On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure with Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nassim Nicholas Taleb ◽  
Philip E. Tetlock
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Difference

Information support for expert evaluation of the states of the external environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Rasol Murtadha Najah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Variables ◽  
Decision Making Models ◽  
The Difference ◽  
State Of The Environment

This article discusses the application of methods to enhance the knowledge of experts to build a decision-making model based on the processing of physical data on the real state of the environment. Environmental parameters determine its ecological state. To carry out research in the field of expert assessment of environmental conditions, the analysis of known works in this field is carried out. The results of the analysis made it possible to justify the relevance of the application of analytical, stochastic models and models based on methods of enhancing the knowledge of experts — experts. It is concluded that the results of using analytical and stochastic objects are inaccurate, due to the complexity and poor mathematical description of the objects. The relevance of developing information support for an expert assessment of environmental conditions is substantiated. The difference of this article is that based on the analysis of the application of expert methods for assessing the state of the environment, a fuzzy logic adoption model and information support for assessing the environmental state of the environment are proposed. The formalization of the parameters of decision-making models using linguistic and fuzzy variables is considered. The formalization of parameters of decision-making models using linguistic and fuzzy variables was considered. The model’s description of fuzzy inference is given. The use of information support for environment state assessment is shown on the example of experts assessing of the land desertification stage.

A novel q-rung orthopair fuzzy TODIM approach for multi-criteria group decision making based on Shapley value and relative entropy

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-250
Author(s):  
Liuxin Chen ◽  
Nanfang Luo ◽  
Xiaoling Gou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Relative Entropy ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Shapley Value ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Similarity Measures ◽  
Entropy Measure ◽  
Shapley Values ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Difference

In the real multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems, there will be an interactive relationship among different decision makers (DMs). To identify the overall influence, we define the Shapley value as the DM’s weight. Entropy is a measure which makes it better than similarity measures to recognize a group decision making problem. Since we propose a relative entropy to measure the difference between two systems, which improves the accuracy of the distance measure.In this paper, a MCGDM approach named as TODIM is presented under q-rung orthopair fuzzy information.The proposed TODIM approach is developed for correlative MCGDM problems, in which the weights of the DMs are calculated in terms of Shapley values and the dominance matrices are evaluated based on relative entropy measure with q-rung orthopair fuzzy information.Furthermore, the efficacy of the proposed Gq-ROFWA operator and the novel TODIM is demonstrated through a selection problem of modern enterprises risk investment. A comparative analysis with existing methods is presented to validate the efficiency of the approach.

scholarly journals What’s in a (Change of) Name? Much—but Not That Much—and Not What Wiebe Claims

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoko Fujiwara ◽  
Tim Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Executive Committee ◽  
International Association ◽  
International Committee ◽  
Academic Standards ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Consultative Body

Abstract Donald Wiebe claims that the IAHR leadership (already before an Extended Executive Committee (EEC) meeting in Delphi) had decided to water down the academic standards of the IAHR with a proposal to change its name to “International Association for the Study of Religions.” His criticism, we argue, is based on a series of misunderstandings as regards: 1) the difference between the consultative body (EEC) and the decision-making body (EC), 2) the difference between the preliminary points of view of individuals and final proposals by the EC, 3) personal conversations, 4) the link between the proposal to change the name and the wish to tighten up the academic profile of the IAHR. Moreover, if the final decision-making bodies, the International Committee and the General Assembly, adopt the proposal, the new name as little as the old can make the IAHR more or less scientific. Tightening up the academic, scientific profile of the IAHR takes more than a change of name.

scholarly journals Developing an approach for decision making units integration using multi objective particle swarm optimization

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdorrahman Haeri ◽  
Kamran Rezaie ◽  
Seyed Morteza Hatefi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Decision Making Unit ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Decision Making Units

In recent years, integration between companies, suppliers or organizational departments attracted much attention. Decision making about integration encounters with major concerns. One of these concerns is which units should be integrated and what is the effect of integration on performance measures. In this paper the problem of decision making unit (DMU) integration is considered. It is tried to integrate DMUs so that the considered criteria are satisfied. In this research two criteria are considered that are mean of efficiencies of DMUs and the difference between DMUs that have largest and smallest efficiencies. For this purpose multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) is applied. A case with 17 DMUs is considered. The results show that integration has increased both considered criteria effectively.  Additionally this approach can presents different alternatives for decision maker (DM) that enables DM to select the final decision for integration.

