scholarly journals The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Autor ◽  
David Dorn ◽  
Gordon H. Hanson
2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (6) ◽  
pp. 2121-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Autor ◽  
David Dorn ◽  
Gordon H Hanson

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other high-income countries. Rising imports cause higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries. In our main specification, import competition explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in US manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in more trade-exposed labor markets. (JEL E24, F14, F16, J23, J31, L60, O47, R12, R23)


Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 1071-1112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Burstein ◽  
Gordon Hanson ◽  
Lin Tian ◽  
Jonathan Vogel

In this paper, we study how occupation (or industry) tradability shapes local labor‐market adjustment to immigration. Theoretically, we derive a simple condition under which the arrival of foreign‐born labor into a region crowds native‐born workers out of (or into) immigrant‐intensive jobs, thus lowering (or raising) relative wages in these occupations, and we explain why this process differs within tradable versus within nontradable activities. Using data for U.S. commuting zones over the period 1980–2012, we find—consistent with our theory—that a local influx of immigrants crowds out employment of native‐born workers in more relative to less immigrant‐intensive nontradable jobs, but has no such effect across tradable occupations. Further analysis of occupation labor payments is consistent with adjustment to immigration within tradables occurring more through changes in output (versus changes in prices) when compared to adjustment within nontradables, thereby confirming our model's theoretical mechanism. We then use the model to explore the quantitative consequences of counterfactual changes in U.S. immigration on real wages at the occupation and region level.


2020 ◽  
pp. 016001762096484
Author(s):  
Eunbi Kim

This study investigates the local labor market effects of automotive foreign direct investment (FDI) in Alabama in the wake of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Of particular interest is the effect of FDI originating from a nontraditional source country in comparison to investments by European and Japanese firms. Using 2005–2011 American Community Survey (ACS) data, we compare changes in employment rates and median weekly wages in three area types: areas with Korean FDI, areas with German and Japanese FDI and areas without FDI. Results show that Korean FDI leads to increased employment rates but decreased median weekly wages. We attribute these findings to price competitive strategies of Korean firms.


2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruopeng An ◽  
Junyi Liu

Being physically active is a key health promotion strategy. The late-2000s economic downturn, labeled the “Great Recession,” could have profound impact on individuals' health behaviors including engagement in physical activity. We investigated the relationship between local labor market fluctuations and physical activity among adults 18 years and older in the United States by linking individual-level data in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 1990–2009 waves to unemployment rate data by residential county and survey month/year. The association between labor market fluctuations and physical activity was examined in multivariate regressions with county and month/year fixed effects. Deteriorating labor market conditions were found to predict decreases in physical activity—a one percentage point increase in monthly county unemployment rate was on average associated with a reduction in monthly moderate-intensity physical activity of 0.18 hours. There was some preliminary evidence on the heterogeneous responses of physical activity to local labor market fluctuations across age and income groups and races/ethnicities. Findings of this study suggest special attentions to be paid to the potential detrimental impact of major recessions on physical activity. This correlational study has design and measurement limitations. Future research with longitudinal or experimental study design is warranted.


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