Madagascar's Rajoelina will look to bolster mandate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance President Andry Rajoelina's new political platform, Isika rehetra miaraka amin'i Andry Rajoelina (IRD), is fielding candidates across all 119 districts, while presidential runner-up Marc Ravalomanana has 109 candidates running under his Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) party. The bulk of the candidates, 515 in total, are running as independents. Impacts A failure by Rajoelina to pass a law on the recovery of illicit assets could strain international relations. A large independent contingent in parliament would make it difficult for Rajoelina to secure a stable majority. Reforming water and power utility Jirama over the short-to-medium term could have a major bearing on future growth prospects.

Geothermal drives Kenya power sector boost

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Domestic Power

Subject Kenya power outlook. Significance The government's geothermal generation programme is driving a structural change in the power sector. Plans are for electricity generation to roughly double to 3,000 megawatts (MW) over the next few years, with hydroelectricity losing its dominant role. Kenya's medium-term economic growth prospects turn on the success of the government's rising spending on infrastructure investment in the energy and transport sectors. Impacts Focus on industry sources (diesal, gas, coal) obscures the dominant role of bio-energy (firewood, charcoal) in the energy mix. Increasing the role for natural gas in domestic power sectors will be pushed by regional governments with new offshore finds. Policymakers will continue to advocate the efficacy of mini grid or off-grid systems to augment the limited reach of 'national' grids.

Greek GDP growth in 2022 will rely on EU recovery aid

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Side ◽  
Digital Services ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The economic rebound from a 9% contraction in 2020 is mainly being driven by strong domestic demand supported by accommodative fiscal policies and higher-than-expected tourism revenues. However, the deteriorating epidemiological situation in Greece, and new COVID-19 variants expanding into Europe -- possibly resistant to vaccines -- pose risks to future growth prospects. Impacts Persistent supply-chain disruptions will slow down expansion in industrial output in 2022. Winding down the fiscal stimulus will narrow the primary budget deficit from 7.6% of GDP in 2021 to an estimated 1.2% in 2022. The primary budget deficit will widen in 2022-23 thanks to front-loading defence spending. Greater penetration of digital services is a positive side-effect of the pandemic. A deceleration in bank credit issuance could restrict corporate investment in 2022.

New measures will provide temporary relief for Greece

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Relief ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The new forecast is based on strong results in the second quarter, better-than-expected tourism revenues over the summer months and the approval of the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Commission in July. Mitsotakis also announced several new measures, including tax cuts to stimulate spending. Impacts High unemployment (14.2% of the labour force) and structural labour market weaknesses will constrain growth. Structural reforms lost momentum during the pandemic, dampening medium-term economic growth prospects. Public opposition to vaccination might necessitate new movement restrictions by year-end, inhibiting growth. Availability of a EUR30bn liquidity buffer will support sovereign ratings and investor interest in the short term. Short- and medium-term public debt refinancing risks remain low as 75% of debt stock is held by the official sector.

Corruption scandal claims new victims in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance The economic and political impacts from the Odebrecht bribery scandal are beginning to make themselves felt. As well as hitting President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity rating, the scandal has further reinforced public distrust in the country’s ruling elites. It is also negatively affecting this year’s growth prospects. Impacts Odebrecht and other Brazilian construction companies will find themselves excluded in Peru, opening opportunities for others. The bribery upset will lead to a slowdown in infrastructure investment in the short-to-medium term. There may have to be a major shake-up in the workings of agencies that oversee public investment bidding.

South Africa’s Eskom frailties will be put to the test

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Load Shedding ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Plant Maintenance ◽  
Term Energy

Subject Eskom's overhaul. Significance State-owned power utility Eskom does not expect to have to institute ‘load shedding’ (power outages) during the current nationwide lockdown to combat the COVID-19 outbreak, with demand for electricity dropping by as much as 9,500 megawatts since it began. Recurring load shedding has been required since January as Eskom struggles with capacity constraints and undertakes crucial plant maintenance, with Pretoria promising various measures to alleviate the energy production crisis. Impacts With uncertainty rampant given the lockdown and economic crisis, recent short-to-medium term energy projections may fall by the wayside. Eskom’s belated 'unbundling' is finally underway, with CEOs named for the transmission, distribution and generation subsidiaries. Ongoing policy and legislative uncertainty will further dampen confidence in Pretoria’s reform commitments among the country’s miners.

Tanzanian power sector goals may be attainable

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Environmental Concern ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Coal Reserves ◽  
Future Business

Subject Tanzania power sector outlook. Significance Basic development initiatives, including improved access to electricity, are vital for Tanzania's economic growth and poverty reduction goals. The pace and capacity of power-generating projects will largely determine the country's medium-term growth prospects. Impacts Tanzania's gas and coal reserves could provide quick sources of power but will raise environmental concern. Negotiations and disputes with current private-sector partners will provide insights into the future business climate. Innovations in off-grid options for power will provide opportunities for firms in rural areas if prices and access are viable.

Tough South Africa budget may keep downgrade at bay

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Early Retirement ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Skilled Staff

Significance The budget framework presented on February 20 provided a record 69-billion-rand (5-billion-dollar) rescue package for ailing power utility Eskom over three years. Despite measures to cut the large public-sector wage bill, growing revenue shortfalls have combined to lift deficit forecasts, while a longstanding expenditure ceiling has been raised. Impacts Plans to cap civil servants pay and perks will face opposition from the ANC’s trade union partners. An early retirement package for civil servants risks a possible exodus of more experienced and skilled staff. Efforts to overhaul SARS should result in improved revenue collection over the medium term but will prove costly in the interim.

Even if politicians deal, Lebanon faces a bleak future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Financial Strain ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Food Shortages

Significance The audit and wider structural economic reforms are preconditions for urgently needed foreign aid. Economic conditions in Lebanon are still worsening, with power cuts, food shortages and rising poverty. Impacts A new government would allow reform planning to resume and temporarily stall the decline of the currency. The easing of the global pandemic will somewhat reduce the financial strain, as Lebanon reopens its economy. Soaring poverty rates could provoke large-scale ‘bread riots’ in the coming months. Further devaluation of the currency will make poor Lebanese more dependent on sectarian protection and strengthen patronage. If the situation worsens, sectarian rural areas could revert to warlordism in the medium term.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

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