scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of the EURO on the Economies of Some MENA Countries: An Empirical Investigation Utilizing a Time-Varying Model to Forecast the Level and Volatility of the US Dollar/EURO Exchange Rate

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abutaleb ◽  
Michael G. Papaioannou
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110529
Author(s):  
Ying-Sing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Rate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility: Asymmetric Effects

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Dobano
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Common Factors ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

This paper studies the evolution of the daily exchange rates volatilities of five european currencies against the US dollar. The aim of this paper is to perform whether there are common factors in the evolution of these exchange rates flexibles during stability and unstability periods. Several alternative models have been proposed in the literature o to the model time varying volatilities. In this paper, we fit two parametric models, GARCH and GJR-GARCH for the years 1992 to 1993 and 1995 to 1997. We will show how these models within-sample estimates of volatility can be captured asymetric effects of news, specially in periods with high speculation. Summarizing, we can conclude that these results have the atractive over the exchange rate flexible markets, particularly in the risk premium exchange rate manage.

scholarly journals Further Evidence on Asymmetry in the Impact of Oil Price on Exchange Rate and Stock Price in China using Daily Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Nazeer Ahmed ◽  
Ma Dingchou ◽  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact

The role of oil price on the macro-economy has been intensely researched. However, oil remains one of the most important energy sources for production. Concerning China, there are projections that the country’s energy consumption would have risen to 18 billion barrels per day in the next two decades. Given China’s heavy reliance on oil, we reexamine the impact of oil price on the US dollar-Renminbi rate and the Shanghai index using daily data from 4/01/2010 to 29/03/2021. In our analysis, we apply the Nonlinear ARDL technique in the presence of structural breaks and find that oil price has asymmetric impact on exchange rate and stock price in the short-run alone. However, the asymmetry is only in terms of magnitude and not in terms of effect direction. Oil price is found to appreciate the Renminbi vis-à-vis the US dollar and to increase stock price significantly both in the short-run. We find that accounting for structural breaks is necessary for cointegration in using oil price to explain both variables.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURS RUPIAH SEBELUM DAN SELAMA COVID-19

NIAGAWAN ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Pebri Hastuti ◽  
La Ane ◽  
Melati Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic was first announced by the government on March 2, 2020. COVID-19 has caused many impacts on various economic sectors in Indonesia. Not only in Indonesia but the impact of Covid-19 has disrupted world economic chains. In fact, it has the potential to cause an economic crisis in a number of countries if it is not dealt with quickly and appropriately. Especially in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States of America (US) which is increasingly weakening. This study aims to determine differences in the rupiah exchange rate before and during the co-19. The author uses library research instruments, documentation studies, internet browsing, where the data taken is secondary data from relevant agencies obtained from Bank Indonesia publications through Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, data obtained from Jisdor is the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. This study uses quantitative methods with data analysis tools used are different test methods namely Wilcoxon Test with the help of the computer program SPSS Version 21. Where the data is taken from 7 November 2019 to 28 February 2020 before Covid-19 and during Covid-19 on March 2 until June 30, 2020. The method aims to find out significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. The results of data processing showed that there were significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. So it can be concluded that the spread of Covid-19 in the community will further weaken the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US Dollar.

scholarly journals An Analysis the Rupiah Exchange Rates Effect Against the American Dollar and Inflation Against the Growth of Islamic Banking Mudharabah Deposits in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tho'in ◽  
Iin Emy Prastiwi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Positive Direction ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the effect of rupiah exchange rate on the US dollar (US dollar) and inflation on Mudharabah deposits of Islamic banking in Indonesia. This research is a descriptive quantitative study with secondary data. This study took samples at Islamic Commercial Banks and Islamic Business Units from January 2013 to December 2017. The analysis technique used was multiple linear regression analysis. Before conducting regression testing, the data were tested by classical assumption test, namely normality test, multicollinearity test, autocorrelation test, and heteroscedasticity test. The results in this study are the first rupiah exchange rate has a significant effect on Mudharabah deposits in a positive direction. This means that if rupiah exchange rate increases the impact on community activities in investing in Mudharabah deposits increases. The second is that iinflation has no significant effect on Mudharabah deposits, but has a relationship with a positive direction. This means that if the inflation increases, the impact on community activities in investing Mudharabah deposits also increases. Third, rupiah exchange rate and inflations are simultaneously affect on the Mudharabah deposits of Islamic banking in the amount of 59.9%. The implication is that the high rupiah exchange rate situation attracts investors to invest in Mudharabah deposits. The increase in the rupiah against the US dollar tends to cause multiplier effect which results in rising prices of commodity goods. High prices of commodity goods cause macro consumption to decrease, too because people tend to be efficient in consumption.

scholarly journals HAS FINTECH INFLUENCED INDONESIA’S EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-202
Author(s):  
Seema Wati Narayan ◽  
Sahminan Sahminan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Technology

The digital financial services industry or financial technology (FinTech) has emerged in Indonesia in recent years. The FinTech industry, although disruptive, promises among other things to reduce costs of, and improve access to, financial services. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of FinTech companies in Indonesia over the period 1998-2017. In particular, we investigate the impact of FinTech on the Indonesian exchange rate (Rupiah vis-a-vis the US dollar) and the inflation rate. Our results suggest that FinTech is able to reduce inflation and lead to a real appreciation of the Rupiah against the US dollar, although its effect on the exchange rate is delayed. We explain our results and discuss future research directions in the paper.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE FED’S UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY ON THE US FINANCIAL MARKET

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-158
Author(s):  
Silvia Trifonova ◽  
◽  
Svilen Kolev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the global financial crisis. The objective is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects of the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of quantitative easing (QE) and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes in the bond yields, the S&P 500 index, and the value of the US dollar through the interest rate, the portfolio balance, and the exchange rate channels. The findings show that the process of normalization of the monetary policy regarding the future interest rates path in the US under the Fed’s monetary policy must be carefully guided. It must be consistent with the macroeconomic conditions and the state of the financial sector. The impact on the developed and emerging markets must be considered as well, with the main aim of avoiding potential serious risks.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN COFFEE EXPORT PERFORMANCE TO THE GLOBAL MARKET USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-396
Author(s):  
Fadhlan Zuhdi ◽  
Nola Windirah ◽  
Achmad Subchiandi Maulanda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact

Coffee is Indonesia's mainstay export commodity in the plantation sector which has provided a lot of income for Indonesia. Over time, Indonesia's coffee exports have fluctuated due to the impact of globalization and other external factors such as world coffee prices, Indonesian coffee production, the US Dollar exchange rate, Brazilian coffee exports and Colombian coffee exports. Based on this, this study aims to analyze the performance of Indonesian coffee exports to the Global Market using time series data over a period of 29 years using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. The results showed that there were variables that had a short-term and unidirectional relationship with Indonesian coffee exports, namely the US Dollar exchange rate variable, Indonesian coffee production and Brazilian coffee exports.

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