Moderator role of old and new Y generation differences in the effect of perceptions of self-efficiency on decision-making strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasan Tutar ◽  
Ahmet Tuncay Erdem ◽  
Ömer Karademir
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Generation Y ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Generation Gap ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Difference ◽  
New Generation

Purpose There has been a rapid generational change in the business world in Turkey recently, and X generation managers are rapidly leaving their place to Y generation managers. In countries with relatively young populations such as Turkey, management in family businesses passes into the hands of Generation Y. This study aims to examine the moderator role of the difference between old and new generation Y in the effect of self-efficacy perceptions on decision-making strategies. Design/methodology/approach This research, which was designed according to the quantitative research method, was designed according to the cross-sectional survey model, one of the general survey models. The research data were collected from a sample of 441 family business managers determined according to the simple random sampling technique. The data were analyzed and interpreted with various statistical techniques. Data analysis was done with AMOS. 20 and International Business Machines statistical package for the social sciences 22 data analysis programs. Findings According to the analysis findings, there is a significant relationship between the participants’ self-efficacy perceptions and decision-making strategies. Research findings old and new generation Y managers have different decision strategies. The research results showed that the dominant self-efficacy perceptions of the Y generation affect their decision-making strategies. Research limitations/implications This research only examines whether the old and new generation Y perceptions have a moderator function in the relationship between the participants’ self-efficacy perceptions and decision-making strategies. The research is quantitative research limited to family businesses. The results can be compared by repeating the research with other variables and in different samples, for example, by researching in public institutions. In addition, the way of reflecting the differences in perception to the management can be subjected to deeper analysis with mixed studies. Practical implications One of the important reasons for the difference in people’s approaches to events is their personality structure. Generational differences, which have been discussed primarily in recent years, make themselves felt in working life. The new working models arising from the different perspectives of the Y generation differ from the traditional business models. Today, in traditional business models, the manager profile is usually the X generation. However, the process is moving toward gaining essential positions in the management levels of the new Y generation. They put traditional managers in a difficult situation with their impatient behavior and desire to climb the career ladder quickly. Social implications In the studies conducted on the Y generation, it is understood that they do not favor the classical management approach based on the command-command relationship. The sense of loyalty of the Y generation is low compared to other generations and their organizational commitment levels are weak. There are determinations that they attach importance to flexible working style and want to do business using digital technologies. They are highly motivated in setting vision and participating in strategic decisions in organizations. These features differ significantly from the X-generation managers who adopt the traditional management approach. Originality/value Both emotional and cognitive characteristics influence decision-making behavior. The generation gap which shows common personality structures in a certain period is an important predictor of decision-making strategy. Research results and related studies significantly affect the decision strategies of the generation gap. No research has been found comparing the old and new Y generations. In this respect, it is thought that the research will contribute to theory, practice and method.

scholarly journals P300 and Decision Making under Risk and Ambiguity

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Jiehui Zheng ◽  
Shenwei Huang ◽  
Haoye Sun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Event Related Potentials ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
P300 Amplitude ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Related Potentials ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Ambiguous Condition

Our study aims to contrast the neural temporal features of early stage of decision making in the context of risk and ambiguity. In monetary gambles under ambiguous or risky conditions, 12 participants were asked to make a decision to bet or not, with the event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded meantime. The proportion of choosing to bet in ambiguous condition was significantly lower than that in risky condition. An ERP component identified as P300 was found. The P300 amplitude elicited in risky condition was significantly larger than that in ambiguous condition. The lower bet rate in ambiguous condition and the smaller P300 amplitude elicited by ambiguous stimuli revealed that people showed much more aversion in the ambiguous condition than in the risky condition. The ERP results may suggest that decision making under ambiguity occupies higher working memory and recalls more past experience while decision making under risk mainly mobilizes attentional resources to calculate current information. These findings extended the current understanding of underlying mechanism for early assessment stage of decision making and explored the difference between the decision making under risk and ambiguity.

