Booms, Crises, and Recoveries: A New Paradigm of the Business Cycle and its Policy Implications

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie Cerra ◽  
Sweta C. Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
The Business Cycle

Learning over the business cycle: Policy implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 105115
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Luigi Iovino ◽  
Jennifer La'O
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Business Cycle

What drives pension reforms in the OECD?

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (102) ◽  
pp. 357-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roel Beetsma ◽  
Franc Klaassen ◽  
Ward Romp ◽  
Ron van Maurik
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Country Specific

SUMMARY Based on narrative identification, we construct a novel comprehensive dataset of pension reform measures in OECD countries from 1970 to 2017. We then study the timing of these measures. Our main and new result is that business cycle indicators are important for their timing: a worsening makes contractionary measures more likely and expansionary measures less likely. The demography matters only in the sense that the OECD-wide demography explains the general reform trend for a country. We find no evidence that country-specific or short-run demographic developments matter. We discuss a conceptual framework with adjustment costs of changing pension generosity that can account for both the reform responsiveness to the business cycle and the lack of responsiveness to changes in demographic forecasts. We also discuss potential policy implications of our findings.

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

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