Characterizing Sovereign Credit Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uche Chiedozie Isiugo ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Zhengyi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Default Swap

scholarly journals THE INTERACTIONS AND TRADE-OFFS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (CDS) AND BOND SPREADS IN A DYNAMIC CONTEXT

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-488
Author(s):  
Ioannis A. Tampakoudis ◽  
Andrius Tamošiūnas ◽  
Demetres N. Subeniotis ◽  
Ioannis G. Kroustalis
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments of the sovereign indebtedness in the euro area. We employ an integrated price discovery methodology on a rolling sample, with the intention to shed light on whether the CDS spreads can trigger rises in bond spreads, and the relative efficiency of credit risk pricing in the CDS and bond markets. In addition, we attempt to depict the evolution of the price discovery process regarding the direction of influence from one market to the other. The rolling window analysis verifies that the price discovery process evolves over time, presenting frequent alternations concerning the leading market. We find that during periods of economic turbulence the CDS market leads the bond market in price discovery, incorporating the new information about sovereign credit risk faster and more efficiently than the bond market does. This regularity should be seriously considered by private and public participants as they make investment and funding decisions. Therefore, the motivation of our paper is to identify the dominant market in terms of price discovery during a period of economic turmoil and, thus, to provide insights for decision making to investment bodies and central governments.

scholarly journals Sovereign credit default swap spreads as tools of ensuring the international financial security of the Eurozone countries

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Default Swap

The article investigates the state of the Eurozone countries’ financial security in the context of the world economic environment globalization. For the purpose of this, financial security is considered in terms of institutional, instrumental, and interdisciplinary dimensions. The subject of research is the tools of the Eurozone countries’ financial security ensuring. The goal is to research the dependence of the financial activity of the euro area countries on the results of credit rating assessments by rating agencies using the credit default swap instrument in the context of the Eurozone countries’ financial security ensuring.The objective is the process of the Eurozone countries’ financial security ensuring in the context of the world economic environment globalization. General scientific methods are used, such as system analysis – to determine the peculiarities of the financial security ensuring,regression analysis - to determine the relationship between the spreads of sovereign credit default swaps and the eurozone credit rating class. The following results are obtained: on the basis of the regression analysis of the spreads of sovereign credit default swaps and the eurozone credit rating classindicators the influence of sovereign credit risk figure on investment attractiveness of the Eurozone countries is determined; the approaches of the credit default swaps usage in the context of the researching of the credit rating impact on the investment attractiveness of the sovereigns are systematized; examination of dependence between credit ratings and sovereign credit default swap spreads is applied as the main research tool. Conclusions: for the sake of the Eurozone countries’ financial security enhancement, the authors offer replacement of the credit ratings of leading credit rating agencies with alternative credit risk indicators : market assessments of credit risk, instruments for internal credit risk assessment and third party valuation, as well as the ways of strengthening the Eurozone’s financial security through the establishment of permanent threat monitoring system and estimation of their quantity and quality variables are suggested in the article.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 pandemic and sovereign credit risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Fong Pan ◽  
Xinjie Wang ◽  
Ge Wu ◽  
Weike Xu
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads using a large sample of countries.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors use a wide set of the sovereign CDS data of 78 countries. To measure the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors use the daily change of confirmed cases collected from Our World in Data. They use panel regressions to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign credit risk.FindingsThe authors show how sovereign CDS spreads have widened significantly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the most conservative estimate, a 1% increase in COVID-19 infections leads to a 0.17% increase in sovereign CDS spreads. Furthermore, this effect is stronger for developing countries and countries with worse healthcare systems. Government policies partially offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, although these same policies also lead to widening sovereign CDS spreads. Sovereign CDS spreads narrow dramatically several months after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the results suggest that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a massive shock to the global financial stability.Originality/valueThis paper provides new evidence that COVID-19 widens sovereign CDS spreads. The authors further show that this widening effect is felt most strongly in developing economies.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movement between Japan and ASEAN Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 6-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boonlert Jitmaneeroj ◽  
John Ogwang
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Risks ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
High Possibility

Japan is the most developed economy in Asia. However, it has been on record for being the most heavily indebted country among OECD countries. In many circumstances, the high sovereign debt level indicates a high possibility of sovereign credit risks associated with investment in government bond. The high sovereign credit risk may also generate a number of negative externalities for private businesses operating in the host country. This paper investigates whether sovereign credit risk of Japan as measured by its sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) can better predict and commove with sovereign credit risk of selected ASEAN countries. The bivariate VAR model was used to test for Granger Causalities among these countries SCDS premiums and correlation analysis to investigate co-movements between SCDS of these countries. The results indicate that Japan’s sovereign credit risks do not co-move with those of ASEAN countries, Furthermore, Sovereign credit risks of ASEAN countries tend to lead those of Japan as evidenced by unidirectional causalities from these countries to Japan. The overall suggestion is that sovereign credit risk of Japan is not likely to influence those of ASEAN. The paper concludes with some implications for businesses.

What Drives Systemic State Credit Risk? Evidence from the State Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-45
Author(s):  
Sheen Liu ◽  
Chunchi Wu ◽  
Chung-Ying Yeh ◽  
Woongsun Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
The State ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap

scholarly journals Sovereign CDS Premiums’ Reaction to Macroeconomic News: An Empirical Investigation

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Min Lu ◽  
Michele Passariello ◽  
Xing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap

We assess the efficiency of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market by investigating how sovereign CDS spreads react to macroeconomic news announcements. Contrary to the vast majority of the existing literature, one of our main findings supports the hypothesis that news announcements reduce market uncertainty and, thus, that both better- and worse-than-expected news lower CDS prices during our sample period. In addition, we find that CDS spreads respond differently to the four macroindicators across the three different regions. Our findings might help investors in these areas to interpret the surprises of macronews announcements when making decisions in CDS markets.

The Rise of Credit Default Swaps and Its Implications on Financial Stability

2018 ◽  
pp. 336-350
Author(s):  
Fatma Sezer Dural
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Credit Crisis ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
The Stability

The credit default swap market has experienced an exponential growth in recent decades. Though the fırst credit default swap contract was negotiated in the mid-1990s, the market has enjoyed a surge of popularity beginning in 2003. By the end of June 2013, the outstanding amount reached 24.3 trillion dollars. It is mostly used to transfer or to hedge credit risk. Concurrently with the global credit crisis, several shortcomings in CDS markets have appeared. One of the obvious questions is whether they affect the stability of financial markets. In this context after broader exhibition of credit default swaps market, speculative use of CDS, inception of central counterparty, and transparency of CDS market is handled. As a conclusion, it is true that the CDS market still has some weaknesses, but it is no more prone to be destabilizing than other financial instruments. This is shown in this chapter.

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