Enhancing China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy

Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.

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Geothermal drives Kenya power sector boost

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db197999 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Electricity Generation ◽

Dominant Role ◽

Infrastructure Investment ◽

Power Sector ◽

Medium Term ◽

Content Type ◽

Grid Systems ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Domestic Power

Subject Kenya power outlook. Significance The government's geothermal generation programme is driving a structural change in the power sector. Plans are for electricity generation to roughly double to 3,000 megawatts (MW) over the next few years, with hydroelectricity losing its dominant role. Kenya's medium-term economic growth prospects turn on the success of the government's rising spending on infrastructure investment in the energy and transport sectors. Impacts Focus on industry sources (diesal, gas, coal) obscures the dominant role of bio-energy (firewood, charcoal) in the energy mix. Increasing the role for natural gas in domestic power sectors will be pushed by regional governments with new offshore finds. Policymakers will continue to advocate the efficacy of mini grid or off-grid systems to augment the limited reach of 'national' grids.

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Madagascar's Rajoelina will look to bolster mandate

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db243773 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

International Relations ◽

Medium Term ◽

Power Utility ◽

Content Type ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Future Growth

Significance President Andry Rajoelina's new political platform, Isika rehetra miaraka amin'i Andry Rajoelina (IRD), is fielding candidates across all 119 districts, while presidential runner-up Marc Ravalomanana has 109 candidates running under his Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) party. The bulk of the candidates, 515 in total, are running as independents. Impacts A failure by Rajoelina to pass a law on the recovery of illicit assets could strain international relations. A large independent contingent in parliament would make it difficult for Rajoelina to secure a stable majority. Reforming water and power utility Jirama over the short-to-medium term could have a major bearing on future growth prospects.

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Notes on the Current Development Problems and Growth Prospects of the Turkish Economy

New Perspectives on Turkey ◽

10.15184/s0896634600000133 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

pp. 37-50 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Korkut Boratav ◽

Oktar Türel

Keyword(s):

Structural Adjustment ◽

Balance Sheet ◽

Economic Policies ◽

Current Development ◽

Recent Past ◽

Medium Term ◽

Turkish Economy ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Second Period ◽

Dividing Line

It is the aim of these notes to make a balance sheet of the development problems which Turkey is currently facing and to assess medium-term growth prospects for the Turkish economy. Such a balance sheet necessitates a retrospective look into the recent past, in which a distinction should be made between the pre- and post-1980 periods since it was early in 1980 that a major reorientation of economic policies into an orthodox “structural adjustment” line took place. Hence we investigate roughly two seven year periods covering 1973-79 and 1980—86 (with more emphasis on the second period), being fully aware that with respect to certain variables the year 1980 may not always serve as a dividing line.

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North American Responses to the Global Downturn

National Institute Economic Review ◽

10.1177/002795011021100106 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 211 ◽

pp. F22-F24

Keyword(s):

North American ◽

Population Projections ◽

Fiscal Policies ◽

Medium Term ◽

The North ◽

The Us ◽

Corporate Borrowing ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

The Uk ◽

European Economies

The North American economies are expected to recover pre-crisis levels of output earlier than most of their European counterparts. The resilience of these economies is partly a reflection of factors underlying the trend rate of capacity growth. Population projections in North America are favourable for medium-term growth prospects, partly due to policies that tend to encourage highly skilled inward migration. At the same time, the US is one of few countries that maintained strong productivity growth during the downturn (at a significant cost in terms of employment), allowing an increase in US productivity levels relative to the other major economies. In addition, the relatively rapid recovery expected in the North American economies reflects more aggressive fiscal policies in the US and Canada than in most European economies, as well as credit easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve, which has kept corporate borrowing costs low relative to levels in the UK and Euro Area. Canada and Mexico have also benefitted from the recovery in the oil price, which eases budgetary pressures in particular.

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Russian Federation

IMF Staff Country Reports ◽

10.5089/9781513509693.002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (260) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Pension Reform ◽

Macroeconomic Policy ◽

Policy Framework ◽

Structural Constraints ◽

External Shocks ◽

Medium Term ◽

The Past ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Infrastructure Health

In recent years, the authorities have put in place a sound macroeconomic policy framework that has reduced uncertainty and helped weather external shocks. The current macroeconomic policy mix combines moderately tight monetary policy with a broadly neutral fiscal stance. The medium-term growth outlook remains modest due to structural constraints and sanctions. The authorities have implemented some politically difficult measures in the past year (pension reform and a VAT increase) and have announced plans aimed at raising productivity growth, including higher public spending on infrastructure, health, and education. To significantly increase Russia’s long-term growth prospects and reduce stagnation risks, deeper efforts are needed to address the large footprint of the state, overbearing regulation, and governance and institutional weaknesses.

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Republic of Azerbaijan

IMF Staff Country Reports ◽

10.5089/9781513514376.002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (301) ◽

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

Government Spending ◽

Banking Crisis ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Medium Term ◽

Balance Sheets ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Bank Balance Sheets ◽

Revenue Administration

Azerbaijan is recovering from a banking crisis and recession caused by a prolonged decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Monetary conditions remain tight under a de facto peg. Despite rising government spending, the fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2019 mainly due to firmer oil prices and improvements in revenue administration. Weaknesses in bank balance sheets, structural and policy rigidities, and institutional and governance deficiencies hinder medium-term growth prospects and weaken resilience to shocks.

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On the diagnostics of the current state of the Russian economy and its medium-term growth prospects

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-5-35 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 5-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

V. V. Mironov

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Domestic Demand ◽

Economic Situation ◽

Structural Policy ◽

Medium Term ◽

Market Conditions ◽

Russian Economy ◽

Current State ◽

Growth Prospects ◽

Policy Measures

The article assesses the situation in the Russian economy after a two-year recovery and the outlined signs of stagnation associated with both the slowdown of the global economy and the exhaustion of domestic sources of improved market conditions. The approaches to identifying the factors that initiate growth and are different from the factors that support it are considered. In this case, emphasis was placed on the factors of uncertainty of the economic situation and the lack of domestic demand. The approaches to accelerating growth based on macroeconomic and structural policy measures are formulated, forecasts of the Russian economy dynamics for the coming years are analyzed.

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Cook Islands

IMF Staff Country Reports ◽

10.5089/9781513555775.002 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (269) ◽

Author(s):

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Free Association ◽

Financial Sector ◽

High Income ◽

Regulatory Framework ◽

Policy Options ◽

Medium Term ◽

Cook Islands ◽

Debt Sustainability ◽

Income Status

A mission was requested by the New Zealand authorities to the Cook Islands to focus on policy options for transitioning to high-income status, financial sector stability and regulatory framework, and debt sustainability.1 It evaluated these issues in the context of the medium-term outlook and against the context of a recently developed fiscal framework. The Cook Islands is a self-governing territory in free association with New Zealand, but it is not an IMF member (Box 1).

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