An Application of an Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive System in the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates. Evidence from Short, Medium and Long-Term Yields of the US Interest Rates.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Guirguis
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals THE TERM STRUCTURE OF CURRENCY HEDGE RATIOS

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (04) ◽  
pp. 525-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLAF KORN ◽  
PHILIPP KOZIOL
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Hedge Ratios ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Different Sources

This paper investigates the variance minimizing currency forward hedge of an exporting firm that is exposed to different sources of risk. In an empirical study, we quantify the corresponding hedge ratios of a "typical" German firm for different hedge horizons. Based on cointegrated vector autoregressive models of prices, interest rates and exchange rates, we show that hedge ratios decrease substantially with the hedge horizon for different currencies, reaching values of one half or less for a ten-years horizon. Our findings can partly explain underhedging of long-term exchange rate exposures and have important implications for the design of risk management strategies.

scholarly journals What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 202-219
Author(s):  
Anne G. Balter ◽  
Antoon Pelsser ◽  
Peter C. Schotman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structure Model ◽  
Term Structure Model

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amado Peirό
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Prices ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.

scholarly journals Yield curve dynamics with macroeconomic factors in Iberian economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Isabel Maldonado ◽  
Carlos Pinho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Future Evolution

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the bidirectional relation between the term structure of interest rates components and macroeconomic factors. Using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions we find evidence of a bidirectional relation between yield curve factors and the macroeconomic factors, with increased relevance of yield factors over it with increased forecasting horizons. The study was conduct for the two Iberian countries using information of public debt interest rates of Spain and Portugal and macroeconomic factors extracted from a set of macroeconomic variables, including indicators of activity, prices and confidence. Results show that the inclusion of confidence and macroeconomic factors in the analysis of the relationship between macroeconomics and interest rate structure is extremely relevant. The results obtained allow us to conclude that there is a strong impact of changes in macroeconomic factors on the term structure of interest rates, as well as a significant impact factors of the term structure in the future evolution of macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Thi Tran ◽  
Hoang Pham
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Developing Markets ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Developing Countries

This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.

scholarly journals GENERAL ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050002
Author(s):  
FRANCESCA BIAGINI ◽  
ALESSANDRO GNOATTO ◽  
MAXIMILIAN HÄRTEL
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Applied Mathematics ◽  
Mathematical Finance ◽  
Rational Model ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Working Paper ◽  
Social Discounting ◽  
The Relationship

We introduce here the idea of a long-term swap rate, characterized as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap (OIS) with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, (F. Biagini, A. Gnoatto & M. Härtel (2018) Affine HJM Framework on [Formula: see text] and long-term yield, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 77 (3), 405–441, F. Biagini & M. Härtel (2014) Behavior of long-term yields in a lévy term structure, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 17 (3), 1–24, N. El Karoui, A. Frachot & H. Geman (1997) A note on the behavior of long zero coupon rates in a no arbitrage framework. Working Paper. Available at Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5066730) , and the long-term simple rate (D. C. Brody & L. P. Hughston (2016) Social discounting and the long rate of interest, Mathematical Finance 28 (1), 306–334) as long-term discounting rate. Finally, we investigate the existence of these long-term rates in two-term structure methodologies, the Flesaker–Hughston model and the linear-rational model. A numerical example illustrates how our results can be used to estimate the nonoptional component of a CoCo bond.

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