scholarly journals Neural signatures of value comparison in human cingulate cortex during decisions requiring an effort-reward trade-off

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam C Klein-Flügge ◽  
Steven W Kennerley ◽  
Karl Friston ◽  
Sven Bestmann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cingulate Cortex ◽  
Anterior Cingulate ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Caudal Portion ◽  
Neural Signature ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Neural Signatures

AbstractIntegrating costs and benefits is crucial for optimal decision-making. While much is known about decisions that involve outcome-related costs (e.g., delay, risk), many of our choices are attached to actions and require an evaluation of the associated motor costs. Yet how the brain incorporates motor costs into choices remains largely unclear. We used human functional magnetic resonance imaging during choices involving monetary reward and physical effort to identify brain regions that serve as a choice comparator for effort-reward trade-offs. By independently varying both options' effort and reward levels, we were able to identify the neural signature of a comparator mechanism. A network involving supplementary motor area (SMA) and the caudal portion of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) encoded the difference in reward (positively) and effort levels (negatively) between chosen and unchosen choice options. We next modelled effort-discounted subjective values using a novel behavioural model. This revealed that the same network of regions involving dACC and SMA encoded the difference between the chosen and unchosen options' subjective values, and that activity was best described using a concave model of effort-discounting. In addition, this signal reflected how precisely value determined participants' choices. By contrast, separate signals in SMA and ventro-medial PFC (vmPFC) correlated with participants' tendency to avoid effort and seek reward, respectively. This suggests that the critical neural signature of decision-making for choices involving motor costs is found in human cingulate cortex and not vmPFC as typically reported for outcome-based choice. Furthermore, distinct frontal circuits ‘drive’ behaviour towards reward-maximization and effort-minimization.Significance StatementThe neural processes that govern the trade-off between expected benefits and motor costs remain largely unknown. This is striking because energetic requirements play an integral role in our day-to-day choices and instrumental behaviour, and a diminished willingness to exert effort is a characteristic feature of a range of neurological disorders. We use a new behavioural characterization of how humans trade-off reward-maximization with effort-minimization to examine the neural signatures that underpin such choices, using BOLD MRI neuroimaging data. We find the critical neural signature of decision-making, a signal that reflects the comparison of value between choice options, in human cingulate cortex, whereas two distinct brain circuits ‘drive’ behaviour towards reward-maximization or effort-minimization.

scholarly journals Towards a More General Understanding of the Algorithmic Utility of Recurrent Connections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett W. Larsen ◽  
Shaul Druckmann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Neural Circuits ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Feedforward Networks ◽  
Population Activity ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Recurrent Connections

AbstractLateral and recurrent connections are ubiquitous in biological neural circuits. The strong computational abilities of feedforward networks have been extensively studied; on the other hand, while certain roles for lateral and recurrent connections in specific computations have been described, a more complete understanding of the role and advantages of recurrent computations that might explain their prevalence remains an important open challenge. Previous key studies by Minsky and later by Roelfsema argued that the sequential, parallel computations for which recurrent networks are well suited can be highly effective approaches to complex computational problems. Such “tag propagation” algorithms perform repeated, local propagation of information and were introduced in the context of detecting connectedness, a task that is challenging for feedforward networks. Here, we advance the understanding of the utility of lateral and recurrent computation by first performing a large-scale empirical study of neural architectures for the computation of connectedness to explore feedforward solutions more fully and establish robustly the importance of recurrent architectures. In addition, we highlight a tradeoff between computation time and performance and demonstrate hybrid feedforward/recurrent models that perform well even in the presence of varying computational time limitations. We then generalize tag propagation architectures to multiple, interacting propagating tags and demonstrate that these are efficient computational substrates for more general computations by introducing and solving an abstracted biologically inspired decision-making task. More generally, our work clarifies and expands the set of computational tasks that can be solved efficiently by recurrent computation, yielding hypotheses for structure in population activity that may be present in such tasks.Author SummaryLateral and recurrent connections are ubiquitous in biological neural circuits; intriguingly, this stands in contrast to the majority of current-day artificial neural network research which primarily uses feedforward architectures except in the context of temporal sequences. This raises the possibility that part of the difference in computational capabilities between real neural circuits and artificial neural networks is accounted for by the role of recurrent connections, and as a result a more detailed understanding of the computational role played by such connections is of great importance. Making effective comparisons between architectures is a subtle challenge, however, and in this paper we leverage the computational capabilities of large-scale machine learning to robustly explore how differences in architectures affect a network’s ability to learn a task. We first focus on the task of determining whether two pixels are connected in an image which has an elegant and efficient recurrent solution: propagate a connected label or tag along paths. Inspired by this solution, we show that it can be generalized in many ways, including propagating multiple tags at once and changing the computation performed on the result of the propagation. To illustrate these generalizations, we introduce an abstracted decision-making task related to foraging in which an animal must determine whether it can avoid predators in a random environment. Our results shed light on the set of computational tasks that can be solved efficiently by recurrent computation and how these solutions may appear in neural activity.

