scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications

Shifting Drivers of Growth: Policy Implications for ASEAN-5

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kong Yam Tan ◽  
Tilak Abeysinghe ◽  
Khee Giap Tan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Export Destination

How the old saying “when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold” holds true has been the subject of many research papers on global and country group business cycle synchronization and divergence. Instead of business cycle linkages, however, this paper examines the evolution of the dependence of ASEAN-5 and other Asian economies on their traditional and emerging growth engines (the United States, EU, Japan, China, and India). For this we use a structural vector autoregression model that yields time-varying growth multiplier effects. Although China has overtaken others as a major export destination for ASEAN-5 and despite the United States losing much of its relative economic clout in Asia, the multiplier effects show that the United States is still about 1.5 times more growth-enhancing than China for ASEAN-5. The EU has also not lost out completely to China as a growth engine. China, however, has overtaken Japan to become about 1.88 times more growth enhancing than Japan for ASEAN-5. India has yet to become a significant growth engine, although it is of increasing importance to Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These results call for new initiatives to balance the rising over-dependence on China.

scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Reply

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 314-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Weighting Schemes ◽  
Wide Variability ◽  
Posted Price

We address how using different censoring thresholds and imputation procedures affects the baseline results of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015). Higher censoring thresholds introduce measure ment error and outliers that generate wide variability in results across weighting schemes, but methods that explicitly control for outliers confirm the results of Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015) for all censoring thresholds. We also illustrate how the BLS’s approach to imputing missing prices can introduce a cyclical bias into measures of posted price inflation when store-switching is present in the data. (JEL D12, E31, E32, L25, L81)

scholarly journals Expectations, employment and prices: A suggested interpretation of the new ‘Farmerian’ economics

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Marco Guerrazzi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Search Mechanism ◽  
Empirical Implications

This paper aims at providing a critical assessment of the new ‘Farmerian’ economics, i.e. the recent Farmer’s attempt to provide a new microfoundation of the General Theory grounded on modern search and business cycle theories. Specifically, I develop a theoretical model that summarizes the main arguments of the suggested approach by showing that a special importance has to be attached to the search mechanism, the choice of units and ‘animal spirits’ modelling. Thereafter, referring to selfmade real-business-cycle experiments, I discuss the main empirical implications of the resulting framework. Finally, I consider its policy implications by stressing the problematic nature of demand management interventions and the advisability of extending the role of the central bank in preventing financial bubbles and crashes.

scholarly journals 1Are Some Groups More Vulnerable to Business Cycle Shocks than Others? A Regional Analysis of Pakistan’s Labor Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 199-231
Author(s):  
Mehak Ejaz ◽  
Kalim Hyder
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Social Innovation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups

This study identifies the extent to which various socioeconomic groups are vulnerable to aggregate business cycle fluctuations. Socioeconomic groups are classified by gender, location, employment status, education, income and age cohort. The asymmetric behavior of aggregate economic growth indicates that some groups gain less during recovery and boom phases and are thus most vulnerable to recessions. A vulnerability index in calculated for different socioeconomic groups and the empirical results show that employers with a graduate degree in Balochistan are the most vulnerable group and that female workers are more vulnerable than male workers. Additionally, the study employs panel data on inflation and employment to investigate the implications of macroeconomic fluctuations on vulnerable groups. The results indicate that food inflation has a strong negative impact on real earnings, while nonfood inflation increases real earnings. The panel data and vulnerability index findings are consistent with each other. The study also presents policy implications for existing public social safety net programs and prospective private social innovation programs targeting vulnerable households.

scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (207) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications

Learning over the business cycle: Policy implications

2020 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 105115
Author(s):  
George-Marios Angeletos ◽  
Luigi Iovino ◽  
Jennifer La'O
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Business Cycle

Welfare Effect of Productivity Shocks and Policy Implications in a Small Open Economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 290-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard E. Ericson ◽  
Xuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Policy Implication ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Welfare Effect ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Shocks

Abstract We examine the welfare effect and policy implications of productivity shocks in a small open economy. With real business cycle models, productivity shocks are generally welfare improving. However, once we assign a big role to financial frictions, productivity shocks may become welfare deteriorating. These results are robust. Moreover, the policy implication hinges on preferences, policy specifications, and financial frictions.

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