The Information Content of Fundamental News vs. Traders’ Positions in Grain Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE and COT Reports

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bosch
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1521-1552
Author(s):  
Robert P Lieli ◽  
Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

AbstractWe study the existence of equilibria and the information content of prices in futures markets where the probability of future payoffs can be altered by an intervening agent who acts in response to the market price, hence creating a feedback effect. We focus on the market with the simplest possible structure: traders betting on the occurrence of a future event by buying or selling Arrow-Debreu securities (one dollar claims contingent on a binary outcome). We find that in the presence of feedback: (i) a rational expectations equilibrium may not exist; (ii) the market price may decline in response to information that is ex-ante more favorable to the occurrence of the underlying event; (iii) an equilibrium that reveals no information may obtain. Thus, feedback from an intervening agent materially alters the way in which price responds to information, and potentially undermines the viability of the market itself.


Author(s):  
T. L. Hayes

Biomedical applications of the scanning electron microscope (SEM) have increased in number quite rapidly over the last several years. Studies have been made of cells, whole mount tissue, sectioned tissue, particles, human chromosomes, microorganisms, dental enamel and skeletal material. Many of the advantages of using this instrument for such investigations come from its ability to produce images that are high in information content. Information about the chemical make-up of the specimen, its electrical properties and its three dimensional architecture all may be represented in such images. Since the biological system is distinctive in its chemistry and often spatially scaled to the resolving power of the SEM, these images are particularly useful in biomedical research.In any form of microscopy there are two parameters that together determine the usefulness of the image. One parameter is the size of the volume being studied or resolving power of the instrument and the other is the amount of information about this volume that is displayed in the image. Both parameters are important in describing the performance of a microscope. The light microscope image, for example, is rich in information content (chemical, spatial, living specimen, etc.) but is very limited in resolving power.


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