Keynes’s Logical, Objective, Relation of Probability, P(a/H)=α, Where α Is a Degree of Rational Belief, Has Nothing to Do With Truth: Both Orthodox and Heterodox Economists Fail to Realize That There Is No Such Thing as a True Probability, True Expectation, Or True Expected Value

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Rational Belief ◽  
True Probability

In Defence of the Dutch Book Argument

1985 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Davidson ◽  
Robert Pargetter
Keyword(s):  
Rational Belief ◽  
Dutch Book ◽  
Epistemic Probability ◽  
True Probability ◽  
Dutch Book Argument ◽  
Probability Calculus ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Probability Concept

A starting point for this paper is that there is at least one concept of probability, call it epistemic probability, which can be identified with belief or some sort of idealised belief (e.g., rational belief). If this identification is to be of any significance, then it needs to be shown that epistemic probability is a ‘true’ probability concept and is subject to those restrictions and requirements which relate and govern probabilities, which we call the probability calculus.The most rehearsed argument to establish the probability calculus for epistemic probabilities is the Dutch Book Argument (DBA). There are two intuitions behind the DBA. The first is that if we can find some fine-grained behavioural measure of epistemic probability, then we may be able to show that epistemic probabilities obey the probability calculus by showing that the behaviour is of a kind which is, as a matter of necessity, subject to certain limitations and restrictions.

The Expected Value Premium

CFA Digest ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-36
Author(s):  
Michael Kobal
Keyword(s):  
Expected Value ◽  
Value Premium

First-Year Engineering Computing Courses in Canadian Engineering Programs

1969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Maw ◽  
Janice Miller Young ◽  
Alexis Morris
Keyword(s):  
Problem Solving ◽  
Engineering Students ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Knowledge Development ◽  
First Year ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Engineering Programs ◽  
Digital Computation ◽  
Pedagogical Philosophies ◽  
Introductory Computing

Most Canadian engineering students take a computing course in their first year that introduces them to digital computation. The Canadian Engineering Accreditation Board does not specify the language(s) that can or should be used for instruction. As a result, a variety of languages are used across Canada. This study examines which languages are used in degree-granting institutions, currently and in the recent past. It also examines why institutions have chosen the languages that they currently use. In addition to the language used in instruction, the types and hours of instruction are also analyzed. Methods of instruction and evaluation are compared, as well as the pedagogical philosophies of the different programs with respect to introductory computing. Finally, a comparison of the expected value of this course to graduates is also presented. We found a more diverse landscape for introductory computing courses than anticipated, in most respects. The guiding ethos at most institutions is skill and knowledge development, especially around problem solving in an engineering context. The methods to achieve this are quite varied, and so are the languages employed in such courses. Most programs currently use C/C++, Matlab, VB and/or Python.

ANALISIS RISIKO OPERASIONAL MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN DISTRIBUSI KERUGIAN DENGAN METODE AGREGAT

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Y. ARBI ◽  
R. BUDIARTI ◽  
I G. P. PURNABA
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial Distribution ◽  
Binomial Distribution ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Loss Distribution Approach ◽  
Potential Loss ◽  
The Impact

Operational risk is defined as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes or external problems. Insurance companies as financial institution that also faced at risk. Recording of operating losses in insurance companies, were not properly conducted so that the impact on the limited data for operational losses. In this work, the data of operational loss observed from the payment of the claim. In general, the number of insurance claims can be modelled using the Poisson distribution, where the expected value of the claims is similar with variance, while the negative binomial distribution, the expected value was bound to be less than the variance.Analysis tools are used in the measurement of the potential loss is the loss distribution approach with the aggregate method. In the aggregate method, loss data grouped in a frequency distribution and severity distribution. After doing 10.000 times simulation are resulted total loss of claim value, which is total from individual claim every simulation. Then from the result was set the value of potential loss (OpVar) at a certain level confidence.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Wedgwood
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Mental State ◽  
Rational Belief ◽  
True Proposition ◽  
The Other ◽  
Relevant Notion

It is explained how the conception of rationality proposed earlier in this book can set the agenda for the study of rational belief and rational choice. Part of the task will be to investigate the kind of ‘rational probability’ that was introduced in Chapter 9; the other part will be to study the conditions under which each kind of mental state counts as ‘correct’. There are reasons for thinking that the relevant notion of correctness must be such that in the case of belief, a correct belief is a belief in a true proposition, and in the case of choice, it is ‘akratic’ to choose something if one is fully confident that it is not correct to choose it. It is explained what light this approach could shed on the traditional issues about rational belief and rational choice.

Is Rationality Normative?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Wedgwood
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Rational Belief ◽  
False Beliefs ◽  
Ought Implies Can ◽  
Normative Concept ◽  
Original Meaning ◽  
Formal Theories

In its original meaning, the word ‘rational’ referred to the faculty of reason—the capacity for reasoning. It is undeniable that the word later came also to express a normative concept—the concept of the proper use of this faculty. Does it express a normative concept when it is used in formal theories of rational belief or rational choice? Reasons are given for concluding that it does express a normative concept in these contexts. But this conclusion seems to imply that we ought always to think rationally. Four objections can be raised. (1) What about cases where thinking rationally has disastrous consequences? (2) What about cases where we have rational false beliefs about what we ought to do? (3) ‘Ought’ implies ‘can’—but is it true that we can always think rationally? (4) Rationality requires nothing more than coherence—but why does coherence matter?

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