scholarly journals Show Me the Money: The Monetary Policy Risk Premium

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali K. Ozdagli ◽  
Mihail Velikov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Policy Risk

scholarly journals Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ozdagli ◽  
Mihail Velikov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Policy Risk

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: A Critical Review from a Finance Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-140
Author(s):  
Winston W. Dou ◽  
Andrew W. Lo ◽  
Ameya Muley ◽  
Harald Uhlig
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
The Government

We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.

Multidimensional Assessment of Economies by the Level of Sovereign Risk Premium

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-27
Author(s):  
Sergey Drobyshevsky ◽  
Pavel Trunin ◽  
Lyudmila Gadiy ◽  
Mariya Chembulatova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
International Market ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Monetary Authorities

The analysis of the international market for credit default swaps (CDS) shows that the interdependence of sovereign CDS spreads is increasing and the market remains segmented. However, the reduction in the variation of sovereign CDS spreads means increased competition for capital and should be taken into account by monetary authorities of developed countries when they tighten monetary policy. The article shows a significant role of political risks in determining the level of sovereign risk.

scholarly journals The Effects Of Macroeconomic And Policy Uncertainty On Exchange Rate Risk Premium

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Angel Jimenez Martin ◽  
Rodrigo Peruga Urrea
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Theoretical Expression ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Currency Unions ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Policy Risk

The goal of this paper is to identify the main determinants of the risk premium in some European currency markets just before the EMU. To that extent, we start from Lucas (1982) exchange rate model and derive an analytical expression for the forward premium. This expression includes money and production variables and it is quite standard, except for the inclusion of macroeconomic policy risk. Under some standard assumptions, this formula simplifies substantially and becomes amenable to regression analysis. Then, using standard measures of money and production, as well as interest rate swaps as indicators of macroeconomic policy risk, the theoretical expression is estimated. We provide evidence suggesting that it is policy uncertainty, much more than fundamental macroeconomic uncertainty, which determined risk premium over the convergence process to the euro. Whether these results can be extended to similar experiences for other currency unions remains open for future research.

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