scholarly journals The Effects of External Shocks on the Business Cycle in China: A Structural Change Perspective

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Murach ◽  
Helmut Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

The Economic Situation: Annual Review : Chapter III. A Longer-Term Review

1970 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 33-46
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter begins by reviewing the position of the economy in relation to the business cycle; it goes on to comment on the behaviour of unemployment, briefly considers the question of structural change, and then discusses, at greater length, the stance of policy. It concludes by extending the forecast outlook to 1972 and illustrates some economic possibilities for the medium term.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effects of the Effect of Oil Price on Stock Markets in Four Asian Countries: Markov Switching Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 423-428
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Business Cycle

The Markov switching vector autoregressive model is a dynamic stochastic system with stochastic autoregressive parameters. This model able to measure a time varying problem when the variables undergoing regime switching. Structural change or shock is an ordinary fact in time series data. Some shocks have an important role under specific regimes in examining the business cycle contraction. Excluding changes in regime for the measurement of variance decomposition may produce biased results. Moreover, the parameters in the time series model might also have a structural change. Therefore, linear models are no longer suitable to be used in analyzing the financial model; and nonlinear time series models that are Markov switching models are proposed to solve these kinds of problems. A two regimes Markov switching vector autoregressive model is used in this study to analysis the time series data. The regime is dependent heterogeneous with varying the variance to detect every change of the business cycle. The correlations between oil price, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia stock price are examining using Markov switching model. The result shows that the regimes dependent models suitable to employ in study the asymmetric business cycle; and oil price have a negative relationship with the changes of the four selected Asian stock markets.

Einleitung

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Spree
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Processes Of Change ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
History Of ◽  
Individual Contributions ◽  
The Business Cycle

AbstractThis introduction to the special issue on “Cycles and Crises” offers in part a critical look at developments in economic theory that have diverted interest from the business cycle, now considered to be obsolete. To the contrary, we argue here that all economic crises including the most recent are based on cyclical downtrends that are reinforced, prolonged and transformed by externalities.Moreover, these pages present the thesis that cyclical downtrends turn into profound and long-lasting economic crises when they occur during phases of accelerated structural change in economy and society. Thus they happen simultaneously with political conflicts among the larger groups of winners and losers in the processes of change.These contributions question what, if anything, might be learned from the history of cycles and crises. Probably very little, because the desire for excessive profit prompts investors to ignore larger lessons. Instead, people brush aside whatever rules and guidelines are suggested by the study of history. Finally, individual contributions on the topic are briefly introduced.

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

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