Fiscal Sustainability and Structural Reforms – Incorporating Labour Supply Responses in Long-Term Modelling

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Kleen ◽  
Thomas Pettersson
Keyword(s):  
Labour Supply ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Structural Reforms

scholarly journals Riding the Storm

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhan Cevik ◽  
Vibha Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
The Caribbean

Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge for small economies with high debt and greater vulnerability to climate change. This paper applies the model-based sustainability test for fiscal policy in a panel of 16 Caribbean countries during the period 1980–2018. The results indicate that the coefficient on lagged government debt is positive and statistically significant, implying that fiscal policy in the Caribbean takes corrective actions to counteract an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Nonlinear estimations, however, show that the quadratic debt parameter is negative, which indicates that fiscal policy response is not adequate to ensure sustainability at higher levels of debt. We also find that the fiscal stance tends to be countercyclical on average during the sample period. These empirical results confirm that maintaining prudent fiscal policies and implementing growth-enhancing structural reforms are necessary to build fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability with high probability even when negative shocks occur over the long term.

Major Approaches to Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 577-583
Author(s):  
L. A. Tuaeva ◽  
I. Z. Toguzova ◽  
S. K. Tokaeva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Universal System ◽  
Russian Scientific ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
State And Local

The presented study develops theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing the fiscal sustainability of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in perspective.Aim. The study aims to develop a systems approach to assessing the fiscal sustainability of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the medium and long term.Tasks. The authors analyze the major approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects and determine the significance of quantitative and qualitative assessment methods in the development of a methodology for assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects in the medium and long term.Methods. This study uses scientific methods of cognition, analysis and synthesis, comparison and analogy, systems and institutional approaches to assess the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects.Results. The authors examine the major approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects developed by Russian scientific schools and disciplines; approaches used by state and local authorities; approaches to assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects used by international and national rating agencies; foreign experience. In general, this implies the development of a universal system of indicators for assessing the fiscal sustainability of federal subjects.Conclusions. It is substantiated that under the current conditions of new challenges, particularly in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, it is necessary to assess the long-term balance and sustainability of the budgets of federal subjects using a systems approach based on quantitative and qualitative methods, making allowance for the medium- and long-term prospects to make efficient management decisions at different levels of the economic system.

The Quantification of Structural Reforms in OECD Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balázs Égert ◽  
Peter Gal
Keyword(s):  
Product Market ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Product Market Regulation ◽  
The Impact

This chapter describes and discusses a new supply-side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment, and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the chapter finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the five- to ten-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materializes at a shorter horizon.

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10276
Author(s):  
María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera ◽  
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Sustainability Controlling ◽  
Aging Societies

Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge in the Euro Area (EA) countries after the sharp rise in public debt-to-GDP ratios in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Using data from 11 EA countries over the period 1980–2019, we apply panel data techniques to examine the effects of population aging on fiscal sustainability, controlling for key macroeconomic variables. Our results suggest that the discretionary fiscal policy is strongly persistent, not being consistent with long-term fiscal solvency. Moreover, our results indicate that the fiscal stance is countercyclical for the countries under study and that population aging poses a major challenge for fiscal sustainability. The findings are robust to a different grouping of countries within the sample (core and peripheral countries, relatively old and young countries, and relatively more and less indebted countries). We consider that our results may have some practical meaning for national policymakers and international organizations responsible for regional and global fiscal surveillance and might shed some light on the possible effects that population aging could have on the effort of EA countries to restore public finances on a sustainable basis.

scholarly journals Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of Government Finances in European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
Yuriy Melnykov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of government finances in the 27 EU countries and Norway using an empirical, statistical approach and ADF tests for a unit root in the time series of the differences between the GDP growth rate and the long-term interest rate, and the primary balance.

Eurozonization of the Chinese Economy: How Do Intergovernmental Transfers Affect Local Government Debt in China?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Lu ◽  
Huiyong Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Fiscal Transfers ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Government Financing ◽  
Per Capita

China's local government debt has risen dramatically bringing risks to China's fiscal sustainability and long term economic growth. Using urban construction investment bonds (UCIBs) issued by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), we study how intergovernmental fiscal transfers impact the issuance of UCIBs under China's unitary currency system. Applying instrumental variable estimation, we find that special-purpose fiscal transfers per capita are positively associated with the issuance of UCIBs. A one-RMB increase in special-purpose fiscal transfers per capita is associated with an increase in the issuance of UCIBs per capita of 0.282 RMB, whereas regular fiscal transfers (including tax rebates and general fiscal transfers) do not affect the issuance of UCIBs. Furthermore, the effect of special-purpose fiscal transfers on the issuance of UCIBs mainly exists in inland cities rather than coastal cities. This imposes risks of “eurozonization” for the Chinese economy. We also find a deterioration of refinancing in terms of issuing more UCIBs.

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