute to curve flattening within a pandemic.

scholarly journals Flatten the Curve!

REGION ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-83
Author(s):  
Thomas Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Child Day Care ◽  
Voluntary Behavior ◽  
Before School ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. Being one of the most affected countries in Europe, in March 2020, Germany established several nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child day care facilities (March 16-18, 2020) as well as a full "lockdown" with forced social distancing and closures of "nonessential" services (March 23, 2020). The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had an impact on the declared aim of "flattening the curve", referring to the epidemic curve of new infections. This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based on daily infections (estimated from reported cases), aiming at determining the regional growth rate of infections and the point of inflection where infection rates begin to decrease and the curve flattens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the "lockdown" was established. In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the virus emerged. Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew show no significant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. Furthermore, mortality varies strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people belonging to the "risk group", especially residents of retirement homes. The decline of infections in absence of the "lockdown" measures could be explained by 1) earlier governmental interventions (e.g., cancellation of mass events, domestic quarantine), 2) voluntary behavior changes (e.g., physical distancing and hygiene), 3) seasonality of the virus, and 4) a rising but undiscovered level of immunity within the population. The results raise the question whether formal contact bans and curfews really contribute to curve flattening within a pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Measuring differences in individual precautionary behaviors among young adults

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asif Imtiaz ◽  
Noor Muhammad Khan ◽  
Md. Akram Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Postgraduate Education ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Good Mental Health ◽  
Precautionary Behavior ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAimThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has already hit Bangladesh, and various control measures have been taken to flatten the epidemic curve. Due to the current demographic distribution in Bangladesh, young adults are vital to the demography of the country. Therefore, their precautionary behavior is very important to ensure the success of preventive policies. This exploratory study examined the differences in the adoption of precautionary behaviors among young adults, and estimated and compared the predictors of precautionary behavior adoption among young adults living in the capital city Dhaka and a nearby district, Tangail.Subject and MethodsA total of 350 respondents from each district participated in the study. ANOVA and two-sample t-tests were utilized to detect differences in precautionary behavior across demographic groups of young adults, and quantile regression modeling was used to find the predictors of adopting precautionary behaviors and to compare these predictors between the two districts.ResultsIndividuals who had a postgraduate education and had good mental health tended to show better precautionary behaviors in Dhaka. Female respondents from Tangail who had no psychological distress took precautionary behaviors more often than their counterparts. However, no significant differences in the adoption of precautionary behaviors to prevent COVID-19 among young adults were found between the two districts. Better self-control ability, higher education and good mental health emerged as factors that significantly shaped the precautionary behaviors of young adults in this study.ConclusionHaving better knowledge did not ensure better adoption of precautionary behaviors among the participants. In effect, the government’s strong intervention to keep people at home and distant from each other and continued lockdown for several more days are probable immediate solutions. At the same time, the economic burden on lower-income people should be addressed.

scholarly journals Flattening the curve before it flattens us: hospital critical care capacity limits and mortality from novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) cases in US counties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles C. Branas ◽  
Andrew Rundle ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Wan Yang ◽  
Brendan G. Carr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medical System ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Counties ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Excess Deaths

ABSTRACTBackgroundAs of March 26, 2020, the United States had the highest number of confirmed cases of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) of any country in the world. Hospital critical care is perhaps the most important medical system choke point in terms of preventing deaths in a disaster scenario such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. We therefore brought together previously established disease modeling estimates of the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US under various social distancing contact reduction assumptions, with local estimates of the potential critical care surge response across all US counties.MethodsEstimates of spatio-temporal COVID-19 demand and medical system critical care supply were calculated for all continental US counties. These estimates were statistically summarized and mapped for US counties, regions and urban versus non-urban areas. Estimates of COVID-19 infections and patients needing critical care were calculated from March 24, 2020 to April 24, 2020 for three different estimated population levels – 0%, 25%, and 50% – of contact reduction (through actions such as social distancing). Multiple national public and private datasets were linked and harmonized in order to calculate county-level critical care bed counts that included currently available beds and those that could be made available under four surge response scenarios – very low, low, medium, and high – as well as excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care.ResultsSurge response scenarios ranged from a very low total supply 77,588 critical care beds to a high total of 278,850 critical care beds. Over the four week study period, excess deaths from inaccessible critical care ranged from 24,688 in the very low response scenario to 13,268 in the high response scenario. Northeastern and urban counties were projected to be most affected by excess deaths due to critical care shortages, and counties in New York, Colorado, and Virginia were projected to exceed their critical care bed limits despite high levels of COVID-19 contact reduction. Over the four week study period, an estimated 12,203-19,594 excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care could be averted through greater preventive actions such as travel restrictions, publicly imposed contact precautions, greater availability of rapid testing for COVID-19, social distancing, self-isolation when sick, and similar interventions. An estimated 4,029-11,420 excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care could be averted through aggressive critical care surge response and preparations, including high clearance of ICU and non-ICU critical care beds and extraordinary measures like using a single ventilator for multiple patients.ConclusionsUnless the epidemic curve of COVID-19 cases is flattened over an extended period of time, the US COVID-19 epidemic will cause a shortage of critical care beds and drive up otherwise preventable deaths. The findings here support value of preventive actions to flatten the epidemic curve, as well as the value of exercising extraordinary surge capacity measures to increase access to hospital critical care for severely ill COVID-19 patients.

scholarly journals Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir-Pouyan Zahiri ◽  
Sepehr RafieeNasab ◽  
Ehsan Roohi
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe growth and development of Covid-19 transmission have significantly cut the attention of many societies, particularly Iran that has been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In the present study, the known SIR model was used for the dynamics of an epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran statistical data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data of Iran. The results offered many important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time, and other characteristics.

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