A Step-By-Step Guide to the Black-Litterman Model Incorporating User-specified Confidence Levels

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Idzorek
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Levels

Speech-Language Pathologists' Perceptions of Their Preparation and Confidence for Providing Dysphagia Services

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1666-1682
Author(s):  
Lena G. Caesar ◽  
Merertu Kitila
Keyword(s):  
Service Delivery ◽  
Graduate School ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
The United States ◽  
Academic Preparation ◽  
Speech Language Pathologists ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Graduate School Preparation ◽  
Graduate Preparation ◽  
Significant Relationships

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of speech-language pathologists (SLPs) regarding their academic preparation and current confidence levels for providing dysphagia services, and the relationship between their perceptions of graduate school preparation and their current levels of confidence. Method This study utilized an online survey to gather information from 374 American Speech-Language-Hearing Association–certified SLPs who currently provide dysphagia services in the United States. Surveys were primarily distributed through American Speech-Language-Hearing Association Special Interest Group forums and Facebook groups. The anonymous survey gathered information regarding SLPs' perceptions of academic preparation and current confidence levels for providing dysphagia services in 11 knowledge and skill areas. Results Findings indicated that more than half of respondents did not feel prepared following their graduate academic training in five of the 11 knowledge and skill areas related to dysphagia service delivery. However, about half of respondents indicated they were currently confident about their ability to provide services in eight of the 11 knowledge and skill areas. Findings also indicated that their current confidence levels to provide dysphagia services were significantly higher than their perceptions of preparation immediately following graduate school. However, no significant relationships were found between respondents' self-reported current confidence levels and their perceptions of the adequacy of their academic preparation. Conclusions Despite SLPs' low perceptions of the adequacy of their graduate preparation for providing dysphagia services in specific knowledge and skill areas immediately following graduation, they reported high confidence levels with respect to their actual service delivery. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Record Linkage Theory and Practice: A Matter of Confidence

1997 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 150-155
Author(s):  
Peter Adman
Keyword(s):  
Record Linkage ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Recent Issue ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Multiple Pass ◽  
Linkage Rate ◽  
Paper Record ◽  
The City

In a recent issue of this journal (Vol.8 no.2) the paper ‘Record linkage theory and practice: an experiment in the application of multiple pass linkage algorithms’ by Charles Harvey, Edmund Green and Penelope J. Corfield described the advances the authors have made on their previously published work. By using a multiple pass methodology they increased the linkage rate between two successive polls (1784 and 1788) from one-fifth to nearly three-fifths of the voters in the parliamentary elections for the City of Westminster. This critique examines the validity of their claims with regard to the confidence levels attained.

The nature of metacognitive inefficiency in perceptual decision making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Medha Shekhar ◽  
Dobromir Rahnev
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Large Dataset ◽  
Substantial Body ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Continuous Scale ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Metacognitive Ability ◽  
Confidence Ratings

Humans have the metacognitive ability to judge the accuracy of their own decisions via confidence ratings. A substantial body of research has demonstrated that human metacognition is fallible but it remains unclear how metacognitive inefficiency should be incorporated into a mechanistic model of confidence generation. Here we show that, contrary to what is typically assumed, metacognitive inefficiency depends on the level of confidence. We found that, across five different datasets and four different measures of metacognition, metacognitive ability decreased with higher confidence ratings. To understand the nature of this effect, we collected a large dataset of 20 subjects completing 2,800 trials each and providing confidence ratings on a continuous scale. The results demonstrated a robustly nonlinear zROC curve with downward curvature, despite a decades-old assumption of linearity. This pattern of results was reproduced by a new mechanistic model of confidence generation, which assumes the existence of lognormally-distributed metacognitive noise. The model outperformed competing models either lacking metacognitive noise altogether or featuring Gaussian metacognitive noise. Further, the model could generate a measure of metacognitive ability which was independent of confidence levels. These findings establish an empirically-validated model of confidence generation, have significant implications about measures of metacognitive ability, and begin to reveal the underlying nature of metacognitive inefficiency.

Combating IPV With Community Leaders in Honduras: An Evaluation of an IPV Training Program Among Teachers and Health Professionals

2021 ◽  
pp. 107780122110089
Author(s):  
Chunrye Kim ◽  
Joel A. Capellan ◽  
Hung-En Sung ◽  
Eduardo Rafael Orellana
Keyword(s):  
Training Program ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Educational Opportunities ◽  
Safety Planning ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
The Impact

Intimate partner violence (IPV) among women in Latin America, including Honduras, is serious. To help IPV victims, a community-based educational program has been implemented. This study aims to examine the impact of IPV training among teachers and health care professionals ( n = 160) on increases in IPV knowledge, attitudes, and self-efficacy when dealing with IPV victims using a pretest and posttest design. We found that the treatment group who received IPV training showed significantly lower justification for IPV, higher gender equality attitudes, and higher IPV knowledge as well as higher confidence levels in identifying IPV victims and safety planning for victims. We concluded that the IPV training program using the community-based approaches has the potential to help IPV victims in Honduras. More efforts should be made to increase the educational opportunities the community members can receive.

scholarly journals Simulation-based Training for Pelvic and Breast Physical Examination: Effect on the Anxiety and Self-confidence of Medical Students

