On the Possibility of Informative Equilibria in Futures Markets with Feedback

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1521-1552
Author(s):  
Robert P Lieli ◽  
Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Feedback Effect ◽  
Binary Outcome ◽  
Future Event ◽  
Rational Expectations Equilibrium ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Existence Of Equilibria

AbstractWe study the existence of equilibria and the information content of prices in futures markets where the probability of future payoffs can be altered by an intervening agent who acts in response to the market price, hence creating a feedback effect. We focus on the market with the simplest possible structure: traders betting on the occurrence of a future event by buying or selling Arrow-Debreu securities (one dollar claims contingent on a binary outcome). We find that in the presence of feedback: (i) a rational expectations equilibrium may not exist; (ii) the market price may decline in response to information that is ex-ante more favorable to the occurrence of the underlying event; (iii) an equilibrium that reveals no information may obtain. Thus, feedback from an intervening agent materially alters the way in which price responds to information, and potentially undermines the viability of the market itself.

scholarly journals Information Content of Earnings Managements: Implications on Growth and Value Companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Windu Mulyasari ◽  
Slamet Sugiri ◽  
Heyvon Herdhayinta
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Cycle Growth ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Management Behaviors

Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate the pattern of earnings management on growth and value companies in Indonesia. This study predicts that earnings management has information contents. Therefore, earnings management tends to degrade the quality of earnings, then affect the future profitability. This study analyzes the effect of earnings management information content to the company's future profitability. This study provides an understanding about accounting information at certain market price levels for growth and value companies. Findings: Findings of this study indicate the differences between earnings management influence on growth and value companies. The results also support the differences of relative incremental information content of earnings management on growth and value companies. The growth firms tend to do earnings management and have higher profitability compared to the value firms. The implication is that the incremental information content of earnings management on growth firms is lower than those of the value firms to predict future profitability.   Implication: The contribution of this research is to provide an in-depth review on earnings management study associated with company life cycle (growth and value), as well as  to give additional understanding about the existence of incremental information content of earnings management. Thus, firms show different earnings management behaviors and ultimately those behaviors affect the quality of profit to predict future earnings

scholarly journals Coordinating expectations through central bank projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
Luba Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Aggregate Stability ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ex Ante

AbstractCentral banks are increasingly communicating their economic outlook in an effort to manage the public and financial market participants’ expectations. We provide original causal evidence that the information communicated and the assumptions underlying a central bank’s projection can matter for expectation formation and aggregate stability. Using a between-subject design, we systematically vary the central bank’s projected forecasts in an experimental macroeconomy where subjects are incentivized to forecast the output gap and inflation. Without projections, subjects exhibit a wide range of heuristics, with the modal heuristic involving a significant backward-looking component. Ex-Ante Rational dual projections of the output gap and inflation significantly reduce the number of subjects’ using backward-looking heuristics and nudge expectations in the direction of the rational expectations equilibrium. Ex-Ante Rational interest rate projections are cognitively challenging to employ and have limited effects on the distribution of heuristics. Adaptive dual projections generate unintended inflation volatility by inducing boundedly-rational forecasters to employ the projection and model-consistent forecasters to utilize the projection as a proxy for aggregate expectations. All projections reduce output gap disagreement but increase inflation disagreement. Central bank credibility is significantly diminished when the central bank makes larger forecast errors when communicating a relatively more complex projection. Our findings suggest that inflation-targeting central banks should strategically ignore agents’ irrationalities when constructing their projections and communicate easy-to-process information.

scholarly journals Mean-Variance Analysis of Alternative Hedging Strategies

1972 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Holland ◽  
Wayne D. Purcell ◽  
Terry Hague
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Optimum Position ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Over Time

Much of the research in commodity hedging has concentrated upon the development of theoretical models describing the optimum position in cash and futures markets. Other studies have shown that the difference between current spot price and futures price represents the market price for storage, processing services, or both. The revenue stabilizing potential of futures markets for commodities with continuous as opposed to noncontinuous inventories has also received attention. However, very little work or literature is publicly available on how different hedging strategies actually would have performed for a particular commodity over time.

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