The Monetary Policy Risk Premium and Expected Bond Returns

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Sabol
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Policy Risk

scholarly journals Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ozdagli ◽  
Mihail Velikov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Policy Risk

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 441-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haifeng Guo ◽  
Alexandros Kontonikas ◽  
Paulo Maio
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We investigate the impact of monetary policy shocks on excess corporate bonds returns. We obtain a significant negative response of bond returns to policy shocks, which is especially strong among low-grading bonds. The largest portion of this response is related to higher expected bond returns (risk premium news), while the impact on expectations of future interest rates (interest rate news) plays a secondary role. However, the interest rate channel is dominant among high-grading bonds and Treasury bonds. Looking at the two components of bond premium news, we find that the dominant channel for high-rating (low-rating) bonds is term premium (credit premium) news. (JEL 44, E52, G10, G12) Received: March 25, 2019: Editorial decision: March 27, 2020 by Editor: Hui Chen. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy: A Critical Review from a Finance Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-140
Author(s):  
Winston W. Dou ◽  
Andrew W. Lo ◽  
Ameya Muley ◽  
Harald Uhlig
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
The Government

We provide a critical review of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy at central banks from a finance perspective. We review the history of monetary policy modeling, survey the core monetary models used by major central banks, and construct an illustrative model for those readers who are unfamiliar with the literature. Within this framework, we highlight several important limitations of current models and methods, including the fact that local-linearization approximations omit important nonlinear dynamics, yielding biased impulse-response analysis and parameter estimates. We also propose new features for the next generation of macrofinancial policy models, including a substantial role for the financial sector, the government balance sheet, and unconventional monetary policies; heterogeneity, reallocation, and redistribution effects;the macroeconomic impact of large nonlinear risk premium dynamics; time-varying uncertainty; financial sector and systemic risks; imperfect product market and markups; and further advances in solution, estimation, and evaluation methods for dynamic quantitative structural models.

Multidimensional Assessment of Economies by the Level of Sovereign Risk Premium

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-27
Author(s):  
Sergey Drobyshevsky ◽  
Pavel Trunin ◽  
Lyudmila Gadiy ◽  
Mariya Chembulatova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
International Market ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Monetary Authorities

The analysis of the international market for credit default swaps (CDS) shows that the interdependence of sovereign CDS spreads is increasing and the market remains segmented. However, the reduction in the variation of sovereign CDS spreads means increased competition for capital and should be taken into account by monetary authorities of developed countries when they tighten monetary policy. The article shows a significant role of political risks in determining the level of sovereign risk.

Liquidity Risk Premia in Corporate Bond Markets

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 1250006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank de Jong ◽  
Joost Driessen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Investment Grade

This paper explores the role of liquidity risk in the pricing of corporate bonds. We show that corporate bond returns have significant exposures to fluctuations in treasury bond liquidity and equity market liquidity. Further, this liquidity risk is a priced factor for the expected returns on corporate bonds, and the associated liquidity risk premia help to explain the credit spread puzzle. In terms of expected returns, the total estimated liquidity risk premium is around 0.6% per annum for US long-maturity investment grade bonds. For speculative grade bonds, which have higher exposures to the liquidity factors, the liquidity risk premium is around 1.5% per annum. We find very similar evidence for the liquidity risk exposure of corporate bonds for a sample of European corporate bond prices.

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