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 739-745
Author(s):  
Talles Dias Orsi ◽  
Ana Lucia Ribeiro Valadares ◽  
Paula Miranda Esteves Orsi ◽  
Isabella Miranda Esteves Orsi ◽  
Alexandre Sampaio Moura
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Student Anxiety ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Learning Satisfaction ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
Breast Examination ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Before And After

Abstract Objective To evaluate factors associated with anxiety and the effect of simulation-based training (SBT) on student anxiety, self-confidence and learning satisfaction in relation to pelvic and breast examination. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted with 4th year medical students at the Universidade José do Rosário Vellano. A 12-item, self-report questionnaire on student anxiety at performing gynecological examinations was applied before and after SBT, with answers being given on a Likert-type scale. After training, the self-confidence levels and satisfaction of the students related to the learning process were also evaluated. Results Eighty students with a mean age of 24.1 ± 4.2 years were included in the study. Of these, 62.5% were women. Pre-SBT evaluation showed that students were more anxious at performing a pelvic examination than a breast examination (2.4 ± 1.0 versus 1.7 ± 0.8, respectively; p < 0.001). The primary reason for anxiety regarding both pelvic and breast examination was fear of hurting the patient. SBT significantly reduced student anxiety (2.0 ± 0.8 versus 1.5 ± 0.5, respectively; p < 0.001). The satisfaction and self-confidence of the students were found to be high (6.8 ± 0.3 and 6.0 ± 0.9, respectively), with no difference between genders. Conclusion The use of SBT in teaching students to perform pelvic and breast examinations resulted in reduced anxiety and increased self-confidence in a group of medical students of both genders, with high levels of satisfaction in relation to the training.

scholarly journals Model Verification and Error Sensitivity of Turbulence-Related Tensor Characteristics in Pulsatile Blood Flow Simulations

Fluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Magnus Andersson ◽  
Matts Karlsson
Keyword(s):  
Blood Flow ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Flow Modeling ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Flow Simulations ◽  
Phase Averaging ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Cardiovascular Flow ◽  
Computational Fluid Dynamics Cfd

Model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification are essential procedures to estimate errors within cardiovascular flow modeling, where acceptable confidence levels are needed for clinical reliability. While more turbulent-like studies are frequently observed within the biofluid community, practical modeling guidelines are scarce. Verification procedures determine the agreement between the conceptual model and its numerical solution by comparing for example, discretization and phase-averaging-related errors of specific output parameters. This computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study presents a comprehensive and practical verification approach for pulsatile turbulent-like blood flow predictions by considering the amplitude and shape of the turbulence-related tensor field using anisotropic invariant mapping. These procedures were demonstrated by investigating the Reynolds stress tensor characteristics in a patient-specific aortic coarctation model, focusing on modeling-related errors associated with the spatiotemporal resolution and phase-averaging sampling size. Findings in this work suggest that attention should also be put on reducing phase-averaging related errors, as these could easily outweigh the errors associated with the spatiotemporal resolution when including too few cardiac cycles. Also, substantially more cycles are likely needed than typically reported for these flow regimes to sufficiently converge the phase-instant tensor characteristics. Here, higher degrees of active fluctuating directions, especially of lower amplitudes, appeared to be the most sensitive turbulence characteristics.

Reasoning Without the Conjunction Closure

Episteme ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Alicja Kowalewska
Keyword(s):  
Computational Complexity ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Cognitive Abilities ◽  
Rational Belief ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Confidence Levels

Abstract Some theories of rational belief assume that beliefs should be closed under conjunction. I motivate the rejection of the conjunction closure, and point out that the consequences of this rejection are not as severe as it is usually thought. An often raised objection is that without the conjunction closure people are unable to reason. I outline an approach in which we can – in usual cases – reason using conjunctions without accepting the closure in its whole generality. This solution is based on the notion of confidence levels, which can be defined using probabilities. Moreover, on this approach, reasoning has a scalable computational complexity adaptable to cognitive abilities of both rationally bounded and perfectly rational agents. I perform a simulation to assess its error rate, and compare it to reasoning with conjunction closure.

Knowledge-Based System for Estimating Incident Clearance Duration for Maryland I-95

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (14) ◽  
pp. 61-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsu Won ◽  
Hyeonmi Kim ◽  
Gang-Len Chang
Keyword(s):  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Incident Response ◽  
Knowledge Based System ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Incident Duration ◽  
Response Team ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Incident Reports ◽  
The Many

For incident response operations to be appreciated by the general public, it is essential that responsible highway agencies are capable of providing the estimated clearance duration of a detected incident at a level sufficiently reliable for motorists to make proper decisions such as selecting a detour route. Depending on the estimated clearance duration, the incident response center can then implement proper strategies to interact with motorists, ranging from providing incident information only to executing mandatory detouring operations. This study presents a knowledge-based system, based on detailed incident reports collected by the Maryland-CHART (Coordinated Highway Action Response Team) program between years 2012 and 2016, for such needs. The proposed system features the use of interval-based estimates derived from knowledge of historical data, with different confidence levels for each estimated incident clearance duration, and its rule-based structure for convenient updates with new data and available expertise from field operators. As some key variables associated with incident duration often only become available as the clearance operations progress, the developed system with its sequential nature allows users to dynamically revise the estimated duration when additional data have been reported. The preliminary evaluation results have shown the promise of the developed system which, with its invaluable historical information, can circumvent the many data quality and availability issues which have long plagued the applicability of some state-of-the-art models on this subject.

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