scholarly journals Variability in Thyroid Cancer Multidisciplinary Team Meeting Recommendations Is Not Explained by Standard Variables: Outcomes of a Single Centre Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 4150
Author(s):  
Mark E. Fenton ◽  
Sarah A. Wade ◽  
Bibi N. Pirrili ◽  
Zsolt J. Balogh ◽  
Christopher W. Rowe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Total Thyroidectomy ◽  
Multidisciplinary Team ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Completion Thyroidectomy ◽  
Measured Variable ◽  
T1 And T2 ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Therapeutic Decision Making

Multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings are the mainstay of the decision-making process for patients presenting with complex clinical problems such as papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Adherence to guidelines by MDTs has been extensively investigated; however, scarce evidence exists on MDT performance and variability where guidelines are less prescriptive. We evaluated the consistency of MDT management recommendations for T1 and T2 PTC patients and explored key variables that may influence therapeutic decision making. A retrospective review of the prospective database of all T1 and T2 PTC patients discussed by the MDT was conducted between January 2016 and May 2021. Univariate analysis (with Bonferroni correction significance calculated at p < 0.006) was performed to establish clinical variables linked to completion thyroidectomy and Radioactive iodine (RAI) recommendations. Of 468 patients presented at thyroid MDT, 144 pT1 PTC and 118 pT2 PTC met the selection criteria. Only 18% (n = 12) of pT1 PTC patients initially managed with hemithyroidectomy were recommended completion thyroidectomy. Mean tumour diameter was the only variable differing between groups (p = 0.003). pT2 patients were recommended completion thyroidectomy in 66% (n = 16) of instances. No measured variable explained the difference in recommendation. pT1 patients initially managed with total thyroidectomy were not recommended RAI in 71% (n = 55) of cases with T1a status (p = 0.001) and diameter (p = 0.001) as statistically different variables. For pT2 patients, 60% (n = 41) were recommended RAI post-total thyroidectomy, with no differences observed among groups. The majority of MDT recommendations were concordant for patients with similar measurable characteristics. Discordant recommendations for a small group of patients were not explained by measured variables and may have been accounted for by individual patient factors. Further research into the MDT decision-making process is warranted.

A Review of Scott E. Page's The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies

2010 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannis M Ioannides
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Science Writing ◽  
Economic Science ◽  
Social Significance ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Princeton University ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Measurement And Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Of Policies

This assessment of Scott Page's The Difference (Princeton University Press, 2007) emphasizes the depth and breadth of the book's coverage and arguments and checks them against existing empirical evidence, when available. It argues that the book navigates artfully between being a “manifesto” for diversity and rigorous science writing while at the same time marketing economic science in new ways. The review welcomes the book's popularization of richer aspects of everyday decision making, individual and collective, and its making an excellent case for the social significance of abstract economic theorizing, especially about problem solving. It praises the book's lively interpretations of statistical tools of decision making by means of enticing narratives. The book's rhetoric urges us to move beyond accepting diversity as a matter of taste, or even because of its beneficial effects on the “production function,” and ultimately adopts its powerful logic. It speculates that the book's true impact will likely come after thorough empirical research. In empirical endeavors, issues of definition, especially of identity and of measurement, and evaluation of policies that would enhance diversity would be decisive. In democratic societies, policies may pose new dilemmas as they benefit from public interest in overcoming the accumulation of past disadvantages. (JEL D23, Z13)

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