On the Immense and Severe Confusions and Muddles About the Nature Ofsubjective and Objective Probability in the Theory of Rational Expectations: Asubjective Probability (Distribution) Can Never Become an Objective Probability(distribution) or a True or a Correct Probability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Objective Probability

A NOTE ON MUTH'S RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS: A TIME-VARYING COEFFICIENT INTERPRETATION

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.A.V.B. SWAMY ◽  
GEORGE S. TAVLAS
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Objective Probability ◽  
Varying Coefficient Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Exact Representation ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Varying Coefficient ◽  
True Model ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

Under certain interpretations of its coefficients, a specified econometric model is an exact representation of the “true” model, defining the “objective” probability distribution. This note enumerates these interpretations. In the absence of the conditions implied by these interpretations, the econometric model is misspecified. The note shows that model misspecifications prevent the satisfaction of a necessary and sufficient condition for individual expectations to be rational in Muth's sense. Whereas restrictive forms of econometric models can give very inaccurate predictions, this note describes the conditions under which the predictions generated from time-varying coefficient models coincide with the predictions generated from the relevant economic theory.

Rational Expectations and Inflation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
French Revolution ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Nobel Lecture ◽  
Economic Decisions ◽  
The French Revolution

This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which the author was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. This book engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. It focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, the book finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition includes the author's 2011 Nobel lecture, “United States Then, Europe Now.” It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.

Determination of the Probability Distribution of the Mean Sound Level

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 543-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wojciech Batko ◽  
Bartosz Przysucha
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Sound Level ◽  
Function Form ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Logarithmic Mean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Estimation Of Uncertainty

AbstractAssessment of several noise indicators are determined by the logarithmic mean <img src="/fulltext-image.asp?format=htmlnonpaginated&src=P42524002G141TV8_html\05_paper.gif" alt=""/>, from the sum of independent random resultsL1;L2; : : : ;Lnof the sound level, being under testing. The estimation of uncertainty of such averaging requires knowledge of probability distribution of the function form of their calculations. The developed solution, leading to the recurrent determination of the probability distribution function for the estimation of the mean value of noise levels and its variance, is shown in this paper.

Increase Power Efficientand Reliability of Electrosupply of Consumers of Low Power

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Sadullayev Nasillo Nematovich ◽  
Safarov Alisher Bekmurodovich ◽  
Nematov Shuhrat Nasilloyevich ◽  
Mamedov Rasul Akif- Ogli
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Low Power ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Wind Flow ◽  
Wind Rose ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Wind Power Installation ◽  
Wind Energy Potential

This article assesses the wind speed data and wind energy potential in the Bukhara region of Uzbekistan. In article it is stated a principle construction "hybrid" a source of the electric power consisting from wind power installation with mechanical store of energy, the solar panel with аккумулятор in common working with an electric network. The speed and direction of the wind measured at a height of 10 m were analyzed by the Weibull probability distribution functionTo determine the direction of wind flow (wind rose), a graph in Matlab environment was constructed. The method of an estimation energy of efficiency of the objects eating from several energy sources is offered. It is proved efficiency of application of such source of the electric power low power consumers

The Micro and Macro of Managerial Beliefs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Barrero
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Heterogeneous Firms ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Consumer Welfare ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Managerial Beliefs ◽  
Growth Volatility

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three facts. (1) Managers are not over-optimistic: sales growth forecasts on average do not exceed realizations. (2) Managers are overprecise (overconfident): they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic after positive shocks and too pessimistic after negative shocks. To quantify the implications of these facts, I estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms use a subjective beliefs process to make forward-looking hiring decisions. Overprecision and overextrapolation lead managers to overreact to firm-level shocks and overspend on adjustment costs, destroying 2.1 percent of the typical firm’s value. Pervasive overreaction leads to excess volatility and reallocation, lowering consumer welfare by 0.5 to 2.3 percent relative to the rational expectations equilibrium. These findings suggest overreaction may amplify asset-price and business cycle fluctuations.

Prediction of Haemoglobin Level by Some Probability Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-88
Author(s):  
Govinda Prasad Dhungana ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Sapkota
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Hemoglobin Level ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Best Fit

 Hemoglobin level is a continuous variable. So, it follows some theoretical probability distribution Normal, Log-normal, Gamma and Weibull distribution having two parameters. There is low variation in observed and expected frequency of Normal distribution in bar diagram. Similarly, calculated value of chi-square test (goodness of fit) is observed which is lower in Normal distribution. Furthermore, plot of PDFof Normal distribution covers larger area of histogram than all of other distribution. Hence Normal distribution is the best fit to predict the hemoglobin level in future.

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